I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 488 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
Chron.com wrote:
An oil field being developed by ConocoPhillips and OAO Lukoil will reach peak production in 2009 after tests of production facilities started this year.
The Yuzhno-Khylchuyu field in northern Russia should reach an output of 160,000 barrels of oil a day and the peak should last for three years, Rob Smith, a ConocoPhillips secondee to joint venture Naryanmarneftegas, said today at the site
It really amazes me that there are so many people out there that deny peak oil and consider it tinfoil hat fodder when it happens all the time and gets posted on sites like Chron.com. _________________ My new Peak Oil T-Shirt Design
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
hold on, you are talking about two different things. Peak oil refers to reaching maximum rate of total oil production worldwide. Individual fields peak all the time and have been peaking all the time for centuries. Even as worldwide oil production was growing there were thousands of fields that had already peaked and declined. So it isn't about the fact individual oil fields have limited production but more about in a world where oil discoveries are getting smaller and less frequent can the replacement rate ever again outstrip the offtake rate.
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 488 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
rockdoc123 wrote:
hold on, you are talking about two different things. Peak oil refers to reaching maximum rate of total oil production worldwide. Individual fields peak all the time and have been peaking all the time for centuries. Even as worldwide oil production was growing there were thousands of fields that had already peaked and declined. So it isn't about the fact individual oil fields have limited production but more about in a world where oil discoveries are getting smaller and less frequent can the replacement rate ever again outstrip the offtake rate.
The peaking of individual fields will logically extrapolate to world oil production. This is a demonstration of peak oil production in an individual field. Eventually, if it hasn't already (which I think it has), the production profile formed by all individual fields, combined with discoveries, will reflect world peak oil production.
My point is that individuals fields are the experiments that prove the "theory". _________________ My new Peak Oil T-Shirt Design
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
Chron.com wrote:
An oil field being developed by ConocoPhillips and OAO Lukoil will reach peak production in 2009 after tests of production facilities started this year.
The Yuzhno-Khylchuyu field in northern Russia should reach an output of 160,000 barrels of oil a day and the peak should last for three years, Rob Smith, a ConocoPhillips secondee to joint venture Naryanmarneftegas, said today at the site
It really amazes me that there are so many people out there that deny peak oil and consider it tinfoil hat fodder when it happens all the time and gets posted on sites like Chron.com.
People who.
If there is somebody out there who believes that oil will not peak at some point, then that person is either ignorant of the facts or a believer in an unsupported abiotic theory, or, if neither of the foregoing, in a state of denial.
People who question the date of peak oil, however, should not be called "deniers."
In fact, I'd suggest there is no place in intelligent conversation for the word "denier". It's a sloppy crutch used by those who aren't able or don't care to make their argument.
"If you don't agree with me, you're a denier."
It's not beyond reason that oil could peak in 10 or 20 years.
While it's extremely unlikely, it's unscientific to suggest it's impossible.
Why don't we leave the word "denier" to those who really need it - holocaust profiteers and Global Warming hysterics. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2050 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
Cashmere wrote:
If there is somebody out there who believes that oil will not peak at some point, then that person is either ignorant of the facts or a believer in an unsupported abiotic theory, or, if neither of the foregoing, in a state of denial.
Even the abiotic crowd would be unable to deny a peak, unless oil consumption is running, and always will run, below the rate that oil is being formed.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:53 am Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
It really amazes me that there are so many people out there that deny peak oil and consider it tinfoil hat fodder when it happens all the time and gets posted on sites like Chron.com.
It isn't the concept of peak oil that is tinfoil hat fodder. It's the doomer fantasies that are tinfoil hat fodder.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3618 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:27 am Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
Almost half of the documented megaprojects hit their peak only a year after production begins; 11 for 2008 are listed as peaking in the same year of initial production, including AFK Ph. 1 in KSA, which includes Khursaniyah. How long this peak lasts isn't mentioned, and would depend on the size of the field, its characteristics, how hard it's produced, etc. How skewed depletion has become over time towards quick peaks or flat-out production as a norm would be an interesting study. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: ConocoPhillips, Lukoil field heading for peak output
This won't be popular, but perhaps these individual fields are 'peaking' so quickly these days is because modern technology and equipment has allowed the oil companies to research the fields properly and get all of the available production online extremely quickly.
Individual fields don't need to think about global supply per day vs demand, with oil prices so high and global peak oil seemingly not even an issue I think they just think about 'number of recoverable barrels of oil in the ground and how to get it out as economically as possible'.
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