Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3429 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:33 pm Post subject: Economic Frenzy
Back in 1999, I noted a frenzy of business activity all centered around preparing for Y2K. Much of the slowdown, that is now mostly blamed on 911, actually began shortly after January 1, 2000, when the nation let out a collective sigh of relief.
Today, I see a similar frenzy, but without a specific Y2K event driving it along. People are scrambling in preparation, maybe not knowing exactly why, but there is a sense that "something is wrong".
There is a deep and almost universal understanding that our recovery since 911 is temporary. People are very concerned for their jobs, their future, our future as a nation. Various fingers point to China, Iraq, Bin Laden, Oil prices, a very few point to sustainability, and ecology.
It seems like a classic case of waiting for the "other shoe to drop."
That's what I see in Ohio, in my world. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:17 pm Post subject: yeah what you said
I've been pondering this same phenomenon lately while watching the news. Ugh! I just don't understand were the world is anymore. All day long I was pumped up for the 'big news', an interview with a 12 year old boy, who was lost, but now is found. OK it's really a great thing. But all networks (well most of the MSM - you know of who I speak), and there is really, really, important news out there. I'm selling my home, (already listed), and moving. New house will be a cash deal, car is paid for. No debt. I no longer understand anything, but playing it safe anyway. All those pundits who bowed and couldn't wait to lick the royal ass of Greenspan are now saying he's confused over the econ. But you know what? It's becomming easier to see the deadness, and lies in their eyes. It's all so transparent, but does alienate me somewhat from my fellow man. Just a rant along the vein of your post...hope it's not out-of-line
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3429 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:31 pm Post subject:
Unfortunately, our posts clearly display the psychological response seen in new members of any common cult!
Sorry about that, it really ticks me off too, but that's the reality. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:41 pm Post subject:
I sort of feel like I'm living in a house of cards. Real estate prices are ready to burst, the deficit continues to grow, the war goes on and on, oil prices go up. I just don't see any positive indicators.
Joined: Jan 31, 2005 Posts: 451 Location: Massachusetts
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:48 pm Post subject:
Of course we on this list feel this way. We are aware of the credit/housing bubble and the strong possibility of energy shortages.
However, I'm not so sure that most Americans have the same anxiety. I think that there is a degree of frenzy and mania around the housing bubble, especially in the Northeast and California.
But even though I live in Boston, with some of the most ridiculous housing prices, I don't think that my coworkers share my feeling of anxiety. Most of those who are paying attention to housing prices believe the hype that there is a limited supply of land and ever-increasing demand for housing, and that therefore prices can only continue to rise. Others are focused on their own little lives, their family issues, vacation plans... Honestly, I think that very few people around me see it coming.
Yeap; all the above. I have to be honest, I'm leveraging the housing buble. My house is valued, and will be sold (hopefully), at a hugely inflated price, at a more than 300% proffit. Thanks Miami. I've switched to survial mode in a major way lately, the fence is just too damn uncomfortable. I will consider myself extremely lucky if near term plans work out. And yes I sort of feel sorry for the new owners, but not enough to keep me from selling. Lady after the last two years of, let's say mental sabatical, I no longer see any positive indicators on the horizon either, and consider myself foolish to sit and keep looking...I know this probably puts me in league with doomers, but I don't care...things on Wall Street, etc., just make me want to bash my TV in. I don't get it anymore, and am willing to accept this haha.
Petro's right. Hard to understand a world that would rather live under a lie until they die off. We have to do what we can, and find enough of us in our area who think as Petro does to start the foundations of communities. I find following the history of the end of this age fascinating, so I do it. Even keep records, so maybe we can avoid making the same mistakes. I don't even feel CONNECTED to this society anymore, cuz it's over, it just doesn't know it yet. I do try to be mentally prepared, and to find joy in things in life that don't need this modern age to exist. And I come to this site, and others. Little else left we can do, except prepare and pray.
My house is valued, and will be sold (hopefully), at a hugely inflated price, at a more than 300% proffit. Thanks Miami.
let us know how that goes Petro. it appears that the bubble is starting its burst (although haven't heard any new sales/forclosure stats in a month). So it would be nice to see you "getting out" just in time (A win for the good guys I guess )
btw, I've also convinced my office mate to put his extra lot up for sale. Rural lots are up around 200% to 400% in my area. He originally bought it (3 years ago) to keep some distance from McMansions. But I told him "hey with the way things are looking, probably the only thing that will ever be put on the lot is another for sale sign, so get your cash while you can and don't worry about neighbours"
That and with a possible 4X return on his money, it was pretty easy to convince him _________________ Angry yet?
yeah Fox I'm holding my breath, hoping they don't know what I know. But the house has been showing non-stop at advertised price so there's no shortage of peeps looking and able to do the deal. Will keep posted of course. I think you might have reached the same intelectual place I arrived at...it's the old bird-in-the-hand thing. When my gut tells me it's time I move. haha the only thing is Housing bubbel is going main-stream that is making me cringe...maybe I missjudged by 60 days. oh well, what was it PT Barnum said...
Agreeing with Marko that the anxiety isn't yet palpable among the general population. And I think this will remain the case as long as the mainstream media can convincingly stay "status quo" in their reporting.
Saying that though, the bubbles could burst or the Republican "everything's fine" facade could crumble any day now based upon the sheer weight of their lies. And, then, I doubt the MSM will feel the need to continue propping up lamers like Bush, Bolton or Greenspan. So at that point everything could begin unraveling fast, simultaneously sending everyone to the discount store to stock up on food and supplies. Or, sensing the inevitable, BushCo could make the first move in this regard, screwing the country but increasing their own survival odds.
But, veering back on topic, up to this point I've witnessed or heard no account of panic shopping or hoarding here in Washington State, or elsewhere for that matter.
In NZ the housing market has already cooled down and petrol is NZ$5 per gallon, but consumer confidence remains high. In Sydney the housing bubble has popped, some high end properties down up to 40%. And the Aussie drought is severe. But nobody is slitting their wrists.
I believe that the feeling of doom in the US relates to feelings of guilt and sin. While materialism is everywhere, the US has the additional recent burden of supporting mass torture and wars of aggression. There has been very little US response to the Downing Street Memo, because everyone knew in their hearts that Bush was lying about WMD, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. Still, Americans were in the mood to murder some Moslems, just as they once worked out their issues by killing Indians or lynching Blacks. Americans have blood guilt, know they have done evil sin, and fear divine retribution in the next life if not this one.
Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations. If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world. When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Not going to disagree with you, it's too early. However
Quote:
Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations. If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world. When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.
... is not an admirable response. The US is not the sole satan, in the world, but there is probably already a thread on America bashing. Cheers
Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations.
Maybe not rage, but a deep despice. At least among some of us natives who see the barrage of utter folly going on here. It might be a decent place after the crash though.
MicroHydro wrote:
If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world
I doubt that anyone outside would prioritize their spare time to sending us any thoughts whatsoever....
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3909 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:42 am Post subject:
Like every one else I kind of go back and forth on how PO will play out but.
"I am but mad north-north-west: when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw"
The talking heads who do the whoring for Wall Street will come around very quickly when the housing bubble bursts. They are only going to come around when the numbers start to look bad. The Housing starts, foreclosure rates and existing home sales and what the heck ever else they look at. They live in the world of numbers not reality.
The decline of real estate is going to put the breaks on the economy "big time" and PO will not be seen as an a legitimate cause.
They are going to say that high energy prices are the cause of inflation not peak oil. They will site all kinds of reason why and where for but defiantly not PO. They will say we are in a temporary slowdown and normal readjustment nothing to get worried about.
And we will reduce demand and see oil supply catch up in the short term. What will be telling is that no matter what is done energy will creep up and prevent the economy from recovering.
I would say this too that I think China and India even if there economies slow down will take all the spare capacity they can. You do not build billion dollar storage containers and not fill them. They know full well that they need energy and if the price dips it is the time to buy.
As long as nothing big happens we will be in for a softer decline not the big cliff that most fear.
Still I think the chances are zero that PO in energy will be sited as the source of the slow down. They will say the economy is bad because it of the housing decline, consuner confidence, the airline industry is down but never PO. PO is too big to for them to see in the numbers, because PO is makes the numbers.
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