Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
The United States is the Saudi Arabia of agriculture. In fact, in economic terms as food goes up in price, its one compensating factor in the world economy favoring the U.S.
As others have written, grain prices will have the balancing factor of substitution away from livstock feed as the prices grow. Look to more grass fed beef and even lamb in the meat diet.
I feel the worst thing that will affect the American consumer from high prices may be a trend away from excess meat consumption. And, that will be a blessing in disguise.
Joined: Jun 20, 2008 Posts: 67 Location: Quebec/Ottawa, Canada
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:40 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
Denny wrote:
The United States is the Saudi Arabia of agriculture. In fact, in economic terms as food goes up in price, its one compensating factor in the world economy favoring the U.S.
Ummm, but food prices don't just magically re-appear in peoples pockets, nor either the farmers in most cases.
Point is, food prices are going up because oil is going up, so it's the oil producers/owners who are reaping the benefits of higher food prices.
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:06 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
yesplease,
greed, apathy as well as tribalism are part of the human condition. For the species as a whole there is no getting away from them so they must be part of our calculations. Pretending they are fungible, or worse yet negotiable, is fantasy and delays the interaction with reality that is needed.
Tribalism will reappear with a vengeance. We will not only not care that others are starving we will assume that they deserved it for either secular (they don't work hard enough or are not as smart as us) or religious (God is punishing them) rationales.
At the same time the causes of our own suffering, whatever it may be, will be externalized (they are doing this to us).
Of course we see these very attitudes in evidence on this board everyday, you do not need to travel very far. Perhaps you hear it at your Thanksgiving table or perhaps when you sit at the local diner.
You, I and St. Francis may be moved by altruism and love, but the Crusade finds more willing hearts than the call to poverty and selflessness. As individuals we do not need to be conformed to the realities around us, but we must come to grips with the realities. _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
yesplease wrote:
Sure, we can't transport leftover hamburgers to Africa
Hi, yesplease. Not addressed to you, but since you brought it up, I snort at these comments to send food to third world countries. In my travelings through our beautiful and powerful USofA, I'm often in the most empoverished counties and zip codes in the nation, and between us, it's nasty.
During the Katrina crisis, a relative found it was "less bureaucratic" --real quote-- to get passports, visas, currencies, vaccines, learn foreign expressions, and travel to Georgia (former USSR) to donate money and build a church, then to load a pick-up truck and drive down I-55. Absolute non-sense.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
um first world not a big problem, third world really big problem. You'd be surprised how little food you can live on third worlds already there so they dont have wiggle room like we do.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
You, I and St. Francis may be moved by altruism and love, but the Crusade finds more willing hearts than the call to poverty and selflessness. As individuals we do not need to be conformed to the realities around us, but we must come to grips with the realities.
And one of those realities is having a tremendous excess of food. Hell, we could have another Crusade where everyone eats meat from predators who have to eat meat from herbivores who have to eat grain that we grow then whine about how we're going to run into trouble w/ the food supply, but just because we whine about it doesn't make it so. What we're really having trouble w/ would be greed, and in that case fluff like what was posted is just fear mongering. _________________
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
wcur, you seem to be advocating a lot of gripping of reality lately.
There are a number of kinds of reality--the reality that the sun will eventually die, the reality that resources have limits, the reality that gw is beginning to pass crucial tipping points...
Compared to these hard realities, any statement about human behavior as "reality" is comparatively soft.
Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.
On a more ridiculous level, a couple years back tens of thousands of people quite suddenly and for the flimsiest of reasons gave up what had been considered "the staff of life" for thousands of years by their culture--it was called the Atkins diet. Sure it didn't last long, but if it were reinforced in positive ways, it may have (not that I think it was a very good idea). Such examples could be multiplied many times.
Don't get me wrong. I think it is extremely unlikely that globally people will make the changes necessary to avert the worst consequences of PO, and let's not even start on GW. But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.
Tyler, how much of US food production, transportation, and processing is currently dependent on fossil fuels? (hint--a lot)
The economics of food is so out of wack on so many levels, its hard to say anymore which element is the most destructive and distorting. What will happen to that crazy system as oil price continue to spiral ever higher is impossible to know exactly, but it is not likely to be pretty.
Moving massively to more local, non-pesticide dependent, lower-on-the-food-chain foods may help soften the blows to come, as well as having a variety of other benefits. But at this point, the change is already upon us, and most "adjustments" are likely going to be forced by circumstances rather than chosen by moral or other suasion.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
cube wrote:
Maybe pictures will get my point across.
The 3rd world will collapse.
The 1st world can afford to lose a little bit of weight.
Don't know, Cube. Other than the bottle of water and the grain bags themselves, it seems there was little fossil fuel on that 3rd world country's table, whereas here, it was all fossil fuel. What you think?
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
VMarcHart wrote:
cube wrote:
Maybe pictures will get my point across.
The 3rd world will collapse.
The 1st world can afford to lose a little bit of weight.
Don't know, Cube. Other than the bottle of water and the grain bags themselves, it seems there was little fossil fuel on that 3rd world country's table, whereas here, it was all fossil fuel. What you think?
on the contrary that bag of rice or beans probably came from the USA.
here's a nifty map:
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net imports of cereals (in US$) that are received there.
Notice that Africa is a major importer of cereals aka grains.
The purple in the upper right hand corner is Japan. Yes they import a lot of food too but they can afford it.
Africa has a bad combination of being poor and also a major food importer. That's the "perfect" combination for a die-off.
//
here's the opposite:
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of cereals (in US$) that come from there.
It's been said before, the USA is the Saudi Arabia for food production.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:18 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
dohboi wrote:
wcur, you seem to be advocating a lot of gripping of reality lately.
There are a number of kinds of reality--the reality that the sun will eventually die, the reality that resources have limits, the reality that gw is beginning to pass crucial tipping points...
Compared to these hard realities, any statement about human behavior as "reality" is comparatively soft.
Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.
...
But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.
The reality thing is something which core to who I am but yes I have made it more of a point to talk about it recently.
On the question of race I have two observations that lead me to believe that we have not really changed in any meaningful sense.
First, yes a black man will quite possibly be the next president of the United States, an idea that would amaze those living just 30 years ago. I would ask is this because Americans have become fundamentally less tribal or have the definitions and boundaries of the tribes changed?
30 years ago someone spewing racist speech would probably be allowed in common company, now they and not the black man are shunned. We can say that tribalism based on ideas and character is better than a tribalism based solely on race is an improvement (and I would concur) but it does not change the fact that there remains second class citizens. What about "white trash" or individuals who speak with a "hick" accent (white or black)? The white middle class tribe has allied itself with the educated black middle and upper class tribe against other tribes. The alliances have changed since 1968 but we are still tribal.
Secondly, our tribal nature has been... tamed by abundance. The tribe is most obvious when times are lean and when individuals fall back on "people like me." I have a (morbid) interest in watching how scapegoating and tribalism strengthen over the next few years. People are going to look for someone to blame, who will it be? The oil company tribe? The peak oil tribe? The arab tribe? The illegal immigrant tribe? I don't know but trust me on this... there will be a scapegoat and we will all soon be reminded of which tribe to which we belong.
I don't like it...
but it is the way things is.
I read ancient Roman, Jewish and Greek texts and it is a story about people. I recognize the emotions and the pain. I see the same crowd demanding circuses and bread. I hear the same mothers weep and father scream for the letting of vengeance's blood. I hear the same fundamentalists and the same calls for compromise. No, the story does not change, just the scenery and some minor details of dialogue. _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 6:56 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
cube wrote:
Maybe pictures will get my point across.
Thanks, Cube. True, we're the Saudia Arabia of grains. But you know, in my world travelings, for a while I lived in a house with a banana, mango, and avocado trees, 2 chickens and a pond full of fish not too far. Not the most balanced diet, but if I still lived in that country and house, and it hit the fan and food was scarse, I'd have plenty of calories to live. Whereas now, living in Chicago, I don't even know where the nearest apple tree is. I'm totally depended on fossil fuel for breakfast, lunch, tea, dinner, supper and snacks.
Back to the original post "...we have "innocently" accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations -- major ones being petroleum dependence and topsoil loss. The biggest wild card for our existence is climate change, as we see with floods and other extreme weather affecting our food supply..."
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