The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1502

My tire supplier said all his stuff is going up another 12% on July 1st. Rubber goods use a lot of petrochemicals, but I have no way to know if they have a lag time in pricing, or are ahead of the curve. My guess is, they have held off increases to keep from killing sales, which seems to be the case in a lot of retail.
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Local fix-it guy..

mobil1

MikeInHouston · Coal Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 16

I agree with Elijah. Past global consumption of oil does not look like all the graphs of Hubbert Curve. From 1979 to 1983 oil consumption declined 13%. An increase in price will make demand go down. In fact consumption has decreased slightly since 2005.
2008 number are not in yet but I think it will be another slight decrease.

The theory of Peak Oil, from Hubbert's perspective only looks at the facts below ground. Supply and Demand will have an impact on the final results.

We are not going to just run out of oil, just cheap oil. There will still be oil being produced 100 years from now.

We should be able to streach thinks out for quite some time, people will starve, financial markets will collapse ect. ect.

Death is usually not sudden and neat.

MrBill · Expert Joined: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 5362 Location: Eurasia

"With the gas prices, it eats into what I might spend on concessions because at that point then I might as well just eat at home, save my funds and drink in a bar after the game instead of enjoying $8 beers,"

criticalmass

You may all find this an interesting sidenote:

While writing an econometrics paper in college (circa 2003) I wrote a statistical regression. ~It was long and sweet~ The end result was a predictor: that entire US economic collapse would happen when we paid equivalent to $7.20 at the pump for gasoline. My father even laughed after he got to see it, stating "not in my lifetime."

Obviously there is a lot more that goes into that regression like % spent on energy per capita, inflation, $BBL and the correlation between them all, and so on: but I think I was a bit off because economic collapse seems to be happening much quicker.

I should have recieved an "F" Smile

At the time, I knew nothing of Peak Oil Theory. Having studied it for a few years now, I'm finding that it holds more and more water.
I'd also like to point out that the previous couple of posts cite US efficiency gains and changes in deand. This is a GLOBAL economy. I had to drill that into my head over the last few years because schools do not preach it in the US.

mystiek

You needed to add all of the above as an option. I guess travel would be our first choice, but I'm so tied down with a call schedule and my practice that we don't get alot of chances to wander out into the big world. I view investments as purchasing items that aren't really considered toys-like materials to make a rain water collection system, etc.

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3561

I live in a walkable neighborhood.
While going for a stroll on the main road that has most of the shopping there was a sign advertising retail space for lease:

"60 days free rent"

I didn't read the fine print so who knows how many years the lease would have to be signed for but what difference does it make?
Whoever is brave enough or foolish would only last 1 year anyways in today's economy.
I think some of these retail spaces will be converted to residential as American's disposable income drops.

Napoleon Bonaparte once said: "England is a nation of shopkeepers."
I guess he had never been to the USA. Razz

countrymomma · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 07, 2008 Posts: 38 Location: Midwest

MrBill · Expert Joined: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 5362 Location: Eurasia

Low barriers to Entry and EXIT, but it sounds like a lot of those empty malls and parking lots are ripe for new brown field redevelopment. No asbestos, no toxics, no underground contaminents to clean-up. Just raze the place! Thanks for the post! ; - ))
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The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.

TheDude

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1502

The Louisville radio news says Kentucky is taking another look at their highway projects for the coming year. Construction costs have gone up 50% since the projects were planned, forcing the state to consider narrower shoulders, patching and repairing instead of rebuilding, and other cost cutting.

Our roads are going to suffer rather quickly, it seems.
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Local fix-it guy..

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3561

criticalmass

Dude. I have seen that "doozy." That's what I call a "wall." It's the point when things seem imeasurable on a chart.
We hit it pretty fast, but that's what the market demanded. The tricky part is inferring our position in the global picture with so little information available to the US public.

Also, Dude, "Chinamen" is not the preferred nomenclature Smile

criticalmass

Dude. I have seen that "doozy." That's what I call a "wall." It's the point when things seem imeasurable on a chart.
We hit it pretty fast, but that's what the market demanded. The tricky part is inferring our position in the global picture with so little information available to the US public.

Also, Dude, "Chinamen" is not the preferred nomenclature Smile

yesplease · Fission Joined: Oct 03, 2006 Posts: 2270