Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 5:19 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Tanada wrote:
I would love to live in a passive solar house on a south facing hillside, however my lot in the city is 35 feet by 65 feet. Not a lot of room to dump a hill of dirt and earth shelter a house.
You're lucky. I rent a tiny flat in town. Now, from the point of view of heating, tiny is good... unless you've got windows that are literally from the 19th century, leaving enough space to ventilate the flat even when you don't open the windows ever. I'd love to change these windows to better ones, but like I said, I rent. I would need a) permission from my landlady and b) be fairly certain that I'd live in here for long enough that it would compensate to change windows. Unfortunately, I have neither.
Of course, it's also completely impossible to get my own electricity by any means.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 6:25 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Ludi wrote:
Tanada wrote:
You want solar electricity? Thats fine, how long does it take for them to pay off in terms of energy produced vs energy required to build them, and in economic terms how long till they pay for themselves?
"Considering that solar panels typically have useful lives of 20 years or more, the electric energy recovery will range from 400% (in the case of a 5 year energy payback) to 2000% (in the case of a 1 year energy payback).
These figures demonstrate that a barrel of oil [equivalent] invested in making solar panels can effectively generate sufficient electricity to recover the investment of that barrel of oil with 4 barrels of oil [equivalent] as a minimum and up to 20 barrels of oil in the optimistic scenario. This is like investing in a savings account at an interest rate ranging from 20% to 100%. At the low end, this is a healthy return on investment!"
In economic terms, how long until a grid connection pays for itself?
Because i live in the city I would need a tower some 30 feet tall to hold my panals up out of the shadow of the surrounding buildings. I doubt I could get permission from the city for that any more than I could for the windmill, but at least it wouldn't be noisy
Don't take this for criticism, the link was interesting and might work well for someone in the southwest where I understand you to live, but here in my city, surrounded by other tightly packed houses with large shade trees solar looses much of its potential benefit. The shade trees help a lot with cooling in the summer, they are nice to look at, and if all else fails the seeds they produce would serve as a very short term emergency food supply They also block the sun pretty well except for short periods of the day in winter due to the low incident angle of the sun. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11174 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
I think there is much about our cities which is inherently unsustainable and needs to be changed gradually. There is quite a bit of literature about appropriate housing design, which does not need to involve widely spaced housing. Densely packed areas of highrises probably can't be maintained in the long run, however.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Doly wrote:
Tanada wrote:
I would love to live in a passive solar house on a south facing hillside, however my lot in the city is 35 feet by 65 feet. Not a lot of room to dump a hill of dirt and earth shelter a house.
You're lucky. I rent a tiny flat in town. Now, from the point of view of heating, tiny is good... unless you've got windows that are literally from the 19th century, leaving enough space to ventilate the flat even when you don't open the windows ever. I'd love to change these windows to better ones, but like I said, I rent. I would need a) permission from my landlady and b) be fairly certain that I'd live in here for long enough that it would compensate to change windows. Unfortunately, I have neither.
Of course, it's also completely impossible to get my own electricity by any means.
Been there, done that. Took me over a decade of living in crap apartments before I could afford to buy this house, all I can say is, look towards a better tomorrow, if you make a financial plan and fovrce yourself to live within it you will be able to upgrade in the future. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
The nine questions you should ask about alternative energy for yourself are:
1) Can you do it at all? There are solar backpacks that charge a laptop.
2) Can you afford to do it? You can start small.
3) Do you know anything about it? The web has lots of info, but is it useful?
4) Who can help you? Lots of people know a lot about this stuff.
5) Does it make sense? Maybe you don't need to spend $20,000 to produce the same electricity you use now for $30 a month, but you can start to diversify your energy supply.
6) How do I start to do something? Get the Real Goods Catalog. Think.
7) Where do they sell this stuff? Lots on the internet, but hard to visualize things with information just on the net.
What is a certified solar installer? Lots around. Some will help you install yourself. It's a great way to do it!
9) If you have figured out all the other questions, Why not do something?
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Quote:
"Considering that solar panels typically have useful lives of 20 years or more, the electric energy recovery will range from 400% (in the case of a 5 year energy payback) to 2000% (in the case of a 1 year energy payback).
You can get much bigger energy payback by using solar concentrators with VMJ cells, as then you're only using 1/1000 the silicon, the optic surfaces being relatively low energy intense optics.
Quote:
In economic terms, how long until a grid connection pays for itself?
In economic terms currently solar is a huge loser given all the other ways to produce power are far less expensive.
I expect solar will eventually be competitive. There are huge economic incentives to the engineers that make it so.
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 6:59 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
1)does it produce electicity , fuel or heating ?
2)is it available today ?
3)how fast can it scale ?
4) is it acceptable from an enviromental view or is it a case of nimby
does it require a lot of land ? does it degrade the value of land near the point of generation ?
5)can you produce it everywhere ?
6) does it require a limited resourse ? like platinum for example ?
7) can it use our current infrastucture or does it require a new one ?
can it be produced locally ?
9) does the use of such a technology labels you as poor or phyco or as a fashion victim?
10) eroi
11) cost _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 446 Location: Salem, MA
Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2005 8:54 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Ludi wrote:
I think there is much about our cities which is inherently unsustainable and needs to be changed gradually. There is quite a bit of literature about appropriate housing design, which does not need to involve widely spaced housing. Densely packed areas of highrises probably can't be maintained in the long run, however.
My wife and I were looking into the new Forbes Park Lofts in Chelsea, MA. It's close to the city (though probably would have to take a bus to the train), is being developed with energy effeciency and sustainability in mind, and the building has a fleet of Smart Cars for the residents to share. They will start selling lofts in October of 2006 I believe...
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2005 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
Deconstructionist's idea sounds great! Those Forbes park lofts solve a multitude of problems that people have now. You can use a smart car whenever you want, so you don't have to own or maintain a vehicle, they re-use existing industrial space, so it isn't like living in some schlock condo. They are near everything that's happening and mass transit. What's not to like? This is the housing of the 21st century, not the last century. I am glad to hear that somebody gets it. Maybe they've been reading Kunstler!
Joined: Feb 01, 2006 Posts: 12 Location: California
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2006 12:18 am Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
After a short 150 years we now know fossil fuels cannot and will not continue to be the global energy standard. So we might as well ask a list of questions that could lead us to the energy choices for the future.
This is the beginning of the list:
1. Energy density (oil is densest)
2. Build cost/MW
3. Surface area/MW
4. Lifecycle costs
5. Total emissions (including heat)
6. Safety of operation (obviously nuclear is first here)
7. Number of energy conversions
8. Cost of energy infrastructure ($10 trillion replacement cost for current global fossil fuel system)
9. Overall energy conversion (roughly 30% for current fossil fuel system)
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:36 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
1000 donkeys working for an hour is about a megawatt hour
that is about one barrel of oil. _________________ ___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
This posted information is not permissible to be used
by anyone who has ever met a lawyer
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
I figure that alternatives are cheap insurance. I have a job now, and am able to do some of this stuff. I may not have it for long if peak oil really starts to bite. Putting this solar stuff on my roof is a way of:
1) learning about how pv solar and solar thermal works
2) demonstrating that it can be done
3) defraying the cost of the half hour showers my teenager likes to take.
4) getting a really fun toy that I can rationalize to my wife on the grounds that it will save energy and money.
5) allaying some of my peak oil worries.
6) saving money. The cost of the systems is adding value to my house, and it is saving over 10% of it's cost per year, so it's better than money in the bank.
7) amaze and stupefy my friends
the cool factor. Be the first kid on your block to have solar hot water.
9) The savings in greenhouse gas producing fossil fuels makes you feel like you may actually be doing something about the problem of global warming.
Check out the website below under www. Click on the pics for more info. Come visit our house October 1st, it'll be on the solar tour!
Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
The start up costs are eaten up by whatever you save over the following years. You can take out a home improvement loan and pay it back with savings in future years. We cleaned out our savings to do what we've done, but that's money we would have handed to the energy providers later otherwise. Check under www below for our energy saving projects. The best alternative energy project is efficiency and conservation. The biggest payback is insulating and caulking.
Nine Critical Questions to Ask About Alternative Energy
1. How Much Energy is Returned for the Energy Invested (EROEI)?
2. Have the claims been verified by an independent third party?
3. Can I see the alternative energy being used?
4. Can you trace it back to the original energy source?
5. Does the invention defy the Laws of Thermodynamics?
6. Does the inventor make extravagant claims?
7. Does the inventor claim zero pollution?
8. Can I see blueprints, schematics or a chemical analysis of how it works?
9. Infrastructure Requirements -- Does the energy source require a corporation to produce it? How will it be transported and used? Will it require new engines, pipelines, and filling stations? What will these cost? Who will pay for them and with what? How long will it take to build them?
How Does H2-PV, taken as a whole answer these questions?
1: Each acre of PV cell surfaces @ 13% efficiency generates 12/watts per square foot, 43,560 square feet per acre, (12 x 43560 = 522,720) 522 kWh per peak sunny hour. In vast swaths of 8 sunny southwest USA sunbelt states there are a daily average of 6 peak hours per day (more in long summer days, less in short winter or stormy days). That is DC output measured at the panel power taps. Subtract about 10% for inversion to AC, comes to 470 kWh/hr. Crystallization energy to operate an EMC furnace comes to 12 kWh/kg Si. 470/12 = 39 kilograms of PV SI crystallized per sunny hour. Each kilogram of Si crystal produces 1.2 meters squared (m^2) of PV cell surfaces after sawdust losses in slicing and nominal breakage in process by current industry standards. 46.8 m^2 of net crystal waferstocks are produced each peak sunny hour by one EMC furnace. It requires 86.5 sunny hours to crystallize one acre of PV cell surfaces. The energy payback of crystallization is 14 days of 6-hours per day peak sunny hours. The Si crystal stock represents 30% of the total costs of PV panels, and has a global value in the Si crystal ingot market -- it can be traded for everything else needed. Unless you believe in "energy fairies" giving free energy anyplace in the product chain, then the same cost of energy is embedded in every product or service bought to produce the final panels. Multiplying the energy of crystallization by 3.33 to determine the whole costs of energy including human energy and financial energy, comes to 47 days for 100% total energy payback time to create one acre of PV from one acre PV breeder operation.
The math doesn't lie, but people do for a lot of various reasons. Trust the math and distrust the people who say different.
2: Si made by the EMC process is the largest segment of the PV market by far. It has 20 years proven demonstrations and PV panels made with it have warranties up to 25 years long.
3: You can see samples working everywhere. Chances are you own a small or larger PV solar cell gadget of some kind. Battery operated lawn lights recharged by PV are cheap and commonplace.
4: You can trace back to Einsteins Nobel Prize, or trace to the sun. The USA PV Patent is # 4572812, and you can look it up in the US Patent and Trademark Office website by that number. It is expired, open-source, public-domain technology invented at US taxpayer expense and you own it -- no royalties to pay anybody.
5: The invention is completely within known thermodynamics. It has been proven first by 20 successful years application to casting aluminum and other metals, followed by another successful 20 years adapted to making PV crystal ingots.
6: The claims made are well substantiated -- they may seem extravagant to people whom have been deceived by competitor's propaganda badmouthing Solar PV.
7: There is zero pollution in using the PV for it's lifespan. There may be some waste disposal issues at end-of-life which are minor. The purification of SiO2 to Si for making the crystals are many different technologies, some are much more polluting than others, but none are as polluting as mainstream energy choices. Very low pollution-emission SiO2 purification technologies are open-source public domain and free for everybody to use.
8: All the required instructions are archived in the USPTO website and freely available to every person in the world with an internet connection.
9: State of the Art EMC furnaces are probably beyond the means of small-to-medium sized businesses. More modest furnaces can be built in machine shops in any town or city of the USA, usually without needing out-of-state parts. More than one furnace can be under one roof, and in fact, that is the normal situation. A small to medium sized business can begin with one furnace and scale up. Raw materials purification to solar-grade Si are also public domain open-sourced royalty-free in the USPTO. One acre of PV cell surfaces is 4047 m^2, produced by 3369 kilograms of Si crystal. The density of Si crystal is 2.33 grams/cc, thus there are 52 cubic feet of Si crystal required to make one acre of PV cell surfaces (including normal wastes in production). 2 cubic yards of Si crystals can be made from no more than 7 cubic yards of sand input materials, costing $200 delivered by the local concrete plant or landscaper supply. None of the materials are strategically scarce or vulnerable to choke-points by cartels manipulating the marketplace. The sands are acid-processed in polypropylene 55 gallon barrels commonly available used steam-cleaned at cheap prices. Some safety equipment and a few other items and a business is ready to turn $200 of sand into 43,560 square feet of waferstocks.
H2-PV using the EMC furnaces is a licence to print money. Each square foot of PV wafer the thickness of a business card at $1/watt is a $12 bill spendable over most of the planet.
A whole integrated PV plant today costs roughly $2 million to build, and takes 2 years from groundbreaking to having salable products. Five friends can put a 2nd mortgage on their houses and be in the business. That's BEFORE the EMC open-source method of making Model-T EMC furnaces. The H2-PV project is to assemble all the necessary technologies of open-source public domain "good enough" processes, methods and machines so as to guarantee that 60,000 entrepreneurs can rapidly begin each making a square mile of PV to supply all the energy required by America from sunlight alone within ten years time. Since everything will be open, public and royalty-free there are no entry barriers other than sufficient gumption and business sense.
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What is a certified solar installer? Lots around. Some will help you install yourself. It's a great way to do it!
