I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
8/25/2008 4:36:00 PM
ENERGY MATTERS: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- The sharp decline in U.S. oil demand may be even greater than thought, raising the specter that third-quarter demand could slump below the second-quarter level for the first time in 20 years.
Clobbered by the weak economy and surging prices, weak demand in the world's biggest oil consumer is hardly a secret. But signs of a still steeper decline come amid inventory levels that have risen far above expectations.
The combination could strike a heavy blow to crude oil futures prices, now groping for direction after a 21% drop from record highs in early July.
Early data from the Energy Information Administration for the first half of August show oil demand running at 20.2 million barrels a day so far in the month.
Measured against the revised demand for the full month of August 2007, at 21.025 million barrels a day (a five-year low for the month), current demand is off 3.7% or nearly 800,000 barrels a day.
But the EIA projected Aug. 12 in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil demand would average 20.73 million barrels a day this month, a drop of 295,000 barrels a day, or 1.4%, from a year ago.
Even if the apparently inflated August projection - which now looks like a pipe dream - is correct, U.S. demand this month would still lag the year-ago level for the 13th straight month. The 20.73-million-barrel-a-day figure for August, said Tancred Lidderdale, an EIA analyst in charge of the outlook, is based on "historical seasonality in demand for all products," which shows average growth of 468,000 barrels a day in August from July.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: EIA: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
Umm ... this news came out on August 12. Since then, transportation fuel demand (gasoline + diesel) has been picking up briskly. I expect gasoline + distillate demand to soon exceed 2007 levels (barring a hurricane related emergency - which is possible), due to the lower retail price and strong harvest related demand. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1366 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: EIA: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
DantesPeak wrote:
Umm ... this news came out on August 12.
Nope, this is brand-spanking-new. It even mentions last week's report:
Quote:
U.S. crude oil stocks in the week ended Aug. 15 jumped by 9.4 million barrels a day - the biggest weekly rise in seven-and-a-half years. At 305.9 million barrels, crude stocks at mid-month are up 12 million barrels from the end of July. They are already 18.9 million barrels above the level the EIA predicted for the end of August in its Aug. 12 outlook.
DantesPeak wrote:
Since then, transportation fuel demand (gasoline + diesel) has been picking up briskly. I expect gasoline + distillate demand to soon exceed 2007 levels (barring a hurricane related emergency - which is possible), due to the lower retail price and strong harvest related demand.
Not only can you not know that demand has picked up briskly since the article was written - after all, it includes the latest EIA report - it looks like you didn't read the whole article (lots more at the link). Most of the article talks about how the EIA numbers are all likely to be revised downward, and some earllier ones already have. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: EIA: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
OilFinder2 wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Umm ... this news came out on August 12.
Nope, this is brand-spanking-new. It even mentions last week's report:
Quote:
U.S. crude oil stocks in the week ended Aug. 15 jumped by 9.4 million barrels a day - the biggest weekly rise in seven-and-a-half years. At 305.9 million barrels, crude stocks at mid-month are up 12 million barrels from the end of July. They are already 18.9 million barrels above the level the EIA predicted for the end of August in its Aug. 12 outlook.
DantesPeak wrote:
Since then, transportation fuel demand (gasoline + diesel) has been picking up briskly. I expect gasoline + distillate demand to soon exceed 2007 levels (barring a hurricane related emergency - which is possible), due to the lower retail price and strong harvest related demand.
Not only can you not know that demand has picked up briskly since the article was written - after all, it includes the latest EIA report - it looks like you didn't read the whole article (lots more at the link). Most of the article talks about how the EIA numbers are all likely to be revised downward, and some earllier ones already have.
Yes I did read the article, whose main theme was based on the August 12 report, except some erroneous conclusions were added afterward.
Let's also not confuse oil inventory levels with gasoline demand. But if you want to look somewhere at inventories, you will note that gasoline stocks are at very low levels now. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: EIA: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
Oh goody OF2 demand is weak........ Let us not forget that weak demand = weak economy.
-G _________________ I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:49 am Post subject: Re: EIA: US Oil Demand May Be Weaker Than Indicated
Let's assume c. 1,5 annual decline for US consumption: 70/1,5 gives about 47 years for halving time of US consumption - quarter of global consumption - clearly not sustainable rate of decline, gonna get much steeper pretty fast.
Edit: noticed that the article was in fact about 3,7% year to year decline, meaning halving time of about 19 years. Now that rings a much more realistic bell...
...and of course I doubt very much it will take 20 years or halving the consumption before the demand destruction starts to affect some really vital organs of the body social of a modern industrial society, meaning that the collapse of US would take place in much nearer future.
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