Was 1999 the peak?

Stoic · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 25

From what I have read, the best price of oil for all time (after inflation) was in 1999, and it has been increasing from this ever since. This leads me to believe that production has peaked, but I am aware that there are other factors like increasing demand in China. Does the reserve data provide any information that can clear this up for me?

kambei · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 31 Location: UK

No, oil production in subequent years has been higher.

Very cool forum destroying graph from ASPO

The year of lowest price doesn't mean the peak year at all.
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Stoic · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 25

Is this from ASPO?

savethehumans · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 20, 2004 Posts: 1541

1999 has started to be seen as (or as about) the peak year for oil/gas in the North Sea. That is significant; that is NOT worldwide peak.

Today, however, whether we are past peak, at peak, or near peak is a fairly moot point. This is the peak period; only when declines in production have been constant or notable for YEARS will an actual year of Oil Peak be pronounced. Almost irrelevantly. Because all the consequences of a world with increased demand/declining supply have begun already. THAT is the important point. THAT is what we have to focus on and deal with.

The late Pope John Paul II encouraged Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa to live as if they were free; the actual freedom came later. I'm no pope, but anyone aware of PO could give similar advice: live as if PO has occurred and depletion is happening. It's close enough to both situations (if they haven't occurred already); one would be wise to live Post Peak-like, simply to get an early start on being adjusted to such a life.

pamur · Coal Joined: Mar 07, 2004 Posts: 8 Location: seattle

thegrq · Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject:

Oil prices are affected by so many things. Like the price of a barrel on the futures market for example, which if it is higher than the current price, will encourage people to save their oil until it reaches that price...this would increase the price of oil and not have much to do with peak oil. Also, pure speculation can increase the price of oil, and of course terrorists. Other things that can increase the price of oil are the removal of some subsidies, which I don't think they've done this in North America but I know the IEA urged the removal of subsidies and I think China has done this to some extent.

So, the price of oil depends on many things. Large spikes would probably be associated with peak oil and smaller spikes would be associated with what I wrote above.