How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Fri May 06, 2005 12:40 pm Post subject: The Long Emergency
It is with great anticipation that I have been looking forward to read "The Long Emergency". I'm not very far into it, only chapter 3, but I'm pleased to see that so far it is not just a rehash of his previous writings. I agree that he has a very engaging style and a way of stating the situation clearly.
Most surprising to me is the photo on the back cover of the dust jacket! I have not seen any pictures of Kunstler looking like this before, like Anton La Vay. Peak Oil is spooky enough without scaring the kids like this. Must have been a bet.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2663 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Fri May 06, 2005 4:37 pm Post subject:
I finished it earlier this week and have since moved on to heinberg's "power down". The long emergency was the first PO book I've read and some of it was quite informative, I had never thought about running out of natural gas and had no idea that there was such a problem restarting if there was a temporary shortage.
I found the War support a little strange but I'm convinced that the official explanation on why it's happening isn't the truth so maybe he's right. It wasn't of real intrest to me anyways.
The points about disease and climate change I already knew and I found I wasn't that interested in them.
The final section on what things could be like, and how the various parts of the us will end up was shocking until I found out that I might have to deal with pirates, at that point I took all of his predictions for the mexican invasion, the fundamentalist cults, and the empty states with a grain of salt.
Overall not bad, definitely dark but that comes with the subject, I still think he is too negative though. My main issue with that book is it really didn't give me the info I was looking for. It tells me that I'm screwed but I knew that before buying the book, I was looking for some hints on how to get along a little better after things get bad and this board is infinitely more valuable for that. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
I just finished the book and have to say that I was not that impressed. Kunstler can write, so it was a great read, but the conclusions were sometimes good: We're all going back to farming and small town life, and sometimes a bit over the top: Nascar nation will go ballistic. It was good to read this and talk to some other peak freaks, because I think I have decided to take the whole thing with a grain of salt. None of the big peak oil books tell you much on what to do about peak oil. Heinberg,
Savinar, and Kunstler just tell you that it's going to get bad, but don't tell you what to do. At this point they are just ranting to the choir. We need someone to lead us out of this wilderness of gloom and doom into some kind of a future.
None of the big peak oil books tell you much on what to do about peak oil. Heinberg, Savinar, and Kunstler just tell you that it's going to get bad, but don't tell you what to do. At this point they are just ranting to the choir. We need someone to lead us out of this wilderness of gloom and doom into some kind of a future.
The entire idea behind Heinberg's book Powerdown is a proposal to come out of oil depletion without entering the stone age. The Post-Carbon Institute is influenced by Heinberg's suggestions.
The final section on what things could be like, and how the various parts of the us will end up was shocking until I found out that I might have to deal with pirates, at that point I took all of his predictions for the mexican invasion, the fundamentalist cults, and the empty states with a grain of salt.
Um, you do realize that piracy is already a huge problem in parts of Southeast Asia, and that it's getting worse. I wouldn't be surprised to see Asian pirates eventually expand their range to cover the whole of the Pacific. After all, Peak Oil will bankrupt the US Government - it's not like we're going to be able to afford to police the oceans anymore, as we have for the past 60 years and as the English and other major European powers had for a hundred plus years before that.
We're going to have enough trouble keeping gangs of criminals from operating on land. It's has the potential to be a return to a pre-Civil War world, only with about 10 times the population and some very dangerous technology floating around.
I have to say that Kunstler's book is an excellent way to get the message of peak oil out there. What peak oil needs is a spokesman like him who can really write. I guess that I have moved beyond the problem to working on the solution. I know that the odds are stacked against us, but I feel that there are things we can do. Moving into low energy consumption lifestyles can help us to be ready for peak oil. I guess I am waiting for a book that talks about the actual practical nuts and bolts things we can do to prepare for this problem. Kunstler's book was an excellent wake up call.
I finally finished it. I dig it. But I like Kunstler's writing for the most part.
As per the Iraqui thing, it didn't bother me so much. I did get the vibe that he was saying 'this is what we are doin', moreso than 'this is what we should be doing.'
The disease and famine parts seem a little over the top, but they are certainly possible problems. The same with the pirates. I guess in the spirit of trying to envision what might happen, they are all possibilities.
Overall, a fun book. Depressing as all hell. but fun. To lighten things up, I think I'll read High Noon for Nat Gas.
Edit to add: I think expecting these authors to tell us what to do is a bit much. How does anyone know how to handle this? He offers a few suggestions, but doesn't lay out a survival plan by any means.
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Wed May 18, 2005 10:18 am Post subject:
eastbay, why don't you write Kunstler with your thoughts and see what he says? Might be interesting to see. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4053 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Wed May 18, 2005 10:36 am Post subject:
WhiteCrab,
I'm sure others are thinking the same thing. He briefly explains his support for the war in his book in much the same manner as others who favored removal of Saddam by military force and supported the Iraq invasion and the ongoing military occupation.
It's the same arguments we've all heard a thousand times and there's no need for me to hear it once more.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2005 4:35 pm Post subject: Kunstler
Kunstler IS a smartass, I've corresponded with him.
I love everything the guy writes and I admire both his energy (do some digging around on the peak oil problem on the net and you'll find he's writing for all kinds of magazines and doing all kinds of interviews).
I admire that he, unlike many people who say they care about the environment, rides a bicycle most of the time, has had his mini-truck for years and years and barely drives it, only when needed. I believe he takes the train etc. whenever possible to go to lectures etc. He walks the walk.
But, on his pro-war stance, he's NOT being a smartass, he believes that the "Islamo-fascists" really want to slaughter us all. He believes the war was The Right Thing To Do (tm) and all that. He'd dead serious on all that.
Maybe the alternative, ending unreasonable support for Israel, is too unthinkable.
I'd give it 4/5. 5/5 for problem domain, 3/5 for solution domain.
Out of all of the books I've read so far on Peak Oil I think Kunstler has provided the best introduction to the problem domain of the lot. The scope covers everything, including Peak Oil/Gas, Global Warming, Overpopulation, and how individuals lead their lives. Thus he makes it very easy for the layperson to "connect the dots" and understand how their own lives would be affected.
He talks about entropy a lot throughout the book, although he doesn't really spell out what the word "entropy" actually represents (he refers to "high/low entropy" which would be in terms of energy states (order/chaos), but also refers to "the process of entropy" being the force of decay that drives systems from order to chaos; where an energy input was necessary to put the system into the ordered state and keep it there). You cannae cheat the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, Captain!
Although I disagree with his non-conspiratol views, the fact he believes there are "no conspiracies" makes this a good book for those who believe what the media are telling us vis-a-vis Geopolitics. Which is probably most people. I lost count of the number of times the name "Hitler" appeared so I get the feeling that he's Jewish.
I think he's overly pessimistic about alternatives. Perhaps he feels this is necessary to undo any "silver bullet / magic elixir" thinking the reader may conjure. Quite rightly he points out that currently the alternatives require fossil fuel inputs, but I believe that the various technologies will eventually support one another, albeit on a smaller scale, and probably with poorer reliability.
Reading between the lines, I think he believes that since the alternatives cannot be enjoyed by all, they cannot be egalitarian, and are thus not worth persuing. The only "solution for all" being small agricultural communities, which appears to be the future he longs for, with little or no central Government. I personally believe there will be enough alternatives to be used predominantly for infrastructure, and any leftovers rationed.
Overall it's a good read, Kunstler is an entertaining writer, and I'd recommend it as an introductory book. What becomes clear from his writing is that his vocabulary and the amount of reading he has done is immense. He mentioned "shitstorm" but not "Fark" (as in "The End of Suburbia"). I've visited dictionary.com a number of times whilst reading this, in between feeling somewhat depressed occasionally as well as feeling the urge to burn down supermarkets _________________ The Olduvai Theory is thinkable http://www.dieoff.com/page224.pdf
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://www.dieoff.org/page145.htm
Joined: Sep 30, 2004 Posts: 975 Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl
Got it today and read it in one session. I reckon it's a must intro to PO.
Yes, there are daffy bits: in a low-energy future I find it hard to believe Asian pirates will make it all the way over the Pacific. More believeable is his warnings about the Mexican border.
V good and readable, with some of Kunstler's trademark humour. Such as the mention of his neighbour with an antiwar poster and two SUVs. Not quite getting the bigger picture, Kunstler feels
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 569 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:04 am Post subject: Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl
I picked up a copy of Kunstler's book at the local Border's last week. They had it in the "new nonfiction section" at the front of the store...must be a big seller now that everyone is freaking out about the gas/oil thing due to Kantrina.
As with most books of this type, I think you have to take it with a grain of salt, but he made some very valid points about what's to come with the coming energy shock, especially regarding his comments concerning shortages of NG which I feel is the big bugaboo that's going to clobber us long before the oil shortages kick in full force...it certainly has me considering installing that wood stove sooner rather than later!
As for his musings concering the war in Iraq, I think he's just being on-the-point about it...I mean, it's rather obvious even to the casual observer that we're there for the oil as opposed to the so-called "War on Terror"...even if it wasn't for 9-11, we were destined to invade the Middle East sooner or later, and as much as I detest the idea, we're in for the long haul in that part of the world.
The thing that bothered me the most about this book was his unrelenting diatribe against the American way of living...it's one thing to point out our unstainable way of living, but I don't think he fully understands the workings of free-market economics, and how self-correcting it is...I mean, if and when the Second Great Depression hits (my term), there will be so much demand destruction that P.O. will actually be more like a broad plateau that could stretch out for decades before supplies get tight enough to actually bring down all of Western civilization, unlike which he insinuates throughout his book. Also, I don't think Kunstler is aware of the potential for greatly increased energy efficiencies once oil gets expensive enough...such as cars getting 80-100 mpg, people not living so far from their jobs, vastly increased support for mass transit and so on that will made a huge difference in how much energy we really need to consume to maintain a reasonable standard of living.
But overall, I thought it was a good read...I burned through it in less than a day...lol, and I do hope that it will impress upon an unwary public that we really do have some huge challenges facing us as a nation and the world. But a little bit of optimism does go a long ways even in the face of what's coming.
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