How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Hmm, I think you've got a point. Perhaps engineers, or maybe geeks in particular, may have some sort of intuitive grasp of all the different numbers and units involved. You know, mbpd (million barrels per day) instead of mbps (megabits per second), tcf (trillion cubic feet) instead of tcp (transmission control protocol), this sort of thing.
I think it's because the average engineer is well-versed in thermodynamics. It's thermodynamics that tells you that we won't find a replacement for oil.
I know when I was a kid I was sure technology would provide a way out. But now that I'm an engineer, I no longer think so. Because of the thermodynamics. And because I know how long it takes for new technology to go from theory to practice.
I was reading the Ultimate Subaru Message Board shopping for a new car (I got a Legacy wagon). Someone had posted a link there to the globalpublicmedia page and I listened. Then I googled "Peak Oil" and read and read and read for months.
I seem to get a good deal of email from folks in the engineering profession. I think they understand the seriousness of the situation once they look at the numbers and the dynamics ...
Hmm, I think you've got a point. Perhaps engineers, or maybe geeks in particular, may have some sort of intuitive grasp of all the different numbers and units involved. You know, mbpd (million barrels per day) instead of mbps (megabits per second), tcf (trillion cubic feet) instead of tcp (transmission control protocol), this sort of thing.
Exactly.
On the other hand, what I've found is that the person you might expect to see at antiwar protest will react the most vehemently to my site.
Why? Well somewhere in their minds they realize that it's not as simple as taking out Bush or corralling the large corporations. So if they accept this as true it means that every "solution" they have is basically useless. Redistribution of wealth will no more solve this then a continuing concentration of wealth.
The folks with a science background look at the data and it speaks for itself.
I've also received lots of positive feedback from other attorneys. At first I thought they were just reacting positively because we are from the same "brotherhood."
But then I realized it probably has more to do with the fact an attorney is trained (like a scientist) to realistically look at facts and use logic rather then rely on wishful thinking and miracles. (Which can happen, but you shouldn't rely on one to save civilization)
Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 43 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 3:48 pm Post subject:
I first heard of it about 6 weeks ago when I went to a 1-day workshop on sustainable land use for farmers and horticulturalists. One of the participants kept standing up and asking questions like "But when the price of oil reaches $80 a barrel HOW will you get your produce to market?" He was very insistent with his questions and provided a quick summary of peak oil theory. People at the workshop didn't know how to take him and the atmosphere was a little bit awkward. He left at lunchtime.
But he'd made his point, and then I looked up oil crisis on google > peak oil etc.
Now I am a convert too.
Since then I have bumped into him at the shops (we live in a small community) and the next time I see him I'll thank him, and discuss next steps to get more people aware.
I think at some deep level I have always known this too. It makes perfect sense. My background is a mix of science (physics) and social science (sociology and education).
Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 43 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 4:53 pm Post subject:
I should add, to my posting above, thank you very much also to all you people who have made the effort to make this information available on the internet.
This scenario would be even worse I think if there was no internet. There are a lot of people who don't have the internet too... I think there is some kind of moral imperative to tell as many people as possible... can you imagine seeing people suffering who are saying "why didn't you tell me earlier?"
In I htink March or April, Rense.com (i know, i know) gave a link to Matt Savinar's website. While talkin g about peak oil on a computer forum, some guy gave me the link to this website.
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 32 Location: singapore
Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:35 am Post subject:
I was browsing michaelmoore.com 3 months ago when I followed a series of links & somehow arrived at lifeafterthecrash. And the related peak oil links later.
Didn't think oil depletion was much of a problem initially but matter of simply switching to alternative & renewable resources...and we have a comfortable 40 more years to make the adjutments
Just finished reading Heinbgerg's "The Party's Over". Didn't think anybody this side of the globe is aware of peak oil...nice to see a forumer from S'pore here too.
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 32 Location: singapore
Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:38 am Post subject:
wzx wrote:
I was browsing michaelmoore.com 3 months ago when I followed a series of links & somehow arrived at lifeafterthecrash. And the related peak oil links later.
Initially didn't think oil depletion was much of a problem but matter of simply switching to alternative & renewable resources...and we have a comfortable 40 more years to make the adjutments
Just finished reading Heinbgerg's "The Party's Over". Didn't think anybody this side of the globe is aware of peak oil...nice to see a forumer from S'pore here too.
Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:17 am Post subject: Re: How did you find out about peak oil?
Leanan wrote:
I guess I've always believed in peak oil. I was a child during the '70s oil crisis, and I remember hearing that we only had enough oil to last another 30 or 40 years. That seemed like forever back then. All of a sudden, time's running out.
I was a wild eyed longhaired hippie in the 1960's who was certain we were doomed before the year 2000. I had long fights with my father over all the sustainability issues. He did not really convince me of the error of my ways, but a nice job came along and I sold out my ideals for a pocket full of miracles.
Irony? Several months ago my father - now approaching 90 - asked me if I had ever heard of a guy named Colin Campbell.
Didn't think anybody this side of the globe is aware of peak oil...nice to see a forumer from S'pore here too.
Quite a lot do, I know people who do who are form my locatons... Even the Phillipine energy cheif or something like that commented on this a few times.
I first heard of it about 6 weeks ago when I went to a 1-day workshop on sustainable land use for farmers and horticulturalists. One of the participants kept standing up and asking questions like "But when the price of oil reaches $80 a barrel HOW will you get your produce to market?" He was very insistent with his questions and provided a quick summary of peak oil theory. People at the workshop didn't know how to take him and the atmosphere was a little bit awkward. He left at lunchtime.
But he'd made his point, and then I looked up oil crisis on google > peak oil etc.
Now I am a convert too.
Since then I have bumped into him at the shops (we live in a small community) and the next time I see him I'll thank him, and discuss next steps to get more people aware.
I think at some deep level I have always known this too. It makes perfect sense. My background is a mix of science (physics) and social science (sociology and education).
Gosh I know exactly how that guy felt!
Just last night, I called into a popular liberal radio show and mentioned Peak Oil. Did not mention I wrote a book or have a site.
The host said that luckily Kerry has an energy independence platform. I said very politely and in a calm, converastional tone that there are really no viable alternatives to oil, and that although I am certainly voting for Kerry, he is not being upfront with the people. Mentioned why he knows about peak oil due to the committees he has served on in Congress.
The host went off!!!! Called me a liar, said he knew about this problem long before I was born, how dare I criticize Kerry, how dare I say there are no alternatives, etc . . . .
I couldn't believe it as until that moment I was a huge fan of the show. I wouldn't have cared if the host had disagreed but the degree to which he went ballistic was amazing. Have never heard him raise his voice at a caller like that.
Again, it may not come across in this forum, but my tone when discussing these things in public is very calm. Not the wild yelling Peak Oil Paul Revere-town crier image some might have.
Joined: Jul 09, 2004 Posts: 71 Location: Sunny San Diego
Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:16 pm Post subject:
I sure enjoy these boards! Thanks one and all!
I learned about Peak Oil 3/4 months ago in an article in The Mountain Astrologer. It was an article about what America (specifically) can expect in the next 10 years or so. I believe it predicted total economic collapse around 2012. I didn't necessarily believe the article. However.....at the end of the article...there it was!!! (Simplified version)
"Even if you don't believe in predictive astrology, just google "Peak Oil"
I learned about Peak Oil 3/4 months ago in an article in The Mountain Astrologer. It was an article about what America (specifically) can expect in the next 10 years or so. I believe it predicted total economic collapse around 2012. I didn't necessarily believe the article. However.....at the end of the article...there it was!!! (Simplified version)
"Even if you don't believe in predictive astrology, just google "Peak Oil"
So I googled Peak Oil and it ROCKED MY WORLD!
Trip
The author of that article sent me that issue of the magazine. Real interesting stuff.
I was browsing the Airsoft Canada offtopic forum and someone posted several links about peak oil including Matt's site, this site, and Die Off. Since I first read Matt's site I have been trying to gather as much information as possible.
Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 43 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 3:09 am Post subject:
lowem wrote:
Quote:
MattSavinar wrote:
Quote:
I seem to get a good deal of email from folks in the engineering profession. I think they understand the seriousness of the situation once they look at the numbers and the dynamics ...
Hmm, I think you've got a point. Perhaps engineers, or maybe geeks in particular, may have some sort of intuitive grasp of all the different numbers and units involved. You know, mbpd (million barrels per day) instead of mbps (megabits per second), tcf (trillion cubic feet) instead of tcp (transmission control protocol), this sort of thing.
This discussion made me think of the MBTI personality types - I wonder if there is a predominance of certain "types". If there is, that would help to identify a target audience of peole who are likely to listen with an open mind and then hopefully take action.
(For info on MBTI see http://www.personalitypathways.com/type_inventory.html)
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