For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
JohnDenver wrote:
pup55 wrote:
If you allow none, you do not have a liquid market. You have a market run by the oligopolies that are in this industry, and that works against transparency, fair markets, and everything us capitalists hold near and dear.
"Capitalism" is going to go right out the window. With the kind of price escalation we are currently seeing, there will be wartime-style measures in the near future. You are really naive if you think the right to make a quick buck in the futures market trumps the need to keep the real economy functioning.
Quote:
Thirdly, who's to say the 'speculators" won't just trade in Singapore, rather than the NYMEX?
As long as you're in the U.S., they've still got you by the balls. They'll regulate the terminal you're using, and int'l money transfers. You can try to avoid the int'l banking system and the tax authorities, but it's complicated. You'll also be a criminal.
Of course, you could pick up and move. Get your wife a burqa and go to Dubai. Hope you like sand.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
threadbear wrote:
Inventories were up as reported June 25th.
Yeah.
Quote:
Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.0 million barrels per day, 86 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year
...
At 301.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year
If something is overpriced, supplies go up and demand goes down. There is an overabundance and that's drives down price. Our inventories are low. Imports are down. Granted inventories rebounded a bit from the drop two weeks ago, but they are still low. If anything, oil is underpriced right now.
Quote:
"Capitalism" is going to go right out the window. With the kind of price escalation we are currently seeing, there will be wartime-style measures in the near future. You are really naive if you think the right to make a quick buck in the futures market trumps the need to keep the real economy functioning.
You mean war time measures like invading the middle east? We tried that. You mean rationing? Well, you may be right on that one. Especially if the US tries to drive down the price of oil while China is signaling that it's willing to pay more. Never put it past a politician to respond stupidly. Actually might work well for the Democrats if they can create gas rationing lines by November. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
I wish I could get a fix on inventories. I've read that we're oversupplied, that inventories are high and just the opposite. Where is all the confusion coming from?
Asia Times Online:
Inventories are actually at historically normal levels and 10% higher than five years ago. Furthermore, with oil prices up so much, inventories should have fallen, owing to strong incentives to reduce holdings. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has reported that financial firms are increasingly involved in leasing oil storage capacity
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
threadbear wrote:
with oil prices up so much, inventories should have fallen, owing to strong incentives to reduce holdings.
There's only a strong incentive to reduce holdings if price is high and you think it's going back down. If you think price is going up, up, and away, then the incentive is to hoard as much as you can as fast as you can. The incentive would be even stronger if you didn't have the ability to mitigate your risk through the futures markets by transfering your risk to.....speculators. It comes down to that same question. Would you want to short by selling off you inventory in this market? If so, why? _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
smallpoxgirl wrote:
threadbear wrote:
with oil prices up so much, inventories should have fallen, owing to strong incentives to reduce holdings.
There's only a strong incentive to reduce holdings if price is high and you think it's going back down. If you think price is going up, up, and away, then the incentive is to hoard as much as you can as fast as you can. The incentive would be even stronger if you didn't have the ability to mitigate your risk through the futures markets by transfering your risk to.....speculators. It comes down to that same question. Would you want to short by selling off you inventory in this market? If so, why?
What are the inventories actually doing, is my question. Intuitively, it seems that higher prices should translate to higher inventories due to dropping demand, IF there isn't an actual problem with supply. That's all I'm trying to determine. The quote you attributed to me, is from the article.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
Assuming for the moment that speculators really are pushing the price of oil substantially higher than supply and demand fundamentals, would this not be a good thing from a peak oil perspective? It would mean that demand destruction, conservation, and alternatives would be getting a kick in the pants earlier than anticipated. Thus we would have more time for peak oil mitigation efforts before supply and demand fundamentals really push the price that high. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Does that help? It looks to me like we're barely maintaining our level on stocks. That shouldn't be happening if oil is overpriced, unless people were anticipating price dropping in the near future. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
You should only buy oil if you're gonna take physical delivery of it.I don't see speculators bidding up the price of underwear at my local Wal Mart before i go and buy some.If the market says oil should be $140.00 with only REAL buyers involved,then it should be$140.00.There is no harm in bringing transparency to the market,that's the only way to get the Truth.Don't forget greed people,it's one hell of a motivator. _________________ Gimme some demand destruction.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
DantesPeak wrote:
However I want to be the first to say now that, in regards to reducing position limits on US oil futures markets, the result will be counter productive. In other words, the price of oil will rise as positions are closed out.
I completely agree. Paranoia against speculators is counterproductive. _________________ only the paranoid survive
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
JohnDenver wrote:
Excellent news. I especially like that 402 to 19 vote tally. Very promising. A great first shot across the deck, and it should get even more interesting as they start firing the big guns.
Pay no heed to those who defend speculators. Without exception, these people are invested up to the gills in oil futures and ETFs, and don't give a rat's ass about anything but their own bottom line.
My favorite solution: Highly invasive IRS reporting requirements for anyone owning oil, or oil related futures, ETFs etc. Windfall profits from flipping these investments should be taxed at bonecrushing rates.
Whether this lowers prices or not is irrelevant. The important thing is to saw off the snickering hyenas who think they can profit with impunity off the pain of ordinary people.
I read Matt Savinar's _Life After the Oil Crash_ four years ago and I hedged my bets that energy production would soon be outstripped by demand. I am getting huge dividends right now.
Why is it that "oil speculation" is considered evil, but every damn bozo homeowner who treated their house like an ATM is about to get bailed out by the government?
Does that help? It looks to me like we're barely maintaining our level on stocks. That shouldn't be happening if oil is overpriced, unless people were anticipating price dropping in the near future.
Thanks, SPG. You might enjoy this back and forth between some old time traders about this issue. No particularly strong consensus emerges here either.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:35 am Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
Stupidity and irrationality are impervious to reason.
Of course, they always fail to achieve the desired results, but real stupidity (like JD's, Stupak's, Pelosi's...) never accepts defeat!
Those that act on its basis are incapable of questioning their beliefs.
They always tend to think that if after their action the problem is still unsolved, it must be because their measures where not strong/radical enough…
The solution is “escaping forward”, and imposing more of the same.
The end result of that kind of process is a mugabe running a zimbabue…
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:17 am Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
ClassicSpiderman wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
Excellent news. I especially like that 402 to 19 vote tally. Very promising. A great first shot across the deck, and it should get even more interesting as they start firing the big guns.
Pay no heed to those who defend speculators. Without exception, these people are invested up to the gills in oil futures and ETFs, and don't give a rat's ass about anything but their own bottom line.
My favorite solution: Highly invasive IRS reporting requirements for anyone owning oil, or oil related futures, ETFs etc. Windfall profits from flipping these investments should be taxed at bonecrushing rates.
Whether this lowers prices or not is irrelevant. The important thing is to saw off the snickering hyenas who think they can profit with impunity off the pain of ordinary people.
I read Matt Savinar's _Life After the Oil Crash_ four years ago and I hedged my bets that energy production would soon be outstripped by demand. I am getting huge dividends right now.
Why is it that "oil speculation" is considered evil, but every damn bozo homeowner who treated their house like an ATM is about to get bailed out by the government?
SOOO...does this mean that ALL Commodities will fall under the Big Brother? We have copper, aluminum, coal, Oh, BTW, corn...or is just Big Oil since the home ATM machines are now exempt thanks to the congress and senate. Help me out, I am so confused. What's next?
Yes, life in "Back in the USSR" was so good. Everything regulated, everything abundantly available, prices were controlled, just a smooth operating machine. I will dust off our civics class required reading book by Mr. Marx and get re-educated since we must go down that path to control those speculators.
FYI: they wouldn't be speculators if they didn't know what is going on (i.e., supply/ demand, growing markets, Suadi's who can't give a straight answer, poor grade oil coming out the wells, lack of refineries to process the oil, etc, etc, etc...). Maybe the new prices reflect a wake up call that says "Folks, the party needs to whine down now, time to go home.". "Awe, do we have to go, I like this cheap oil party..." _________________ THE SIMPLE LIFE: One frozen pond, a few sticks, a little round puck, and a bunch of rowdy kids.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:42 am Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Actually might work well for the Democrats if they can create gas rationing lines by November.
SPG, excellent idea! And the plus side of this is Obama can keep doing his Community Service by giving out rationing cards in his soon to be old neighborhood of south Chicago. You know, the same hood that Al Capone use to live in. AC knew all about this government control of things, so we need to study up on how to do it the Al way, sorta have a refresher course on the methods. I wonder if those homes still have those big size tubs? They will need them again. _________________ THE SIMPLE LIFE: One frozen pond, a few sticks, a little round puck, and a bunch of rowdy kids.
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: US House Votes to Curb Energy Market Speculators
Speculators are the best friend of Peak Oil. They are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
Curbing speculation when shortfalls are expected is the worst thing you could do.
Why are people on this board complaining about speculation, don't we all agree that Oil is far to cheap now and in the future will be much higher. I know the price of gas hurts, but we have to feel pain in order to change. If the price of gas is too high for you, start living the life now.
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