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10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 08:28:44

pstarr wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:When we run out of oil, we will have to have most people work as farmers again.

That assumes people have the tools and land to farm without oil. It also implies the existence of simple transport/manufacturing devices (that operate without oil) that can make and repair those simple tools. What does that look like?

People will start using physical labor to harvest food again as this video demonstrates...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugSO54WKm8I
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 09:21:23

D - "People will start using physical labor to harvest food again". Harvesting is only part of the process. There's a fair bit of cheap labor available today available for some harvesting. So here's the tricky part: who is going to pay the landowners for the right to use their property? Or will they control the land and if so who is going to pay for all that manpower? If that’s the landowner’s responsibility where is he going to get the money? And where is he going get the money for the seeds and fertilizers needed to grow crops? Oh, of course, he’ll get that from his revenue selling his crops. So here’s the big question: how much will it cost to produce a bushel of wheat using raw manpower vs using machinery? Have you figured out how many man hours it would take to plant and harvest 20,000 acres of wheat? And what would you pay those field workers per hour? And if that amount is much greater then it cost today to do with machinery then you see a future where hand grown and harvested produce will cost significantly more than it does today, right?

It always amazes me when folks appear to think that manpower is cheaper than fossil fuel power. I wish someone with a farming background would chime in and give their best estimate of the man-hours needed to produce the same crop they are creating today with machinery. They we could approximate how little he would have to pay the field workers or, conversely, how much more he would have to charge for his crop just to break even. I don’t mean to be rude but folks who have never worked crops 100% by hand have no freaking idea what they are talking about.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 13:42:14

I wish someone with a farming background would chime in and give their best estimate of the man-hours needed to produce the same crop they are creating today with machinery.


RM - I know you only have the time to hang out on one energy forum, but over at Peakoilbarrel, Old Farmer Mac is a frequent contributor. He constantly provides an experienced and well-educated production farmer's perspective on oil, energy, capex, and labor as it relates growing stuff. Kind of an ag equivalent to RM:) Ask him - he'll give you the straight answer.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 15:04:46

ROCKMAN wrote:D - "People will start using physical labor to harvest food again". Harvesting is only part of the process. There's a fair bit of cheap labor available today available for some harvesting. So here's the tricky part: who is going to pay the landowners for the right to use their property? Or will they control the land and if so who is going to pay for all that manpower? If that’s the landowner’s responsibility where is he going to get the money? And where is he going get the money for the seeds and fertilizers needed to grow crops? Oh, of course, he’ll get that from his revenue selling his crops. So here’s the big question: how much will it cost to produce a bushel of wheat using raw manpower vs using machinery? Have you figured out how many man hours it would take to plant and harvest 20,000 acres of wheat? And what would you pay those field workers per hour? And if that amount is much greater then it cost today to do with machinery then you see a future where hand grown and harvested produce will cost significantly more than it does today, right?

It always amazes me when folks appear to think that manpower is cheaper than fossil fuel power. I wish someone with a farming background would chime in and give their best estimate of the man-hours needed to produce the same crop they are creating today with machinery. They we could approximate how little he would have to pay the field workers or, conversely, how much more he would have to charge for his crop just to break even. I don’t mean to be rude but folks who have never worked crops 100% by hand have no freaking idea what they are talking about.

To be perfectly honest, I don't ever expect that agriculture will ever return to being completely hand cropped, not even part of the way. The economies of scale are so huge that unless there is a total wipe out of oil production facilities, agriculture will always be supplied with oil based fuel. Even without that fuel the farm equipment could be electric, run from hydro or whatever at the expense of almost everything else if needs be.

500 years down the line and with a much smaller population then maybe the survivors will revert to ancient forms of agriculture.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 15:13:41

hvacman wrote:
I wish someone with a farming background would chime in and give their best estimate of the man-hours needed to produce the same crop they are creating today with machinery.


RM - I know you only have the time to hang out on one energy forum, but over at Peakoilbarrel, Old Farmer Mac is a frequent contributor. He constantly provides an experienced and well-educated production farmer's perspective on oil, energy, capex, and labor as it relates growing stuff. Kind of an ag equivalent to RM:) Ask him - he'll give you the straight answer.

Here's something, that in retrospect is kind of silly, just making a point that hand-farming is not very efficient. :razz: The post must have been a refutation of the biofool thing. Note the horse and hoedown :lol:

(You wouldn't don't poke hole, insert seed, cover hole, etc. but draw a trench--for corn about 1 1/2 inches--the length of the row, and simply drop seeds into trench. Then pull-in/cover with the mounded dirt. Much faster)

pstarr » Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:16 pm wrote:so post peak you live in this permaculture hippie intentional community. All natural foods, hemp fibers, french intensive gardening, recycle poop and orchard trees.

You plant 1 acre of corn by hand. Each seed poked into the ground to a depth of 2 inches. You use a pencil to poke the hole and you take a corn seed out of your hemp bag. Every 4 inches on rows 3 feet apart you plant a seed.

Reach in to the bag,
grab corn seed,
poke a hole,
plant seed,
cover hole,
move to next hole.
Start again.
about 4 seconds per seed.

1 acres = 210 feet * 210 feet

So each row is 210 feet long which means that there are (210 feet*12 inches / 3 inches) 840 corn seed holes per row.

Now there are 70 corn rows * 840 corn seed holes == 58, 800 corn seed holes to poke with a pencil

58,800 corn seeds * 4 sec==65.4 hours to plant the seeds.

Then comes cultivation to kill weeds. You and nature have thinned to one plant on 8 inches but the plants are surrounded :shock: . You hoe each corn row with a spade or hand hoing tool. Dig around the plant carefully! 10 seconds per plant

29,400 corn plants * 10 sec==82 hours to cultivate the little plants

Do it again because those weeds are nasty :-x

Second hoing (and I know what you are thinking, and I do not mean a party in the corn patch :P )

29,400 corn plants * 10 sec==82 hours to cultivate the little plants again.

So the plants grow big and strong but you have to get rid of the corn borers. You mix up a batch of bt spray and walk the corn garden and spray each ear. That takes about 1 second per.

29,400 corn plants * 1 sec==8 hours to spray the big plants

spray em again

29,400 corn plants * 1 sec==8 hours to spray the big plants

Now the corn fields is all ready for picking and fermenting into alcohol. Let harvest. yippie!

Each plant has 4 ears and it takes about 2 seconds to rip an ear off.

29,400 corn plants * 4 *2 sec== 65 hours to pick the corn ears

So after 310 hours (almost 8 weeks) of gardening you are ready to make the joy juice. Get the prius out of the corn crib and let's ride! Wait. We haven't fermented the stuff yet. Damn :twisted:

1 acre of land yields about 7,110 pounds (3,225 kg) of corn, which can be processed into 328 gallons (1240.61 liters) of ethanol. But first we have to grind, cook and ferment the stuff. That should take the rest of the summer, most of the fall and part of the winter.

We now have 20 fillups after working for most of a year. We can drive all spring on that. But wait. The roads are gone because there are no road crews. And there are no convenience stores to drive to.

Now on the other hand, if we had just allowed the acre to grow up in grass, the horse would have taken care of its own needs. and we could put carriage behind it and go to the hoedown.

edit: oh damn I forgot about fertilizer. That would take 29,400 urinations or fish head insertions (at around 10 sec per plant). Another 82 hours. get a horse. okay?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 23:45:08

dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby sureshbansal342 » Sat 13 Dec 2014, 02:51:43

TRUE ORIGIN OF HYDROCARBONS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have sufficient evidences that majority of commercially interesting hydrocarbons have been expelled from organic rich source rock and are trapped in the reservoir rocks. We also have the evidences showing presence of biological molecules in all commercial oils.

We have observed the abundance of similar hydrocarbons on many other planetary bodies viz. comets and moons (eg. Titan) etc. which are thought to have been formed without any involvement of any biological material . The common association of hydrocarbons with the inert gas helium is also not explainable in current theory of biotic origin of petroleum. We have observed presence of some traces element like V, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn.. etc in hydrocarbons which also do not clearly explain the biotic origin of petroleum ( szatmari et al,2005). According to the author of the paper ,they have analyzed 68 Brazilian oil and nine foreign oils and determined 24 metal traces in the oils showed fine correlation of the oils with CI chondrite and mantle peridotites, and worse correlation with oceanic and continental crust, and none with seawater. No doubt, the biotic theory has some important evidences but on the other hand the followers of abiotic theory also have strong evidences which cannot be denied. So we require a new theory that can reconcile the strong evidences of both the current theories. Taking strong evidences of both the theories we can easily conclude it.
Majority of commercially interesting hydrocarbons accumulations have been formed from the organic rich sedimentary source rocks but essentially from those which has been formed with the involvement of abiotic hydrocarbons. And these abiotic hydrocarbons were once hugely present on the surface of the earth in past geological time. Sedimentary rocks that have been formed without any involvement of these abiotic hydrocarbons are not suitable to form commercial hydrocarbons deposits. So abiotic sources are the major contributor in the commercial accumulations of hydrocarbons. Hence a well balanced theory is today’s major requirement which will help future hydrocarbon exploration efficiently.

AUTHOR
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sureshbansal342@gmail.com
http://www.universetoday.com/12800/tita ... han-earth/
2) http://cdn.intechweb.org/pdfs/14082.pdf
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 13 Dec 2014, 08:15:46

sureshbansal342 wrote:TRUE ORIGIN OF HYDROCARBONS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have sufficient evidences that majority of commercially interesting hydrocarbons have been expelled from organic rich source rock and are trapped in the reservoir rocks. We also have the evidences showing presence of biological molecules in all commercial oils.

We have observed the abundance of similar hydrocarbons on many other planetary bodies viz. comets and moons (eg. Titan) etc. which are thought to have been formed without any involvement of any biological material . The common association of hydrocarbons with the inert gas helium is also not explainable in current theory of biotic origin of petroleum. We have observed presence of some traces element like V, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn.. etc in hydrocarbons which also do not clearly explain the biotic origin of petroleum ( szatmari et al,2005). According to the author of the paper ,they have analyzed 68 Brazilian oil and nine foreign oils and determined 24 metal traces in the oils showed fine correlation of the oils with CI chondrite and mantle peridotites, and worse correlation with oceanic and continental crust, and none with seawater. No doubt, the biotic theory has some important evidences but on the other hand the followers of abiotic theory also have strong evidences which cannot be denied. So we require a new theory that can reconcile the strong evidences of both the current theories. Taking strong evidences of both the theories we can easily conclude it.
Majority of commercially interesting hydrocarbons accumulations have been formed from the organic rich sedimentary source rocks but essentially from those which has been formed with the involvement of abiotic hydrocarbons. And these abiotic hydrocarbons were once hugely present on the surface of the earth in past geological time. Sedimentary rocks that have been formed without any involvement of these abiotic hydrocarbons are not suitable to form commercial hydrocarbons deposits. So abiotic sources are the major contributor in the commercial accumulations of hydrocarbons. Hence a well balanced theory is today’s major requirement which will help future hydrocarbon exploration efficiently.

AUTHOR
SURESH BANSAL
PB,INDIA
sureshbansal342@gmail.com
http://www.universetoday.com/12800/tita ... han-earth/
2) http://cdn.intechweb.org/pdfs/14082.pdf


Interesting. Thank you for the link. IMO and yes I know it is just my opinion, the helium contamination is very easy to explain. Helium arises as alpha particles when heavy radioactive elements like Uranium and Thorium decay in the Earths crust, Mantle and Core. Helium is a slippery gas because it does not combine with other chemicals to form complex molecules. This allows helium to migrate upward from whatever depth it is released and get trapped in the same kind of geological formations that trap slightly less slippery molecules like Methane. This caused Helium to accumulate with the Methane and Petroleum in the same type of geological traps. Even traps lacking organic molecules often have gas in them, nitrogen, CO2 and helium all accumulate in them even without any organic molecules being present.

The metal traces are interesting but as you quoted they resemble levels in continental crust. It should be no surprise that petroleum chemicals migrating through the crust from source rocks to geological traps inevitably pick up some of those crustal materials in suspension.

On the Gripping had there is evidence that a few sources of Methane have turned up with C-12/C-13 ratio's closer to or the same as abiotic gas. Abiotic methane is fairly common in our Solar System, their are hundreds of Trillion of cubic feet of the stuff in the atmosphere of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune and their moons. It is believed by paleoclimatologists and planetary scientists to have made up a good chunk of Earths primordial atmosphere. As Oxygen was generated by photosynthesis using life it broke down the primordial abiotic methane leaving CO2 and H2O behind. However the crust of the Earth is fairly dynamic, no doubt some of that primordial Methane was buried deep and migrated into traps, or was created by crustal environments later and migrated into traps. All told it does not add up to very much of the Methane we find on Earth today, but I am confident it was here and a few traces of it remain even now.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Sat 13 Dec 2014, 14:30:35

pstarr wrote:Here's something, that in retrospect is kind of silly, just making a point that hand-farming is not very efficient. :razz: The post must have been a refutation of the biofool thing. Note the horse and hoedown :lol:

(You wouldn't don't poke hole, insert seed, cover hole, etc. but draw a trench--for corn about 1 1/2 inches--the length of the row, and simply drop seeds into trench. Then pull-in/cover with the mounded dirt. Much faster)

pstarr » Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:16 pm wrote:so post peak you live in this permaculture hippie intentional community. All natural foods, hemp fibers, french intensive gardening, recycle poop and orchard trees.

You plant 1 acre of corn by hand. Each seed poked into the ground to a depth of 2 inches. You use a pencil to poke the hole and you take a corn seed out of your hemp bag. Every 4 inches on rows 3 feet apart you plant a seed.

Reach in to the bag,
grab corn seed,
poke a hole,
plant seed,
cover hole,
move to next hole.
Start again.
about 4 seconds per seed.

1 acres = 210 feet * 210 feet

So each row is 210 feet long which means that there are (210 feet*12 inches / 3 inches) 840 corn seed holes per row.

Now there are 70 corn rows * 840 corn seed holes == 58, 800 corn seed holes to poke with a pencil

58,800 corn seeds * 4 sec==65.4 hours to plant the seeds.

Then comes cultivation to kill weeds. You and nature have thinned to one plant on 8 inches but the plants are surrounded :shock: . You hoe each corn row with a spade or hand hoing tool. Dig around the plant carefully! 10 seconds per plant

29,400 corn plants * 10 sec==82 hours to cultivate the little plants

Do it again because those weeds are nasty :-x

Second hoing (and I know what you are thinking, and I do not mean a party in the corn patch :P )

29,400 corn plants * 10 sec==82 hours to cultivate the little plants again.

So the plants grow big and strong but you have to get rid of the corn borers. You mix up a batch of bt spray and walk the corn garden and spray each ear. That takes about 1 second per.

29,400 corn plants * 1 sec==8 hours to spray the big plants

spray em again

29,400 corn plants * 1 sec==8 hours to spray the big plants

Now the corn fields is all ready for picking and fermenting into alcohol. Let harvest. yippie!

Each plant has 4 ears and it takes about 2 seconds to rip an ear off.

29,400 corn plants * 4 *2 sec== 65 hours to pick the corn ears

So after 310 hours (almost 8 weeks) of gardening you are ready to make the joy juice. Get the prius out of the corn crib and let's ride! Wait. We haven't fermented the stuff yet. Damn :twisted:

1 acre of land yields about 7,110 pounds (3,225 kg) of corn, which can be processed into 328 gallons (1240.61 liters) of ethanol. But first we have to grind, cook and ferment the stuff. That should take the rest of the summer, most of the fall and part of the winter.

We now have 20 fillups after working for most of a year. We can drive all spring on that. But wait. The roads are gone because there are no road crews. And there are no convenience stores to drive to.

Now on the other hand, if we had just allowed the acre to grow up in grass, the horse would have taken care of its own needs. and we could put carriage behind it and go to the hoedown.

edit: oh damn I forgot about fertilizer. That would take 29,400 urinations or fish head insertions (at around 10 sec per plant). Another 82 hours. get a horse. okay?


Why would a Permaculturist ever plant and raise corn like that?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Sat 13 Dec 2014, 14:53:54

MonteQuest wrote:Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end.

So you would prefer a hard crash and total collapse over a depression? Because we all know BAU cannot continue.

MonteQuest wrote: The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel.

Which is going to happen anyway, so why not work at mitigating some of the effects?

MonteQuest wrote:Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B.

Of course not, plan B needs to come from outside the system.

MonteQuest wrote:There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Yes and the result is we no longer steal from our grandchildren by running up debts we can not pay (sort of like overshoot).

MonteQuest wrote:Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

And the other alternative, extinction is something I would try and avoid.

MonteQuest wrote:That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

Well, we could use, and support, about 50,000,000 urban farmers in the US alone using SPIN farming techniques. Not purist permaculture, but way, way, way, better than the current ag system. That's a start.

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 13 Dec 2014, 19:36:21

careinke wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end.

So you would prefer a hard crash and total collapse over a depression?


It has nothing to do with what I prefer; it's about what is possible. Try and sell massive unemployment as a cure for what ails us. See how far you would get.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 16:58:03

MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

According to Richard Heinberg in the movie Oil Smoke and Mirrors, capitalism will cease to exist after peak oil is reached because once oil production starts to decline, economic growth becomes impossible. And capitalism cannot function without growth. Without economic growth, capitalism will collapse. What will replace capitalism I don't know. But capitalism will cease to exist as a result of peak oil.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 17:11:45

DesuMaiden wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

According to Richard Heinberg in the movie Oil Smoke and Mirrors, capitalism will cease to exist after peak oil is reached because once oil production starts to decline, economic growth becomes impossible. And capitalism cannot function without growth. Without economic growth, capitalism will collapse. What will replace capitalism I don't know. But capitalism will cease to exist as a result of peak oil.

In it's current (or pre2008) form it can't survive, but it will evolve to exploit the changes to survive.
Don't write it off, the stakes are too high for the benefactors to let it go quietly.
I think that we're likely to find that the debt based monitory system will be replaced by a credit based system that can work in a zero growth scenario.

Instead of money being leant into existence, money being created when a government borrows from a bank to pay for services and repays with interest. The money instead is created by the government and spent into existence and taxed out of the system to preserve the value of the currency, such a system does not need growth to function.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 19:38:26

dolanbaker wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

According to Richard Heinberg in the movie Oil Smoke and Mirrors, capitalism will cease to exist after peak oil is reached because once oil production starts to decline, economic growth becomes impossible. And capitalism cannot function without growth. Without economic growth, capitalism will collapse. What will replace capitalism I don't know. But capitalism will cease to exist as a result of peak oil.

In it's current (or pre2008) form it can't survive, but it will evolve to exploit the changes to survive.
Don't write it off, the stakes are too high for the benefactors to let it go quietly.
I think that we're likely to find that the debt based monitory system will be replaced by a credit based system that can work in a zero growth scenario.

Instead of money being leant into existence, money being created when a government borrows from a bank to pay for services and repays with interest. The money instead is created by the government and spent into existence and taxed out of the system to preserve the value of the currency, such a system does not need growth to function.


But ultimately it will be spent on goods and services, and the more money there is the more of the latter needs to be created. An increase in goods and services requires more energy and material resources.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 21:30:33

careinke wrote:Why would a Permaculturist ever plant and raise corn like that?
Right. The permaculturalist would just call down a Diva who would flutter around on gossamer wings, sprinkle the ground with Stardust, and GMO-free corn kernals will spring unbiddened from the ground.

Otherwise we just wish a food forest into existence?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 22:55:12

dolanbaker wrote: I think that we're likely to find that the debt based monitory system will be replaced by a credit based system that can work in a zero growth scenario.


Debt based and credit based are the same thing. What are you talking about?

Instead of money being leant into existence, money being created when a government borrows from a bank to pay for services and repays with interest.


Where does the interest money come from? Taxes on the people? Is this what the Govt puts up as collateral for the loan?

The money instead is created by the government and spent into existence and taxed out of the system to preserve the value of the currency, such a system does not need growth to function.


Taxed out of the system? Care to elaborate?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 00:50:18

The government creates the money instead of the banks and they create a fixed amount based on population. If the money is "sloshing" one way then it is taxed out to stop excessive wealth accumulation.
With a finite amount of money(relative to population) the zero growth system is stable.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 12:06:12

MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 14:33:48

DesuMaiden wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

Why the empty reply?
My point is that it takes almost the same man hours to produce a car that consumes 4litres/ 100km as it does one that uses 8l/100km so by building more economic cars you don't lose any jobs.

I could say the same for many other aspects of modern life, but it doesn't sound doomerish enough.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 22:51:35

pstarr wrote:
careinke wrote:Why would a Permaculturist ever plant and raise corn like that?
Right. The permaculturalist would just call down a Diva who would flutter around on gossamer wings, sprinkle the ground with Stardust, and GMO-free corn kernals will spring unbiddened from the ground.

Otherwise we just wish a food forest into existence?


Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing, no pesticides, no soil erosion, etc, etc, etc. But even that would just be a stopgap/transition measure until my nut trees started producing. Then I don't need to plant at all, and get many more calories per square foot, a lot of oil, fire wood, building materials, and soil regeneration. Don't need grains at all.
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