how long til Wall Street collapses?

Ayoob · Expert Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 1061

I think that'll be the first horse of the financial apocalypse. Some smart guy out there is going to figure out that Peak Oil means the end of the stock market. Well, it might not go all the way down to zero, but I think a major portion of the insurance industry is going to fail. Banks may fail as well, but they might see an enormous taxpayer looting to try to stem the tide of bank failures.

Our currency could face extreme devaluation, meaning Argentina-style 600% inflation. That's pretty much the end of that for city people.

I'm city people.

Right now, I'm getting my family ready to move to the countryside in Oregon where we should be able to scrape together a living. Goats, corn, potatoes, fruit trees, carrots, tomatoes, onions, etc. I don't think it's that hard to raise crops like that and I can't imagine that it's all that difficult to preserve that suff for winter either.

My question to you all is:

How long til Wall Street collapses, and how soon thereafter does the chaos begin? Could it be a years-long slow grind like the Japanese economy, or a sudden crash like any number of other places have seen? Got any ideas how much time we have left to prepare?

KiddieKorral · Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 12:54 pm Post subject:

It all depends on whether or not Asian central banks keep propping our economy up. If they decide they've had enough, it would be a sudden crash. If not, it would take a while.
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JayHMorrison · Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 3:18 pm Post subject:

The stock market may collapse, but that doesnt mean that Wall Street will go away any time soon. Even 3rd world countries still have stock markets. There has been some form of stock market for hundreds of years going back to the tulip bubble.

Pops · Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 3:31 pm Post subject:

The Tulip Bubble LOL! I never heard it called that before.

Answer is…

Bounce to the bottom like a ball on a staircase!

Says me, but of course I’m no expert.
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truecougarblue · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 21, 2005 Posts: 471

I'd say the next black swan comes around the corner in August when the patches put in place last year come due.
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Cougar

"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young

TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 328

September to October time frame is a good bet. When people need to buy heating oil at $4/gallon or Nat Gas at $14/mcf but don't have any money because $4 gas has taken it all, we'll see some problems. I'm betting these people will want to buy on credit and the finance people will have to decide if they are a good risk or not.

It often seems that October is the harbinger of doom. Maybe it is the realization that summer is over and we are headed into winter that does it.

TF

mmasters

I think the odds are higher for getting buried by a Volcano in Oregon than Wall Street collapsing.
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TheDude

I've been thinking The Coming Heating Oil Crisis should have its own thread. People are going to freeze en maase if someone doesn't bail them out.

I keep waiting for investor confidence to fall straight through the floorboards, too. That'll take prolonged shortages or waves of blackouts perhaps, people want to believe this is a temporary setback for BAU.

Ayoob - you in OR already? We have many varieties of countryside - not to mention high real estate prices and onerous property taxes. I'm attracted to Kunstler/Orlov's advice of moving to a real small town (ca. 3k) but as it is I own my house outright, and might stay put for now until the dust settles.
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Could you slide your shorts down please?

burtonridr · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 763

TheDude

Denny

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 799

That's not true. Not hundred years ago. When I was a kid there where still many people heating with coal. Or these ugly oil ovens.
and room temperatures were down. If you heat you house at 1 °C less, you're saving a lot of energy.

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1532

In terms of inflation, Wall Street has already lost a lot, and it continues to jitter along sideways now. I expect a long drawn out bumpy slide down, propped at every bump by the Fed team, as they have been doing. I've already read comments that your money is better invested in food than in a 401K. As more people figure out they need their investment money for food, fuel and heat, the only ones left with money in stocks will be the big players. They seem to have their own way of seeing value in the market. Yes, I think it will continue to exist, but in the long term will probably return to the pariah status it had in the years after 1929, at least for the small investor.

edit: The whole economic picture I see unfolding looks a lot like what my elders described to me about the "dirty thirties". Poor people everywhere, trying to hold on to whatever scraps of their former life they can. Men in out of style suits, wearing Italian shoes with cardboard in the sole to cover the holes, and looking for a nickel any way they can get it. Ex-brokers buying a cup of coffee in a cheap restaurant, then adding all the sugar they can get in the cup for cheap calories. Then they go to the rest room to shave with a worn out razor, trim their hair, and wash up before going somewhere to beg, borrow or steal sustenance for the day.
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Kingcoal

There is no reason for the NYSE to "collapse," however stock prices will probably plunge. Right now, it looks like the Airline industry is first in line.
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