Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: May 09, 2004 Posts: 65 Location: Bavaria, Germany - for the Americans here: this is in Europa ;o)
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:22 am Post subject:
[quote="MattSavinar"]
Mower wrote:
keep in mind, 50 percent of the world has never made a phone call!!! And only 1.5 percent have consistent access to the internet.
So its true, the sky isn't falling. At least in most of the world that is.
Hi Matt,
those 1.5%-figure must be wrong! 1.5% of 6.5 Billions would mean there are only 100 million people who have consistent access to the Internet?
Germany alone has more than 60% of it's people having access to it, or about 50 million people, so these must be already half ot it. How large is the percentage of germans on people you've found in the iinternet?!
I think in the US the percentage must also be around 50% which would mean 140 Millions or 2.5% of world population, already more than your 1.5% which perhaps was the right number in 1997.
Joined: Apr 10, 2004 Posts: 143 Location: Tulsa OK
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:48 am Post subject:
Chicagoan wrote:
"It is bad for us. But good for our children and grandchildren."
I realize this is you opinion and as such is as valid as any other, but I think that if we "fall off the industrial cliff", that to believe suddenly everything will be okay for your children and grandchildren is optimistic in the extreme. It has taken @ 175 years to build the present oil based economy and I would believe it will take more than one or two generations for the human race to recover if it can to any meaningful degree. Of course that is my opinion also and I could be wrong. _________________ ------------------------------------There's the way things are, and the way they oughta be.What you do is more important than how you "feel".
keep in mind, 50 percent of the world has never made a phone call!!! And only 1.5 percent have consistent access to the internet.
So its true, the sky isn't falling. At least in most of the world that is.
Hi Matt,
those 1.5%-figure must be wrong! 1.5% of 6.5 Billions would mean there are only 100 million people who have consistent access to the Internet?
Germany alone has more than 60% of it's people having access to it, or about 50 million people, so these must be already half ot it. How large is the percentage of germans on people you've found in the iinternet?!
I think in the US the percentage must also be around 50% which would mean 140 Millions or 2.5% of world population, already more than your 1.5% which perhaps was the right number in 1997.
Maybe that was the number in 1997. Whatever the exact number is (will find out when I have a bit more time) it has to be a relatively small number - less than 25 percent total.
Anyway you cut it, folks like us are definitely in the minority
I am unconvinced "P.O." is coming or will end Industrialization.
Not end civilization, just civilization as we know it...
The end of "Hydrocarbon Man" as it has been described.
I don't agree that the poor huddled masses yearning to breath free won't be affected. For all the criticism America receives for being such pigs in consumption, remember that we are the leading customer for many markets around the world. If the industrial world falters even a little, the effects on global markets would be devastating. Who will buy rubber dogshit from China if not stupid Americans?
It's pretty obvious from population and industry demographics that the oil boom is responsible, more than any other aspect, for accelerating our economic & social growth these last 100 years.
Don't be fooled by the "percent" calculations on depletion. 2% seems like a manageable number no? But remember the artificial cut in oil supplies from the OPEC embargo in the 70's caused a massive disruption to global markets, and precipitated a recession and stagflation which rippled for a decade. That was a temporary drop of only 5% in oil supplies, and only for embargo targets like the US. Imagine post-peak as a permanent embargo which grows larger every year, affects every nation on earth, and has no ready solution.
The end of man... probably not, (excluding nuclear war).
Lasting global economic recession, hyper inflation, starvation, disease control, resource conflicts, and social unrest... seems likely unless we solve for our missing megawatts... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
If and when we peak, how long will that plateau last I wonder? It sounds like we could prolong it for a few years so those of us watching can prepare as best we can. To do nothing to prepare (ie, get out of the cities and suburbia and become as self-suffienct as possible) is to die, sure as hell.
My own biggest dilemma: my wife will not believe me and even should I convince her this may not come to pass and I'll have wrecked her life too for no good reason. I worry most for my 2 little girls.
As for the effects of the peak...it won't be immediate. We won't know when the actual peak was until afterwards. I expect to see a lot of people reacting like those heating oil dealers in the article on the front page of this site. They are reluctant to buy oil now, though this is the time of year they usually buy it, because prices are so high. Yet they also worry that prices will only get higher, so they don't know what to do. It will take awhile before people realize that prices are only getting higher.
In the long run, I think peak oil will affect almost everyone on the planet. Even the people who don't use electricity daily have become dependent on imported food, fertilizers, etc. Native peoples have been chased from their traditional lands, to places where they can no longer practice their way of life. (Much as we did to Native Americans.) The world populations is three or four times higher than is sustainable without oil.
My own biggest dilemma: my wife will not believe me and even should I convince her this may not come to pass and I'll have wrecked her life too for no good reason. I worry most for my 2 little girls.
I think you will find a board full of sympathetic ears on this one.
We have had many posts along these lines thus far.
There is much heated debate even among those here as to what this all means, so if there is genuine argument among folks who are informed and searching... how then do folks outside this community perceive this issue?
Pops has some good advice for this I think... search the forums for his posts...
So don't round up the family and run off to a uni-bomber style shack just yet... But perhaps making decisions based on an uncertain future is best.
Become more energy efficient... Keep investments in safer low-return places... Acquire emergency supplies in case of any disaster... Decrease your income/debt ratio... educate yourself in "old fashioned" ways of doing things...
All of that advice is probably a good idea... peak or not.
When broaching this subject with the uninformed, start with the moderate material and go from there. Many people, your wife may be one, will bolt if the first thing they see is a Hollywood disaster movie script.
Sit down and watch the Smalley presentation with the wife and some other girlfriends she respects, and let em discuss the issue themselves.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6372 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:59 am Post subject:
We’re all just speculators mower.
My guess is that we’ll feel the peak by way of inflation, recession and layoffs way before we starve or freeze. As to the “plateau”, I think that may be false hope, since bumping along the top means recession-induced drops in demand followed by increasing oil prices when demand returns – all together not good.
Read the “Assessments and Plans” threads in the planning forum, lots of people are in the same boat.
You don’t need to convince anyone, just go about doing what you think needs done – reduce your debt, increase your independence.
Download the FEMA 72 hour kit and one of the food storage planners from the downloads page and get to work.
Prepare for as many things to happen as you can, and prepare for nothing to happen as well.
{Madge – you are killing me!} _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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