Economic Frenzy

MD · Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:33 pm Post subject: Economic Frenzy

Back in 1999, I noted a frenzy of business activity all centered around preparing for Y2K. Much of the slowdown, that is now mostly blamed on 911, actually began shortly after January 1, 2000, when the nation let out a collective sigh of relief.

Today, I see a similar frenzy, but without a specific Y2K event driving it along. People are scrambling in preparation, maybe not knowing exactly why, but there is a sense that "something is wrong".
There is a deep and almost universal understanding that our recovery since 911 is temporary. People are very concerned for their jobs, their future, our future as a nation. Various fingers point to China, Iraq, Bin Laden, Oil prices, a very few point to sustainability, and ecology.

It seems like a classic case of waiting for the "other shoe to drop."

That's what I see in Ohio, in my world.
_________________
"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein

md@peakoil.com

Petro · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 375

I've been pondering this same phenomenon lately while watching the news. Ugh! I just don't understand were the world is anymore. All day long I was pumped up for the 'big news', an interview with a 12 year old boy, who was lost, but now is found. OK it's really a great thing. But all networks (well most of the MSM - you know of who I speak), and there is really, really, important news out there. I'm selling my home, (already listed), and moving. New house will be a cash deal, car is paid for. No debt. I no longer understand anything, but playing it safe anyway. All those pundits who bowed and couldn't wait to lick the royal ass of Greenspan are now saying he's confused over the econ. But you know what? It's becomming easier to see the deadness, and lies in their eyes. It's all so transparent, but does alienate me somewhat from my fellow man. Just a rant along the vein of your post...hope it's not out-of-line

MD · Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:31 pm Post subject:

Unfortunately, our posts clearly display the psychological response seen in new members of any common cult!

Sorry about that, it really ticks me off too, but that's the reality.
_________________
"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein

md@peakoil.com

Petro · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 375

lol I'm hardly new...PO Informed since 1995 I'm almost vintage Smile

LadyRuby · Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:41 pm Post subject:

I sort of feel like I'm living in a house of cards. Real estate prices are ready to burst, the deficit continues to grow, the war goes on and on, oil prices go up. I just don't see any positive indicators.

marko · Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:48 pm Post subject:

Of course we on this list feel this way. We are aware of the credit/housing bubble and the strong possibility of energy shortages.

However, I'm not so sure that most Americans have the same anxiety. I think that there is a degree of frenzy and mania around the housing bubble, especially in the Northeast and California.

But even though I live in Boston, with some of the most ridiculous housing prices, I don't think that my coworkers share my feeling of anxiety. Most of those who are paying attention to housing prices believe the hype that there is a limited supply of land and ever-increasing demand for housing, and that therefore prices can only continue to rise. Others are focused on their own little lives, their family issues, vacation plans... Honestly, I think that very few people around me see it coming.

Petro · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 375

Yeap; all the above. I have to be honest, I'm leveraging the housing buble. My house is valued, and will be sold (hopefully), at a hugely inflated price, at a more than 300% proffit. Thanks Miami. I've switched to survial mode in a major way lately, the fence is just too damn uncomfortable. I will consider myself extremely lucky if near term plans work out. And yes I sort of feel sorry for the new owners, but not enough to keep me from selling. Lady after the last two years of, let's say mental sabatical, I no longer see any positive indicators on the horizon either, and consider myself foolish to sit and keep looking...I know this probably puts me in league with doomers, but I don't care...things on Wall Street, etc., just make me want to bash my TV in. I don't get it anymore, and am willing to accept this haha.

savethehumans · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 20, 2004 Posts: 1541

That would be because there aren't any. Sad

Petro's right. Hard to understand a world that would rather live under a lie until they die off. We have to do what we can, and find enough of us in our area who think as Petro does to start the foundations of communities. I find following the history of the end of this age fascinating, so I do it. Even keep records, so maybe we can avoid making the same mistakes. I don't even feel CONNECTED to this society anymore, cuz it's over, it just doesn't know it yet. I do try to be mentally prepared, and to find joy in things in life that don't need this modern age to exist. And I come to this site, and others. Little else left we can do, except prepare and pray.

Glad you all are here to post to!! Smile

FoxV · Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:16 pm Post subject:

Petro · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 375

yeah Fox I'm holding my breath, hoping they don't know what I know. But the house has been showing non-stop at advertised price so there's no shortage of peeps looking and able to do the deal. Will keep posted of course. I think you might have reached the same intelectual place I arrived at...it's the old bird-in-the-hand thing. When my gut tells me it's time I move. haha the only thing is Housing bubbel is going main-stream that is making me cringe...maybe I missjudged by 60 days. oh well, what was it PT Barnum said...

Zentric · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 14, 2005 Posts: 730

Agreeing with Marko that the anxiety isn't yet palpable among the general population. And I think this will remain the case as long as the mainstream media can convincingly stay "status quo" in their reporting.

Saying that though, the bubbles could burst or the Republican "everything's fine" facade could crumble any day now based upon the sheer weight of their lies. And, then, I doubt the MSM will feel the need to continue propping up lamers like Bush, Bolton or Greenspan. So at that point everything could begin unraveling fast, simultaneously sending everyone to the discount store to stock up on food and supplies. Or, sensing the inevitable, BushCo could make the first move in this regard, screwing the country but increasing their own survival odds.

But, veering back on topic, up to this point I've witnessed or heard no account of panic shopping or hoarding here in Washington State, or elsewhere for that matter.

MicroHydro · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2005 Posts: 1286

In NZ the housing market has already cooled down and petrol is NZ$5 per gallon, but consumer confidence remains high. In Sydney the housing bubble has popped, some high end properties down up to 40%. And the Aussie drought is severe. But nobody is slitting their wrists.

I believe that the feeling of doom in the US relates to feelings of guilt and sin. While materialism is everywhere, the US has the additional recent burden of supporting mass torture and wars of aggression. There has been very little US response to the Downing Street Memo, because everyone knew in their hearts that Bush was lying about WMD, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. Still, Americans were in the mood to murder some Moslems, just as they once worked out their issues by killing Indians or lynching Blacks. Americans have blood guilt, know they have done evil sin, and fear divine retribution in the next life if not this one.

Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations. If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world. When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.
_________________
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel

Petro · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 375

Not going to disagree with you, it's too early. However

MacG · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2005 Posts: 1169

Eli · Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:42 am Post subject:

Like every one else I kind of go back and forth on how PO will play out but.

"I am but mad north-north-west: when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw"

The talking heads who do the whoring for Wall Street will come around very quickly when the housing bubble bursts. They are only going to come around when the numbers start to look bad. The Housing starts, foreclosure rates and existing home sales and what the heck ever else they look at. They live in the world of numbers not reality.

The decline of real estate is going to put the breaks on the economy "big time" and PO will not be seen as an a legitimate cause.

They are going to say that high energy prices are the cause of inflation not peak oil. They will site all kinds of reason why and where for but defiantly not PO. They will say we are in a temporary slowdown and normal readjustment nothing to get worried about.

And we will reduce demand and see oil supply catch up in the short term. What will be telling is that no matter what is done energy will creep up and prevent the economy from recovering.

I would say this too that I think China and India even if there economies slow down will take all the spare capacity they can. You do not build billion dollar storage containers and not fill them. They know full well that they need energy and if the price dips it is the time to buy.

As long as nothing big happens we will be in for a softer decline not the big cliff that most fear.

Still I think the chances are zero that PO in energy will be sited as the source of the slow down. They will say the economy is bad because it of the housing decline, consuner confidence, the airline industry is down but never PO. PO is too big to for them to see in the numbers, because PO is makes the numbers.