Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:24 am Post subject: US, China, Russia, Israel and Persian Gulf Oil = WW3?
The Russians are supplying the Iranians with fuel rods for their reactor that will be capable of producing weapons grade material. Putin assures the US the stuff will be returned to Russia for safe keeping while Israel threatens to bomb the reactor.
As part of the deal the Russians are also apparently building a pipeline from their oil fields down through to the Iranian ports. Finally they'll have access to a warm water harbour! Putin has also been making noises about trading oil and gas with Europe for Euros rather than $US as well as assuring the Syrians and others that while Israel is a nuclear power so is the FSU. Russian oil production has recovered from its post peak collapse and is now a powerhouse oil producer. Putin's Russia is a resurgent world power.
The Chinese are doing as many deals with the Saudis and others as possible to ensure oil for their overheated economy. They represent the other long term strategic competitor to US hegemony and are already the second largest importer of oil in the world. The US is already shaping up to them over Taiwan and the Middle East.
If there's to be a third world war it will probably be ignited in a general conflagration in the Middle East, possibly deliberately triggered by the Neocons in order to foment the 'clash of civilisations' with Islam they have been calling for and to mobilize the US populace to support a draft and wage total war on all its energy competitors.
As we enter Hubbert's depletion curve we enter a brave new world where growth economies and consumerism give way to energy wars that will apparently not end in our lifetime, unless of course they result in a nuclear apocalypse.
"Change - above all violent change - is the essence of human history" ~Michael Ledeen
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:04 am Post subject: Re: Post Peak WW3 USA vs China?
larrydallas wrote:
Russia has already sold China the SN-22 "Sunburn" ICBM which flies at mach 2 and is unstoppable. China could very well set up a defense system with these missiles in host nations while retaining control of firing them.
Quite right, it's supersonic as well as nuclear-capable. However, it's not an ICBM, but rather a cruise missile, which means it has tremendous tactical, in addition to strategic, utility (think mobile land launch, sea-borne, air-borne, etc).
Where would the battlegrounds be? The Middle East and Caspian Sea? Perhaps the gas fields of the Indian sub-continent? More strategic conflicts would presumably be over Pacific islands? I'd put money on America, unless it isn't angry (in which case, I don't think the American people have the stomach to get through such a war. The Chinese certainly do- they've lasted with decades of a retarded economic system.) _________________ There'll be war, there'll be peace
But one day all things shall cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
I'd put my money on China. The "sunburn" missile has nuke capabilities but it does not need to to have a nuclear warhead since the newer model flies at mach 2.9. The missile weighs about 5500 pounds. The kinetic energy it has at that speed is enough to destory the target with a conventional explosive. In fact, it does not even need an explosive. They could just have a ballast of inert material for a warhead and still it would destory whatever it hit.
The US navy would be helpless if all out war broke out. Aircraft carriers would be picked off by Chinese submarines that fire this thing.
Once we lost like 2 aircraft carriers I'm sure the morale at home would be shattered and the public would be chopping the heads of politicans off for squandering billions of dollars on defense for 50 years and having it all come to one peice of military hardware undo it.
The Chinese would probably do an invasion on mainland America a few years after the worst fighting was over. I'm sure they are not stupid enough to leave their enemy free to develop a weapon which can strike back with more of a leathal force.
Russia may very well back China since they are still allied in their influence in the Eastern Hemisphere. I don't think the Russians have forgotten their humiliation in 1991 when store shelves were empty and they did not have a pot to urinate in.
As for the nuclear war, I don't think it will happend. The mutually assured destruction paradigm still holds true today. I doubt the Chinese will do like the Japanese did to them at Naking in WW2 with a US invasion but life will ceartainly be different for everyone.
That of course is a worst case scenario.
Where would the battlegrounds be? The Middle East and Caspian Sea? Perhaps the gas fields of the Indian sub-continent? More strategic conflicts would presumably be over Pacific islands? I'd put money on America, unless it isn't angry (in which case, I don't think the American people have the stomach to get through such a war. The Chinese certainly do- they've lasted with decades of a retarded economic system.)
I seem to recall that there is oil in the South China sea. If fact, didn't Resource Wars discuss that very area as a flashpoint?
I think the Chinese are more clever though. All they have to do is to help the Middle East radicals that oppose America, and they can get what they want at a low cost. Arabs and Americans die, while China picks up the victory.
The Chinese would probably do an invasion on mainland America a few years after the worst fighting was over. I'm sure they are not stupid enough to leave their enemy free to develop a weapon which can strike back with more of a leathal force.
I wouldn't think this would happen. Getting enough troops over here would be difficult - landing on the West Coast would be a huge challenge. Marching north from Panama wouldn't be much easier. And one must ask what they would gain by such a move? We've already shipped a lot of factories over there...
And there is the nuclear factor. On their side, a single 10 Megaton device released 50 miles above Kansas would generate an EMP pulse that would destroy most computers and electronic devices in the mainland U.S. On the other hand, we have a few such devices that would serve for a counterstrike.
I'd expect a longterm stalemate, with the U.S. withdrawing inside its borders and China taking on the role of sole superpower - until Peak Oil hits and shuffles the deck again.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 6:14 pm Post subject:
There is now way , in this world or the next, that there will be a substantial confilict between the US and China. There is seriously too much to lose on both sides to even contemplate this. The US has enough nuclear warheads to clear the world several times over and the Chinese know this , with or without the backing of Russia.
The two sides will be forced to thrash out a comprimise on resources, as both sides will realise the futility of nuking each other over scraps of oil which might keep them going for a few years and then it would be back to square one.
in reality China is going to be screwed pretty soon after peak oil.This is because there food supply is heavily dependant on net exporters (of which the US is one of a few), and there armies will starve to death before they have a chance of getting anywhere near the US!
Besides if the US goes down where the hell am i gonna get my supply of reces cups (those lovely peanut butter Hershy chocolate things -- blumming gorgeous!!). They have only just arrived in the UK! _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
There is now way , in this world or the next, that there will be a substantial confilict between the US and China. There is seriously too much to lose on both sides to even contemplate this.
I agree with that. There are simply too many economic ties for an actual military war to break out. Corporate America would kick the president's butt out the door if he went to war with China. The China factories are dependant upon the USA buying all the junk they produce and export. China also owns so much US Gov't debt that they would essentially be throwing away hundreds of billions of dollars.
Permanently_Baffled wrote:
in reality China is going to be screwed pretty soon after peak oil.This is because there food supply is heavily dependant on net exporters (of which the US is one of a few), and there armies will starve to death before they have a chance of getting anywhere near the US!
That was a worst case scenario.
As for the US debt China has bought; it is all based on cheap oil. The low oil prices have made it possible for the US to produce the most and keep the dollar worth enough to where foreign nations want to buy debt. If they oil surges to say $150 a barrel I doubt the dollar would be worth enough to justify the purchase of the debt. The existing ownership of debt may not be that attractive either.
Where the trade is concerned at this point China needs to trade with the US more than the US needs to trade with China. If all trade ceased overnight Americans would still be able to get products but would just have to pay much more for them. But the Chinese would face not being able to buy basic needs like food because they would have no income. The Chinese are in this position because they are in the early stages of industrialization.
I think once they go all out industrial and make it possible for the worker in the factory to buy the product he or she is producing they will be less needy for trade with the US. It will be sort of like A Chinese Henry Ford that will do this for them. With the industrialization ox and plow will be replaced by tractors and tillers that run on diesel. They should be able to self sustain in 10 years or 20 at the most. The US went from dirt road in the 1910's to superhighways in the 50's. That was without following anyone who had done it before. With a model to copy the Chinese will likely cut that time in half.
I don't think the trade issue will be able to hold them hostage much longer.
As for the US debt China has bought; it is all based on cheap oil. The low oil prices have made it possible for the US to produce the most and keep the dollar worth enough to where foreign nations want to buy debt. If they oil surges to say $150 a barrel I doubt the dollar would be worth enough to justify the purchase of the debt. The existing ownership of debt may not be that attractive either.
The China currency is linked to the dollar. Whatever happens to the dollar keeps the debt value the same to China. The link between China and USA currency is key to China's export boom and economy. They do not want the dollar to devalue compared to their currency. The USA actually wants to devalue their currency to China. It would be the proper thing to happen based on the China trade deficit. China is not floating their currency properly. They buy US debt to artificially keep the dollar strong and US interest rates low.
larrydallas wrote:
I don't think the trade issue will be able to hold them hostage much longer.
The trade issue is growing stronger, not weaker. Peak Oil comes along and might reverse that. But that essentially takes the checker board and tosses all the pieces in the air to see where they land. No real way to know how all the different scenarios play out. Both countries are facing a hard economic reality check.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:51 pm Post subject:
Jay's posting that begins "The China currency is currently linked to the dollar" is right on target. Square on, bullseye.
War with China is unlikely. I was discussing this with a couple of colleagues a few years ago, and we ran through a bunch of scenarios.
Assume a China-Russia nuclear defense pact. This deters the US from launching; and our second-strike capability deters China from launching. Mutual deterrence is in place and will hold up as long as neither side gets an actively suicidal leadership that includes enough participants up & down its chain of command to do something insane. If you see a true cult of martyrdom developing on either side, that's a warning sign, but the probability of that is low to zero.
China can't invade the US. They don't have sufficient naval capability, but even if they did, the supply lines would be impossible to sustain for the duration of the voyage, much less long enough to keep an invasion force fed & fueled. We would see them coming from the moment they left home port (go look up www.nro.gov). We can read the time of day on their wristwatches, from space. They would not get far enough to become a viable threat.
What China can and in my opinoin will do, is use its economic capabilities to develop alliances around the world that put the West (including Aus and NZ) at a disadvantage. As per the item about getting cozy with the Saudis and taking first place in the gas line (or the oil queue if you prefer).
China's biggest vulnerability is the population/food/disease equation. The world's next mega-death flu pandemic is likely to originate there and have a greater impact there than elsewhere.
As far as political moves on the world stage are concerned, count on each player making subtle moves to create advantages for itself and disadvantages for others. "Same as it ever was."
in reality China is going to be screwed pretty soon after peak oil. This is because there food supply is heavily dependant on net exporters (of which the US is one of a few), and there armies will starve to death before they have a chance of getting anywhere near the US! Besides if the US goes down where the hell am i gonna get my supply of reeces cups (those lovely peanut butter Hershy chocolate things -- blumming gorgeous!!). They have only just arrived in the UK!
THIS is exactly the problem. I really doubt powers like China and Russia are going to sit idly by the side, watching the US suck up the oil and watch their people starve.
WHAT happened when the Japanese wanted oil in 1940 and the US said no? Yeah, damn straight.
People can do crazy things when desperate.
The pressure rising over Taiwan isn't helping the situation between China and America either.
And, if the war starts, Europe will NOT be able to lean back and watch, they would probably have to join the fray (the UK help the US). That's what's called a world war.
But it's not likely that either power would try an invasion of each other. The battle ground will probably be the middle east, and later on perhaps spread out.
As for the dollar. The dollar is falling now, and something is up at the Federal Reserve. Countries could begin looking at the Euro, something the US will fight to prevent (we have already seen it).
Furthermore, the US is bringing home 60-70 000 troops. China is increasing weapon dealings with the Russians.
Israel is threatening Iran over their nuclear plant. Now, Israel could probably take out Iran, but if Russia runs to its protege Israel would be obliderated, unless of course the US runs to its side. And there's another opening scenario.
If it were just these arguments between the nations, it probably wouldn't be much to worry about (buisiness as usual), but in light of peak oil I think it may come to a whole different level.
As for the 'Clash of Civilizations' argument, I think it simplifies the matter too much. Some may want it, but the most pressing argument is probably the looming energy and dollar crisises.
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 35 Location: West coast, US
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2004 12:26 am Post subject:
I don't think a war between US and China is very likely. Almost all senior Chinese government and military officials have family members who immigrated to US. I don't think they are going to lauch nuclear missiles to their own kids. The direct goal of Chinese military is reunification of mainland and Taiwan, which is a very trivial thing when peak oil hits. Taiwan is just a tiny island that 80% of its economy depends on international trade, especially trade with the mainland; it just has no chance to survive by itself. As far as I know, China has no preparation at all for peak oil. It looks to me that the biggest goal of the government is GDP growth, and it thinks that private ownership of big horse power cars is its most important thing to do.
I have to say that Chinese government officials are truly criminals to Chinese people. Day after day the only thing they concern is waste China's precious energy and raw materials to produce goods for US in exchange for some digits in the US banks. As China rapidly depleting its resourse, how China is supposed to support its 1.3 billion people? The arable land per capital of China is less than 1/3 of the world average, and last year alone 5% of it was lost to real estate development and soil erosion. I have relatives in China who are farmers, and their farm is literally smaller than my garden in US. Also China uses twice as much chemical fertilizer as the world average. If US, who has only 1/4 of China's population and far more arable land, will be facing mass starvation and dieoff, what the situation will be in China? There is no way that China can support as many people as US can, but there are one billion more people there. The new Chinese prime minister is a geologist himself, and I can't believe he is so ignorant on peak oil.
I really don't think there will be a dieoff in US. The way of living in US is simply too wasteful and people can easily survive with a fraction of the material that US consumes. People here don't realize how rich US is in natural resourses. My parents visited us when I was living in Atlanta, and I often drove them around in Georgia and Florida. They often dropped their jaws when they saw miles after miles of forest without seeing anybody. I just can't believe people here are talking about stocking up food.
While I will readily agree that China and the US are not likely to go to a full scale war in the present trade/economic conditions, should things change w/ Peak Oil then look out. China's lack of long term agricultural stability is actualy a MAJOR fasctor in my beleif they WILL go to WAR. When groups outstrip an areas recource, they either die off, or invade some other area.
In that case China has Cambodia, laos, Malaysia as weaker potential targets. (vietnam is a no no.)
Quote:
really don't think there will be a dieoff in US. The way of living in US is simply too wasteful and people can easily survive with a fraction of the material that US consumes. People here don't realize how rich US is in natural resourses. My parents visited us when I was living in Atlanta, and I often drove them around in Georgia and Florida. They often dropped their jaws when they saw miles after miles of forest without seeing anybody. I just can't believe people here are talking about stocking up food.
Heck Yah Neo! Just thinking about the natural beuty and lovelyness of "Gods Country" that is all over the States really brings things into perspective.
So many people take it for granted, just visit the Middle East, heck even Sicily, or greece, ans see th alck of forests/wildlife etc. America is a rich continent, a good "fall back" position for humanity.
On China "Invading the US:" That I see as a very foolish move indeed.
On a whole the american citizenry is well armed, and constitute a potential "G" force that would make a headache for any occupying force.
OTOH: The US would not want to invade China either, she is much better organized than in WWII, and her arms factories (norinco) are pretty much top notch in conventional terms ("Seals" use thier Ak's for a good reason), and her unconventionals "High tech" etc. are in the proccess of slowly OVERTAKING the American shcool (where many of the chiniese trained).
Making all those CPU's, radios/scanners,Tv's/Monitors, launching austronauts/sattilites etc. has made the "people of Han" a major power. The computer you type with was mostly "made in China"...they don't produce just "junk" anymore.
Now, the consensus is that Peak Oil will hurt China more than America. I agree.
But that will give her a bigger reason to do something about it BEFORE it's too late. (once things start to get bad enough that she has to pay attention to the issue)
That could be a military option, a "renewables" option, or both. _________________ With Love to all, and Malice to none.
"A people is conquered not when they lose a war, but when they adopt the song and customs of the enemy"
-Chacham S
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2004 3:52 am Post subject:
DefiledEngine wrote:
in reality China is going to be screwed pretty soon after peak oil.This is because there food supply is heavily dependant on net exporters (of which the US is one of a few), and there armies will starve to death before they have a chance of getting anywhere near the US!
THIS is exactly the problem. I really doubt powers like China and Russia are going to sit idly by the side, watching the US suck up the oil and watch their people starve.
WHAT happened when the Japanese wanted oil in 1940 and the US said no? Yeah, damn straight.
And, if the war starts, Europe will NOT be able to lean back and watch, they would probably have to join the fray (the UK help the US). That's what's called a world war.
1) Your first point is actually poses a catch 22, if Russia and China don't allow America the Oil, who feeds them? As i understand it both of these countries rely on net food exporters. So war would be pointless!
2) Japan example not valid, US has nukes, even the Japanaese caved in pretty quick after 2 atomic bombs went off. They know this.
3) Europe not be able to stand by? I disagree. There would a revolution in the UK if another war allied with the US was started, the Iraq war was EXTREMELY unpopular. Have a nice day :D _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
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