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1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 Mar 2016, 22:19:52

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... study-says

Environmental risks killing 12.6 million people

Nearly one in four deaths are linked to unhealthy environments and are avoidable, a new World Health Organisation study – the first major assessment of environmental risk since 2006 – has shown.

It suggests environmental risks now contribute to more than 100 of the world’s most dangerous diseases, injuries, and kills 12.6 million people a year – nearly one in four or 23% of all deaths.


In case anyone is still burdened by out-of-date notions, environmental concerns are not the exclusive purview of the well off. It is the global poor who suffer and die most from pollution and other environmental insults.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 02:42:57

Surely this is a sign not just of how our disregard for the environment rebounds against us but of the very nature of overshoot in which the processes and systems we use to be able to feed, house, clothes, entertain, treat medically etc our humongous population are creating an unhealthy world in which to live in. Dohboi, is right that rich countries ship much of their waste and poison to poor regions and the people there are beset by these toxins. Cooking fires in Asia are also contributing to air pollution along of course with the huge amounts of emissions from coal, gas and oil. The plight of our species and its unsustainable path should be distressing to all humans.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 04:38:08

One way of looking at it--perhaps Ibon's, but I daren't speak for him--is that the negative consequences of our behaviors haven't been killing us fast enough.

In most small scale societies, if they managed one way or another to totally disrupt their local ecosystem, they would rather quickly have to either leave the area or just die out.

But we managed to disrupt things on a global scale, rather than a local one. And it takes longer for those systems to reach such a state of dysequilibrium to make things unlivable for us, the cause of that dysequilibrium.

In the next few years, or at most very few decades, those consequences will be very much catching up with us.

Those who caused the least harm will suffer the most soonest. But we're all in the line of fire.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 04:42:30

I think what is also happening is that due to such a large world population, the percentage of people being affected is still not so alarming. Even though large numbers are being affected. Also, we have set up the table so to speak for very very large numbers to die-off. Just because it is not yet happening does not mean it will not soon.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 09:53:20

Of course, even non-doomer demographers (sounds like the name of a band :lol: ) point out the the global crude death rate is inevitably going to increase. Right now it's at about 8/1000/year. To maintain anything below 10/1000/yr (=1/100/year) for any extended period of time would mean that people are averaging over 100 year lifespans, right? Not likely to happen. So just demographically, the death rate has got to rise in the coming years and decades (which will be the first extended global increase in the death rate since medieval times, iirc).

The question is how far and how fast that rise will be...
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 11:53:25

dohboi wrote:Of course, even non-doomer demographers (sounds like the name of a band :lol: ) point out the the global crude death rate is inevitably going to increase. Right now it's at about 8/1000/year. To maintain anything below 10/1000/yr (=1/100/year) for any extended period of time would mean that people are averaging over 100 year lifespans, right? Not likely to happen. So just demographically, the death rate has got to rise in the coming years and decades (which will be the first extended global increase in the death rate since medieval times, iirc).

The question is how far and how fast that rise will be...


This is one of those tricky things because global birth rates are a major impact on the average age of the world population. Right now in some countries like for example Egypt the average age is 24.8 while in France the average age is 40.1 despite the large families the immigrants are having. You can not have an increasing population forever, but so long as the births are outnumbering the deaths the average age stays far below 50. To get your 10/1000= life to 100 relationship some people would have to live to be 200 8O 8O 8O 8O
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 12:12:32

"You can not have an increasing population forever"

Yeah, that's the main point. So one way or the other, average global death rates do have to increase just from the demographics.

I keep checking for this inevitable shift, but so far we are still at about 8 after dropping down from 9 in 2000. I got a bit excited in 2009 when there was an uptick, but it turned out to be just that, rather than the beginning of the new trend.

(I know, I know...it seems pretty ghoulish to obsess over global death rate stats all the time--but, like GW, we know what the long term trend is roughly going to be, but one looks for crucial turning points; and of course the ultimate consequences are quite important.) http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=26

...note also that population growth rate is nearly down to 1%, the lowest in decades...but of course still too high.
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 15:16:09

For America the Baby Boomer Buldge is moving into that 55+ age bracket where natural causes start picking us off one by one.

Reminds me of that old joke, "I want to pass away peacefully in my sleep like Grandpa, not screaming in terror like the passengers in his back seat...."

:-D :P 8O
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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 16:08:30

The fact that you are alive will inevitably cause your death from natural causes, unless you have an accident, get murdered, or otherwise depart this mortal life before those natural causes catch up to you.

The average human lifespan today is 71 years, 68.5 for males and 73.5 for females. It was 29 years during the bronze age/iron age and a mere 24 years when we lived a hunter/gatherer existence in caves during the last glacial age.

If we are right about peak oil, the slowly increasing average age will itself peak, and then fall.

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Re: 1/4 of all deaths globally from environment

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 17:34:42

KaiserJeep wrote:The fact that you are alive will inevitably cause your death from natural causes, unless you have an accident, get murdered, or otherwise depart this mortal life before those natural causes catch up to you.

The average human lifespan today is 71 years, 68.5 for males and 73.5 for females. It was 29 years during the bronze age/iron age and a mere 24 years when we lived a hunter/gatherer existence in caves during the last glacial age.

If we are right about peak oil, the slowly increasing average age will itself peak, and then fall.

Peak Humanity?


The huge infant/toddler mortality rate during the Bromze age really skews those stats Kaiser. Almost half of live births died before age 1, and another quarter died by age 5. If you made it yo 5 you were likely to reach reproductive age and have children. Baring accidents if you managed to have children of your own you were likely to meet your grandchildren because they would be born around your 30 birthday. Before 1800 the average marriage age was mid teens, not late 20's as it is today. Even in the mid to late 1800's it was considered normal for girls to marry at 16 and boys at 18, something most people living today would find inconceivable.
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