For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: Feb 01, 2005 Posts: 162 Location: Devon, UK
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 10:03 am Post subject: Recoverable Oil Reserves
Looking at oil price news on the BBC, as it seems the "Super Spike" is making more mainstream news now.
I came across this comment on this message board.
Quote:
As an Engineer in the oil industry I am appalled at the current state of affairs. I am not sure if the world is aware that for an oil company to invest say $300 million in a new oil platform that produces 100,000 barrels of oil a day, they can recover their costs in a few months oil production! Just work the math out. The platform continues to produce for another 25 years after that (all profit). The oil companies have milked the world for years. Shell made billions in only the last three months! Why do the governments not force the oil companies to invest more in oilfield development and secure more jobs, more oil and less world oil worries? After the oil companies say an oil field is depleted, it still contains 70% of its original oil reserves. There is no way oil will ever run out in the next two generations anyway. The world needs to reign in the oil companies.
Mark, London, UK
70% of its original reserves still in the field after its depleted?
Could any experts explain / debunk this one? _________________ We have no Plan B. Haven't we?Discuss!
70% of its original reserves still in the field after its depleted?
Could any experts explain / debunk this one?
This is essentially correct.
The remaining oil is unrecoverable due to the geology of the field. 70% is probably a little high for the average well though.
What your quote misses however is that most of the remaining oil is impossible to extract with current technology. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Apr 01, 2005 Posts: 18 Location: Deutschland HE
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 10:17 am Post subject:
I think you can only pump 50% out of an oil field, after that, it's empty for the technics today, so at 25% its the half and there is depletion mid point.
This sentence give to the reader the fake impression that those 70% are easily recoverable. Don't forget that the question you must never forget is not how much oil is underground, but how much barrels will we be able to extract each day... This is the reason of peak oil.
You can tell that engineer that he will be a billionaire if he figures out how to pump oil out of those fields.
Yes, 50-70% of oil in a given field is not recoverable.
Also, note that if you can recover it- let's say a big break through happened. This is not going to be same quality oil. Quality should deteriate in most cases to heavy sour crude.
I guess you can use the in-situ or other technics they applied to extract out tar sand oil to old oil fields that have been depleted if you can justify the cost. Definitely won't be able to justify energy return.
I know the engineer is wrong about the level of profit in the oil
industry, not because I know the actual amounts but because if
his figures were true, noone would be in farming, manufacturing,
retailing, finance etc etc etc.
The level of profit he is implying is many, many, many times
anything else.
Trust me on this -- you can't invest $300M, have it returned
to you in a few months and then get $5M per day for years thereafter.
what he said is correct in regards to today's prices for yesterday's oil platforms. building oil platforms in the North Sea back in 1980's probably costs around a few hundred million and using today's $50+ per barrel, the companies are making a lot of money.
of course, the economics back then are a lot different than today.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 9:20 am Post subject: Re: Recoverable Oil Reserves
GD wrote:
Looking at oil price news on the BBC, as it seems the "Super Spike" is making more mainstream news now.
I came across this comment on this message board.
Quote:
As an Engineer in the oil industry I am appalled at the current state of affairs. I am not sure if the world is aware that for an oil company to invest say $300 million in a new oil platform that produces 100,000 barrels of oil a day, they can recover their costs in a few months oil production! Just work the math out. The platform continues to produce for another 25 years after that (all profit). The oil companies have milked the world for years. Shell made billions in only the last three months! Why do the governments not force the oil companies to invest more in oilfield development and secure more jobs, more oil and less world oil worries? After the oil companies say an oil field is depleted, it still contains 70% of its original oil reserves. There is no way oil will ever run out in the next two generations anyway. The world needs to reign in the oil companies.
Mark, London, UK
70% of its original reserves still in the field after its depleted?
Could any experts explain / debunk this one?
Depends what they are talking about.
Oil initally in place (OIIP) is a huge number, and only a percentage can be extracted with current technology. The world has some 6 or 7 trillion barrels of conventional oil, however only a percentage can be recovered. The average cut of a field is about 35% nowadays, meaning that if a field had 100 billion barrels, only 35 billion barrels could be produced. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Yeah, so if some guy wants to say there is lots of oil in the ground, he is absolutely correct. Enough oil in the ground to last us another few decades at least before PO, but we cannot get it.
It is not even close to getting it. Meaning, not many engineers working to get all the oil out. They are trying to get a higher percentage, but the advancement is very slow and not like Moore's law. Also, advancements are not distributed widely.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 11:32 am Post subject:
nth wrote:
Yeah, so if some guy wants to say there is lots of oil in the ground, he is absolutely correct. Enough oil in the ground to last us another few decades at least before PO, but we cannot get it.
It is not even close to getting it. Meaning, not many engineers working to get all the oil out. They are trying to get a higher percentage, but the advancement is very slow and not like Moore's law. Also, advancements are not distributed widely.
Yes, it depends heavily on each field's unique geology. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Anyone ever think about digging an oil pit?
Meaning instead of trying to pump it out, to just dig a pit and to scoop it up? this way, we can get most of the oil.
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