Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:49 am Post subject: Why aren't petrol prices much higher?
Well, petrol (gas to you yanks) is about 85 pence a litre now and diesel is around 92 pence a litre. This is with $60 oil. When oil was $30 a barrel early last year, petrol prices were around 77 pence a litre i recall. So thats only an 8 pence increase with a doubling of oil prices.
So, if oil was suddenly $240 a barrel, petrol would be about 105 pence per litre. That is nothing when you think about it - given that many experts believe that oil peaking is simply a transportation fuels crisis.
So - if petrol is about $2.20 in the US with $60 oil, it will likely be no more than $3 with $200 a barrel oil. For $5 petrol ,you'd likely need $500 a barrel oil or more.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 591 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:58 am Post subject:
i don't think your math adds up. what we have right now in the US is:
$60/barrel = $1.43/gallon crude [assume that 1 gallon crude makes 1 gallon of refined product]
$2.20 gasoline = $1.43 (for the oil input) + $.77 for tax, refining, delivery, and profit.
Where I live, the tax is about $.43.
If crude doubles to $120/bbl, then the oil input is $2.86 and I would expect the retail price of a gallon of gasoline to be $2.86 + $.77 = $3.63.
The $200/barrel scenario should put gasoline around $5.50/gal in the US.
i don't think your math adds up. what we have right now in the US is:
$60/barrel = $1.43/gallon crude [assume that 1 gallon crude makes 1 gallon of refined product]
$2.20 gasoline = $1.43 (for the oil input) + $.77 for tax, refining, delivery, and profit.
Where I live, the tax is about $.43.
If crude doubles to $120/bbl, then the oil input is $2.86 and I would expect the retail price of a gallon of gasoline to be $2.86 + $.77 = $3.63.
The $200/barrel scenario should put gasoline around $5.50/gal in the US.
Well, from what I've heard on the news, it's about $1.20 AUD cents per Litre here in Sydney (I don't drive, so I don't go to petrol stations regularly.
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:25 am Post subject: Re: Why aren't petrol prices much higher?
linlithgowoil wrote:
Well, petrol (gas to you yanks) is about 85 pence a litre now and diesel is around 92 pence a litre. This is with $60 oil. When oil was $30 a barrel early last year, petrol prices were around 77 pence a litre i recall. So thats only an 8 pence increase with a doubling of oil prices.
So, if oil was suddenly $240 a barrel, petrol would be about 105 pence per litre. That is nothing when you think about it - given that many experts believe that oil peaking is simply a transportation fuels crisis.
So - if petrol is about $2.20 in the US with $60 oil, it will likely be no more than $3 with $200 a barrel oil. For $5 petrol ,you'd likely need $500 a barrel oil or more.
It takes time for the higher prices to filter through the forecourts. The services stations are taking a very low cut to keep people happy at the moment and Gordon Brown has not raised fuel tax duty in line with inflation for some time - despite this 'war on the motorist' bollocks.
'Meanwhile figures from the Office of National Statistics confirm that despite high oil prices, the cost of motoring, including buying and running a car, has actually gone down since Labour came to power'
'This runs counter to Labour's original plan to encourage public transport and get people out of their cars.'
The AA Trust agreed that overall motoring costs had fallen in real terms - but said the government should still spend more of its motoring taxes on transport.'
Which has upset environmentalists:
'Road lobbyists don't reveal that the £26 billion tax taken from motorists is far less than the estimated £44- 51 billion which road transport costs the environment, economy and society1.'
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:54 am Post subject:
Quote:
i don't think your math adds up. what we have right now in the US is:
$60/barrel = $1.43/gallon crude [assume that 1 gallon crude makes 1 gallon of refined product]
$2.20 gasoline = $1.43 (for the oil input) + $.77 for tax, refining, delivery, and profit.
Where I live, the tax is about $.43.
If crude doubles to $120/bbl, then the oil input is $2.86 and I would expect the retail price of a gallon of gasoline to be $2.86 + $.77 = $3.63.
The $200/barrel scenario should put gasoline around $5.50/gal in the US.
Thing is though, although your maths do seem sound, it doesnt seem to happen in reality. The average price for US gasoline hasn't risen all that much over the last year compared to the crude oil price, so maybe there isnt a directly comparable relationship?
Quote:
It takes time for the higher prices to filter through the forecourts. The services stations are taking a very low cut to keep people happy at the moment and Gordon Brown has not raised fuel tax duty in line with inflation for some time - despite this 'war on the motorist' bollocks.
Yep - i know it takes time but i thought that it was generally only 6-8 weeks before the full price increase of crude oil appeared at the pumps. Maybe petrol will go over 90 pence a litre in 6 weeks time as $60 oil filters through.
I still dont think there is a direct penny for penny relationship between crude oil and gasoline.
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:54 am Post subject: Re: Why aren't petrol prices much higher?
linlithgowoil wrote:
Well, petrol (gas to you yanks) is about 85 pence a litre now and diesel is around 92 pence a litre. This is with $60 oil. When oil was $30 a barrel early last year, petrol prices were around 77 pence a litre i recall. So thats only an 8 pence increase with a doubling of oil prices.
So, if oil was suddenly $240 a barrel, petrol would be about 105 pence per litre. That is nothing when you think about it - given that many experts believe that oil peaking is simply a transportation fuels crisis.
So - if petrol is about $2.20 in the US with $60 oil, it will likely be no more than $3 with $200 a barrel oil. For $5 petrol ,you'd likely need $500 a barrel oil or more.
I think they're something like $1.20/litre here in Sydney, Australia (local currency).
Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 7 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:43 am Post subject:
I was wondering.... Here in The Netherlands we pay (Euro converted to US$): USD 6.58 per gallon. Most of this money goes directly to the government. Still...business as usual and nobody even mentions the high gas prices. Would it be possible that US citizens eventually accept these kind of prices too and somehow continue their lifes?
Would it be possible that US citizens eventually accept these kind of prices too and somehow continue their lifes?
I think that European countries can handle better higher oil prices than the US for two reasons :
- European population density is higher and distances are shorter.
- High taxes on gas have been set up since the first oil shock and, as a consequence, urbanism and transportation systems have been developped around high oil price.
$120 barrel would mean 27p rise to 117p per litre aprox.
The difference between $50 and $60 is 4.5p aprox
The average family car would cost another £2.70 to fill up, or 0.67p a mile. 5 x 40 mile commute would cost an extra £1.34 per week with $10 difference or £13.40 with $100 difference.
These are my researched calculations.
It appears many governments have been dropping duty in order to calm prices at the pump, another reason demand is not falling away very quickly. For those with no tax buffer or Airlines it's very bad news.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 12:05 pm Post subject:
Your calculations are spot on Wildwell , every increase in oil price of $50 increases petrol by roughly 22 pence. _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
LOL As you know I'm not as negative as most here. The airlines are going to be around for a bit yet; some of them are excellently positioned. When they are doing the things only they can do in any sensible manner (say London - India, Cuba, US) they can be a very successful business, right up until quite silly prices, albeit at a lower scale operation. But what's going on now, with cheap flights for £20 to Europe and some of the silly internal flights we have is just not sustainable in the medium to long term - it's just not ecologically sound for a start, let in line on the oil demand side.
Even the airlines admit this is not the sort of business they should be in, especially judging by the comments of the outgoing BA boss.
The likes of Michael O'Leary is a very hard nose businessman who has really stripped the airline business right back to almost running a bus service in the air.
O'leary says '"I am not a cloud bunny, I am not an aerosexual. I don't like aeroplanes'. While he can make money he'll be in the business. As soon as there is no money to be made, he'll Fark off overnight.
Joined: Jun 25, 2005 Posts: 245 Location: British Columbia, Canada
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:36 pm Post subject:
80.9 Canadian a litre was what I paid today. $3.06(Can) a US gallon, or $2.52 US at today's exchange rate. Price varies as much as 15-20 cents a litre from one place to the next, a distance of only a few miles. (80.9 was the lowest I saw, 95.9 the highest) Prices have been dropping for about a week now.
25.5 cents a litre is provincial/federal gas taxes I believe, plus there is a further 6 cents a litre if you fill up within the Greater Vancouver Regional District. Then of course there is 7% Goods and Services tax on that total. (tax on tax)
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