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10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 09:51:50

Lore - I'll try to bounce over soon. I try to not hold such matters against most folks. Just about everyone gets their info from a blog and/or MSM. And those sources almost always have some or much of it wrong. Even a lot of geonerds don't keep matters in the correct context because they seldom go back to the source. Obviously what irritates me is when I sense someone, regardless of which side of the fence they're on, is intentionally using straw man argument. It's already difficult for many to appreciate the technicalities. Lies and misdirection aren’t going to help.

I was reading a report just last night that consistently used "conventional oil". But it's easy to understand why: that takes up a lot less space than "oil produced from a conventional reservoir using conventional drilling and completion methods". But the problem becomes serious when they start classifying Deep Water production as unconventional because of the water depths. Those reservoirs out there are just a conventional as the big onshore fields developed in the 50's. Obviously what isn't conventional is the water depth but that doesn't make it unconventional oil. And then add that some of the larger US onshore fields decades ago were from unconventional reservoirs.

Which goes full circle to the rant I always have trouble resisting: this is not a new age of "unconventional oil" nor a new age of shale production or a new age of horizontal drilling or a new age of frac'ng. It's a new age of sustained (so far) record high oil prices. If folks truly understood what driving the dynamics today they might be making more appropriate actions to prepare for the future. Like most geologists I learned a hard lesson early in my career: don’t over promise. Because even if you make a good well but it falls far short of your prediction management won’t be happy. And then consider how they’ll feel if it’s a dry hole.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby lasseter » Sat 01 Feb 2014, 07:17:44

ROCKMAN wrote: It's a new age of sustained (so far) record high oil prices. If folks truly understood what driving the dynamics today they might be making more appropriate actions to prepare for the future.


Quite right. Debate about oil reserves, types, etc is of little use now aside from an interesting academic exercise to me. We saw the consequences of $150 oil in the GFC and we now see clearly that recovery of our oil based economies is impossible at $100+ oil. At the end of the day, I like most people, just want to retire someday and grow old in relative comfort. To assure that I have to invest in a world that is not counting on cheap oil. I have to expect a world that will suffer from massive economic upheavel. And since 2007, I have not been disappointed in that expectation.

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 23:33:02

"If folks truly understood what driving the dynamics today they might be making more appropriate actions to prepare for the future."

The appropriate action around here is the 'Teepee Lifestyle'. It never occurs to these "rugged individualists" that they will simply be run off the land. There is no means of resistance to the Capital Machine. The bleeping Machine couldn't care less about the dynamics of peak oil or the so-called climate change.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 23:38:35

lasseter wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote: It's a new age of sustained (so far) record high oil prices. If folks truly understood what driving the dynamics today they might be making more appropriate actions to prepare for the future.


Quite right. Debate about oil reserves, types, etc is of little use now aside from an interesting academic exercise to me. We saw the consequences of $150 oil in the GFC and we now see clearly that recovery of our oil based economies is impossible at $100+ oil. At the end of the day, I like most people, just want to retire someday and grow old in relative comfort. To assure that I have to invest in a world that is not counting on cheap oil. I have to expect a world that will suffer from massive economic upheavel. And since 2007, I have not been disappointed in that expectation.

Solar Panels; Gold; farmland and kidney beans :lol


"Solar Panels; Gold; farmland and kidney beans:lol"

What are you laughing about buddy? Your "strategy" is bugging out of the system and turning over the land to the Capital Class eventually. Capital thanks you very much for your decision.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 17 Aug 2014, 09:05:09

Yall discount my comments about bicycles and scooters; this though, you're gonna have a hard time with.

http://www.indianagazette.com/news/reg- ... ,20419259/

At 84 mpg; you're talking a price point of over $15 (US 2014)/gallon before price of fuel becomes intrinsically more costly for commuting than it currently is. The most important feature though, is that not only is the commuter mileage high, but that the vehicle is cheap, enclosed, and has A/C; which are the basic requirements for getting a middle aged suit wearer from the suburbs into downtown.

Game, set, match, for the fast doomers ascribing to "The End of Suburbia". Adaptation is possible after all.

Doesn't change the slow doom though, and to an extent, helps guarantee the slow doom.. There might be oil that can't be economically produced at $120(US2014)/bbl; but $600(US2014)/bbl... You could probably produce at the North Pole in winter at that price. So don't read this as a corny post; this is doom on steroids; Hansenites should look at that vehicle and gasp in horror.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 17 Aug 2014, 09:13:01

StarvingLion wrote:The appropriate action around here is the 'Teepee Lifestyle'. It never occurs to these "rugged individualists" that they will simply be run off the land. There is no means of resistance to the Capital Machine. The bleeping Machine couldn't care less about the dynamics of peak oil or the so-called climate change.


There is only one way to stay on their land; they must participate in the Capital Machine. Now, fortunately enough, that machine doesn't demand a HUGE commitment, but it does require you to show up and toss the ball around. Taxes on my home for instance... a couple grand a year, not an unreasonable demand; we are social creatures, even the asocial amongst us. The tribe, as it were, wants me to show up, move the ball a bit to pay it tribute, and then is content to let me go my way. The tribe will get annoyed though, if I wish to occupy space, but not participate; and if it becomes annoyed enough, will remove me by force.

Really.. its always been this way with humans. I see no reason the rugged individualist can't sell some watermelons on the road side, or raise a couple cows, or push a broom at a warehouse for a few hours. Hardly a great insult to freedom and dignity.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 18 Aug 2014, 00:57:54

AgentR11 wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:The appropriate action around here is the 'Teepee Lifestyle'. It never occurs to these "rugged individualists" that they will simply be run off the land. There is no means of resistance to the Capital Machine. The bleeping Machine couldn't care less about the dynamics of peak oil or the so-called climate change.


There is only one way to stay on their land; they must participate in the Capital Machine. Now, fortunately enough, that machine doesn't demand a HUGE commitment, but it does require you to show up and toss the ball around. Taxes on my home for instance... a couple grand a year, not an unreasonable demand; we are social creatures, even the asocial amongst us. The tribe, as it were, wants me to show up, move the ball a bit to pay it tribute, and then is content to let me go my way. The tribe will get annoyed though, if I wish to occupy space, but not participate; and if it becomes annoyed enough, will remove me by force.

Really.. its always been this way with humans. I see no reason the rugged individualist can't sell some watermelons on the road side, or raise a couple cows, or push a broom at a warehouse for a few hours. Hardly a great insult to freedom and dignity.


And what makes you think you have the right to "push a broom at a warehouse for a few hours". You're not making that decision, now are you?

You're like Merlin the Magician...except your apathy is so astounding that the energy to wave the wand does not exist.

There is no knowledge of a financial system in your world, just a desire to pretend its not even there stripping resources away from YOU!
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 18 Aug 2014, 08:52:51

StarvingLion wrote:And what makes you think you have the right to "push a broom at a warehouse for a few hours". You're not making that decision, now are you?


No such right has ever existed. The rest of your rant is based upon the assumption that I believe such a right exists, and is therefore invalid and irrelevant.

If you do NOT participate in the capital machine, your land WILL be taken away, by force. Your preps, regardless of magnitude, will be stripped from you or destroyed, by force. You are responsible for finding a way to participate. No one owes you that. No one is responsible for that, other than you. If you fail at that, you have no right to own land, eat, walk, drink, sleep, or breathe.

Stark enough for you?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 18 Aug 2014, 10:00:40

You have to choose a tribe, or the tribe chooses you.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 18 Aug 2014, 16:34:02

pstarr wrote:You have to choose a tribe, or the tribe chooses you.


I am content with the tribe that raised me. I suspect others may not be, which is fine, as far as it goes. However, choose and chosen, participation is not optional. But be not afraid, tribal participation is based upon the capabilities of an 85 IQ gimp; think of it as paying one's respects to the society that chooses to allow you to keep breathing.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 19 Aug 2014, 00:03:31

pstarr wrote:You have to choose a tribe, or the tribe chooses you.
So those whacky Iraqis have the right idea?
"I could go on, but let’s veer off in another direction instead."

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 22:48:45

Peak oil also means peak food production. That's because our agriculture system is entirely reliant on oil. We simply can't produce any food without oil. Or at least we wouldn't be able to produce as much food as we do without oil. The worst thing about peak oil is that we will max out on our food production, and that is certainly not a good thing, especially considering that the population of the world is still growing.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 23:00:02

Keith_McClary wrote:
pstarr wrote:You have to choose a tribe, or the tribe chooses you.
So those whacky Iraqis have the right idea?
Not the right idea, but human nature nonetheless.

Regarding Iraq; Saddam was just fine when he was of our tribe. He'd be fine again today, just as Assad is starting to look awfully sane. Where's Khadafy when you need him? :x Oh right, we had him offed also.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 22:07:00

Queaks wrote:The whole price of gas in America is currently driven by speculation not supply. Our supply is nearly what it was last year, yet gas prices are higher. Speculators drive the prices in the short run more than any peak oil reality.


But isn't it the reality of peak oil that drives the speculation in the first place??
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Wed 29 Oct 2014, 22:22:26

Pops wrote:Here are 10 facts about Peak Oil:

Export Land Model
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.

There is no way every nation in the world becomes an oil importer because without any oil exporter there will nobody exporting oil to other nations.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby sparky » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 00:50:32

.
The energy/food system doesn't look too good
before the industrial revolution , a farmer would keep 20% of his harvest as seed ,it took ten farmers to feed an artisan
it took ten villages to feed a very small town

Now it's 6% kept for seed, and less than 5% people feed 95% of the population
it is done with oil mostly and some genetics both old fashion and cutting edge
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 09 Dec 2014, 09:31:38

sparky wrote:.
The energy/food system doesn't look too good
before the industrial revolution , a farmer would keep 20% of his harvest as seed ,it took ten farmers to feed an artisan
it took ten villages to feed a very small town

Now it's 6% kept for seed, and less than 5% people feed 95% of the population
it is done with oil mostly and some genetics both old fashion and cutting edge

When we run out of oil, we will have to have most people work as farmers again.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 09 Dec 2014, 10:40:18

DesuMaiden wrote:
Pops wrote:Here are 10 facts about Peak Oil:

Export Land Model
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.

There is no way every nation in the world becomes an oil importer because without any oil exporter there will nobody exporting oil to other nations.
Desu, you have misread the intent and value of the ELM. It does not simply restate the obvious.

It is a mathematical model that attempts to describe a hypothetical oil-importing nation's increasing poverty as a function of oil-exporting nation's wealth and resulting increased consumption of said oil. IOW as World oil production declines and oil prices rise:
--USA pays more money for same oil,
--SA makes more money for same oil,
--the USA can afford less less oil (less wealth),
--Ever-wealthier SA takes ever-more of the world's income.
--SA buys up the fast cars and big trucks the USA can no longer afford. Thus consuming more oil. Rinse and repeat.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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― Maya Angelou
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 09 Dec 2014, 10:47:27

DesuMaiden wrote:When we run out of oil, we will have to have most people work as farmers again.

That assumes people have the tools and land to farm without oil. It also implies the existence of simple transport/manufacturing devices (that operate without oil) that can make and repair those simple tools. What does that look like?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 09 Dec 2014, 13:37:28

pstarr wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:When we run out of oil, we will have to have most people work as farmers again.

That assumes people have the tools and land to farm without oil. It also implies the existence of simple transport/manufacturing devices (that operate without oil) that can make and repair those simple tools. What does that look like?

The industrial revolution was built on water powered mills and the like, followed by coal fired power.
The industrial world won't stop because of the lack of oil. Just certain aspects of modern living will be severely curtailed by it. The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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