The UK government during its EU presidency will seek to overcome differences with Russia on key outstanding issues that have prevented a Transit Protocol for gas supplies from being concluded, Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks has revealed.
"As part of our EU presidency union, the UK will work closely with all relevant parties to try to conclude the Transit Protocol negotiations, although success remains dependent on the EU and Russia being able to resolve their differences," Wicks said
_________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
U.K. Trade and Investment, a British government organization, hopes that Russia will become the main supplier of natural gas to the U.K., Chief Executive Sir Stephen Brown told an oil and gas conference in Moscow on Tuesday.
_________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:13 pm Post subject:
While we're talking about the UK gas situation it's worth sparing a though for the poor Irish. They are more dependent on gas than the UK with no nuclear and get most of their gas from the UK! If the UK's in trouble gas with gas supplies, the Irish are in even worse shape.
I had dinner with Julian Darley last week and I agree with him that gas is every bit as serious as oil yet no one's talking about it. For the UK I think gas depletion is more important than oil. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 2500 Location: Ye Olde Englande
Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:18 pm Post subject:
I've been trying to estimate what the situation is going to be like in 2010.
However working out who to believe is giving the most accurate figure for natural gas depletion rates is annoying. The EIA website quotes the DTI as saying that in 2003 the UK produced 4 tcf. However the BP report for 2003 says that gas production was at 10 bcf/d. Obviously this makes a total of 3.65 tcf for the year. This is why the BP report says that natural gas depletion was only 6.7% last year. Compare this to the reports that say the decline was 13% last year and this begins to look really annoying.
But it's all part of depletion modelling I guess.
Anyway I used a depletion rate of 11% and came to a figure of just under 2 tcf for 2010. Though I feel this to be slightly optimistic.
If consumption rates grow at the same rate then consumption will be around 3.6 tcf/y.
Overall I estimate a shortfall of between 1.8-2.2 tcf/y by the year 2010.
Anyone else have any figures. Maybe I'm being too optimistic/pessimistic. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
I don't follow gas too much. Globally, the wild card is Russia, I think.
they have 22% of the production, and only 15% of the consumption, so they are going to be keeping Europe warm.
Also, the other wild card is discoveries: there seem to be more gas discoveries than oil discoveries, although I have not tracked this carefully.
North America looks to be close to depletion, but consumption was nearly flat between '03 and '04.
A consortium of companies, led by BG, Ruhrgas, and Distrigas, operates the Interconnector pipeline between Bacton, England and Zeebrugge, Belgium. The 145-mile Interconnector came on-stream in 1998, and its current export capacity from the UK is 1.9 Bcf/d. The Interconnector can also operate in "import mode," instead sending 800 Mmcf/d to the UK from the Continent.
In 2003, the UK and Norway finalized the necessary political conditions for construction of the Britpipe linking Norway's Ormen Lange natural gas field to Easington, England. The 750-mile Britpipe would be the longest sub sea pipeline in the world, with an initial capacity of 1.9 Bcf/d and planned maximum capacity of 2.9 Bcf/y. Both counties expect construction on Britpipe to finish by 2007.
Gasunie plans to build a 146-mile gas pipeline linking Balgzand, the Netherlands to Bacton, England. Initial construction on the Balgzad-Bacton Line (BBL) began in October 2004, with completion of the project expected by the end of 2006. According to Gasunie, the BBL will have an initial capacity of 1.1 Bcf/d, with a maximum capacity of 1.7 Bcf/d.
In 2004, the Russian government approved construction of the 1,100-mile North European Gas (NEG) pipeline linking Vyborg, Russia with Greiswald, Germany and, ultimately, the east coast of the UK. Gazprom has stated that NEG could come on-stream by 2010 with a maximum capacity of 2.9 Bcf/d. Despite the approval of the Russian government, the NEG is still in the early planning stages, and some analysts have raised questions about the economic feasibility of the project.
The Interconnector pipe from Belgium, one pipeline from Norway, one from Holland and another from Germany. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:43 am Post subject:
I have a problem with the logic that building a pipeline capable of carrying say 2bcf/d is the same as guaranteeing future supply of 2bcf/d at reasonable prices. The two are NOT the same thing. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
Plus 30bcm (32% of current consumption) from LNG Stu
Quote:
The LNG will be exported to a dedicated receiving terminal currently being constructed at South Hook Terminal in Milford Haven, West Wales, UK. Gas delivery is scheduled to start by the winter of 2007-08. The project will process 30 billion m³ of gas per annum and will produce 15.8mtpa of LNG, 6 MMTA of condensates and 1.7 MMTA of propane/butane.
The ships will be the largest in the world at 210,000 cm(LNG) * 620 = 130,200,000 cm per ship.
So 30bcm/130.2m = 230 ships per annum. Obviously you build stocks in the summer and deplete in the winter etc etc
Quote:
Three South Korean shipyards were commissioned to build eight state-of-the-art tankers that will be 50% larger than conventional LNG ships. Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering will produce four 210,000m³ tankers at a cost of around $875 million, while Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries took orders estimated at $450 million to build two vessels each.
First deliveries are the winter of 2007/08
Quote:
Gas delivery is scheduled to start by the winter of 2007-08. The project will process 30 billion m³ of gas per annum and will produce 15.8mtpa of LNG, 6 MMTA of condensates and 1.7 MMTA of propane/butane.
Lets hope we have an economic system in the future to pay for it !
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:51 am Post subject:
clv101 wrote:
I have a problem with the logic that building a pipeline capable of carrying say 2bcf/d is the same as guaranteeing future supply of 2bcf/d at reasonable prices. The two are NOT the same thing.
No thats true, but then gas for export has to be priced to sell (after all these countries rely on the revenue from these exports). If we cannot afford any as the 4th largest economy, who else is "affording" the price of this gas?
While we're talking about the UK gas situation it's worth sparing a though for the poor Irish. They are more dependent on gas than the UK with no nuclear and get most of their gas from the UK! If the UK's in trouble gas with gas supplies, the Irish are in even worse shape.
Corrib field development boosts Irish hopes. Enterprise Oil approved a £400-million ($580-million) development of Corrib gas field - the first offshore development in Ireland in two decades. Corrib has reserves of around 1 Tcf, equivalent to about 170 million bbl of oil. The firm's decision is exciting for Ireland, because a gas shortage is predicted for the country within the next few years, as its gas demand rises. The situation is compounded by the fact that Kinsale - the country's primary offshore field - has a limited production life. Enterprise Energy Ireland's Managing Director, Brian O'Cathain, said that first gas from Corrib is expected by summer 2003. This is the second field that this UK-based independent has operated outside of the North Sea.
This will help keep the wolf from the door for a while, but yeah we are in dire straits here due to our reliance on fossil fuels. This is Colin Campbells main concern also. Lucky we have a mild climate (until the gulf stream stops at least). _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 2500 Location: Ye Olde Englande
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:40 am Post subject:
Using the estimates from the DOE website, I've estimated the potentially how much we will import from abroad by the end of the decade and how much it will cover the shortfall from the North Sea.
The Interconnector Pipe from Zeebrugge to Bacton can import 0.8 bcf/d. Over the space of a year that is 292 bcf.
The pipeline from the Ormen Lange field in Norway is expected to be finished by 2007 with an initial transfer rate of 1.9 bcf/d with hopes to get a maximum capacity of 2.9 bcf/d. Initially the transfer rate will be 694 bcf/y rising to just over 1 tcf/y if the pipeline reaches maximum capacity.
The pipeline from the Netherlands is expected to have a maximum capacity of 1.7 bcf/d. This equals a rate of 621 bcf/y
The pipeline from Germany is expected to hold a maximum capacity of 2.9 bcf/d which is just over 1 tcf/y. However this pipeline is not guaranteed.
The LNG terminal in Kent will take in 1.5 bcf/d. This equals 548 bcf/y.
The LNG terminal in Wales will take in 2.1 bcf/d by 2009. This is 767 bcf/y.
Therefore the total amount of LNG coming into the country by the end of the decade is estimated to be just over 1.3 tcf/y.
The total amount of gas coming in through pipelines (if we discount the German pipeline) is just over 1.8 tcf/y giving us an estimated total of over 3.1 tcf/y of natural gas coming from abroad.
Given the current decline and consumption rates then it looks as if everything will be allright in 2010. However that of course depends on a number of factors e.g supply disruptions, producer declines etc. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Joined: Sep 30, 2004 Posts: 975 Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:03 am Post subject: Link
Below is the link to the Royal Bank Of Scotland May report which had the 17.5% figure. Stu, you will want to take a look at this.
Please write your conclusions in large crayon for the innumerates like me who can barely do arithmetic
RBS research report Pdf file _________________ The other place that believes completely in the right to keep and bear arms, particularly to use against foreign invaders and tyrants is: Afghanistan.
While the long-term trend remains one of declining output, the history of North Sea energy production suggests there could be some form of surge in production over the next few years
Quote:
which, in 2002, suggested there was an untapped supply of oil under the North Sea of more than 42 billion barrels
Blimey and the UK only uses 0.7 billion per year -- where did they get this mindlessly optimistic figure from?
Quote:
Mr Wood sees a number of reasons for the slowdown in production - not linked to supply but because companies are restrained by the number of skilled individuals and resources available.
"Everyone is competing for the same labour, the same oil rigs and the same technology," RBS's chief economist argues.
Is he implying that production is down because we havent the rigs and personnel rather than a shortage of new fields or new wells?
Quote:
Independent firms working in the North Sea must become more broadly focused if the region's 25 to 30 billion barrels-worth of estimated reserves are to be tapped successfully.
Untapped reserves of 25 - 30 billion , the figures have changed already! But at least its been independently varified?
If this number is right , then assuming no decline rate the north sea would last 30/0.7 billion = 42 Years. But of course production follows a bell shape so it could be longer wahoooo (although we would have to do with less oil per year as production falls...)
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 2500 Location: Ye Olde Englande
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:13 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Despite the falling output, a trend which, in the long term, is unlikely to be reversed, Mr Wood believes things are on the whole pretty encouraging.
"The next two to three years look like they will be an exciting time for the industry," he enthuses.
That makes no sense whatsoever.
When I was in Edinburgh I heard stories about North Sea oil wells that had been abandoned even though they were at least only 30% depleted. Maybe the economic situation is ripe for them to extract whatever oil is left that they couldn't before. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
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