Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
The empire of cheap food is crumbling
Quote:
You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food. Need this be spelled out any more plainly? It is time to consider that the stage has been set for petroleum-induced famine.
We have "innocently" accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations -- major ones being petroleum dependence and topsoil loss. The biggest wild card for our existence is climate change, as we see with floods and other extreme weather affecting our food supply.
We are headed for massive shortages of food and other essentials, mainly brought about by the depletion of geological fossil reserves of cheap energy and water. The situation is demonstrated regularly with easy arithmetic based on statistical indicators from the United Nations, Worldwatch Institute, World Resources Institute, Earth Policy Institute, and numerous governments. Usually the full force of the message is offset by predictions of huge rises in future human population growth that are simple extrapolations of historical trends.
No one can say with certainty that the worst effects of today's crisis will occur tomorrow or by any particular date. But it is irrational to assume there will only be gradual tightening of supplies until some solutions miraculously come to our aid. One ought to at least admit that one year ago few people thought we'd be going in the direction we're going in, this fast, today.
Three days is our average food supply around the modernized world, i.e., for cities and their supermarkets. Long-term food stocks have plummeted: "Cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years," according to Worldwatch institute in its most recent Vital Signs. This is exacerbated by increasingly weirder weather, compounded by the oil price/supply pressure on food. What can interfere with the three-day situation are truckers on strike (as in Europe), extended/repeated power outages, and the inability of the work force to commute to work.
Quote:
When cities run out of food, and people want to leave en masse, they will get stuck in traffic jams the way fleeing (potential) victims of Hurricane Rita did in 2005. Will survivors be the ones who had the fullest gas tanks? Will these survivors also require guns to obtain food outside the city, whether by hunting or sticking up some hapless or well-armed locals?
Culture Change's reports do not intend to add to hysteria. Indeed, if only there were no reason to be alarmed. But looking at our collective situation, it is difficult to see how wrenching shortages are avoidable. The consequence of reactions to these shortages will not be pretty. Without facing this, and taking action to prevent it, our Ship of Fools is on a course to hit the rocks.
Whether you are relatively "set" -- with local food supply, not just money -- or you are living from paycheck to paycheck and thus depend on the trucks coming into the supermarket without a hitch, you will not be immune to some interruption or limitation on the food you have probably taken for granted. As petroleum is in fast-dwindling supply and is relied upon for mass producing our food, shipping it (on average 1,500 miles for North Americans), packaging it and preparing it, we are up against a petroleum-induced famine of our own making. What evil-doer will we blame instead of ourselves?
Quote:
The empire is crumbling, but first we must go through end-stages as the Romans and others had to: increasing debt, falling agricultural output, over-extended military, growing urban population without much productive purpose, etc. But we're the good guys! -- we call our empire's philosophy "Democracy," and we are so clever with science. Really, though, we've simply done better at distracting the populace and giving them the carrot more often than the stick, apparently. This translates to consumer freedom through more goods. The Big Gulp drink in disposable plastic -- who could ask for more? We have had none other than The Empire of Cheap Food. Cheap in the sense that cancer can be had at lower prices than previous generations had to pay. Also, subsidized petroleum (to this day as well) jacked up the food supply and the human numbers.
It's amazing how really intelligent people can be in dreamland over the possibility of positive change coming to the rescue. It's not just limited to the technofix. It's the general idea that people "are becoming more aware," or "there are more and more people getting into organic gardening, CSA's (Community Supported Agriculture), permaculture" and the like.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:39 pm Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
First people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.
London, May 30 - Global wheat production is set to soar to a record high this year, taking some of the steam out of the food inflation crisis which has caused severe hardship and even rioting in several developing countries.
The London-based International Grains Council raised on Friday its forecast for world wheat production in 2008/09 by 5 million tonnes to a record 650 million tonnes.
The inter-governmental body said wheat prices had already fallen by 25 to 50 percent from peaks set in March, adding that the favourable outlook and India's successful harvest had helped to ease food supply concerns.
The IGC raised its crop estimate for this year's harvest in India, the world's second largest wheat producer after China, to 76.8 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 75.5 million and last year's 75.8 million.
The upward revision also reflected improved prospects in several countries in eastern Europe including Russia, Ukraine, Poland and Romania.
The IGC also raised its estimate for wheat consumption in 2008/09 by 2 million tonnes to 632 million following the sharp setback in prices.
"Lower wheat prices should stimulate a recovery in food use in developing countries in Asia and Africa, and feed use will increase, especially in the EU and the US, because of tight supplies of other feeds," the report said.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1720 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:09 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
Quote:
First people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.
Which other starving nation has taken up cannibalism as stapel diet?
Can't say I heard about any cases of cannibalism from India, Biaffra, Ireland during potato famine, Cambodia during Pol Pot etc.
The modern cases of cannibalism I've heard about have been more ritualitic, like eating enemies body parts during cultural revolution or lonely weirdos like that Armin guy in Germany and some serial killers. The only case I can think of where they cannibalized in order to survive was that football (or rugby?) team in the plane that came down in the Andes during the 70s.
So why do we think cannibalism now suddenly will be preferred to starvation?
EDIT: Sorry, just remembered I did hear some stories about Cannibalism by hungry soldiers in Stalingrad as well. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:09 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
Micki wrote:
Quote:
First people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.
Which other starving nation has taken up cannibalism as stapel diet?
Can't say I heard about any cases of cannibalism from India, Biaffra, Ireland during potato famine, Cambodia during Pol Pot etc.
The modern cases of cannibalism I've heard about have been more ritualitic, like eating enemies body parts during cultural revolution or lonely weirdos like that Armin guy in Germany and some serial killers. The only case I can think of where they cannibalized in order to survive was that football (or rugby?) team in the plane that came down in the Andes during the 70s.
So why do we think cannibalism now suddenly will be preferred to starvation?
EDIT: Sorry, just remembered I did hear some stories about Cannibalism by hungry soldiers in Stalingrad as well.
but micki, your not cool if you don't scandalize by using the word cannibal. and there is also the donner party.
I kind of think they will make good fertilizer, and we are gonna need fertilizer, you know like the pilgrims. Or we could boil them down like whale's and sell the oil, or use it in lamps. Romans had a lot of luck burning them. And people are cheap, look how many there are, and its a renewable resource, you will never run out.
Maybe we could make a book about 101 uses for......well you get the idea. _________________ HOLDING THE CENTER
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2662 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:34 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well let's see . . .
Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.
Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.
Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.
Time for more,
Wheat production is suppose to run 650 million tonnes or 18 million tonnes over projected consumption.
Lets see if we can remember how to figure percentages?
what percent of 650 is 18
or
x/100 multiplied by 650 = 18
650x = 1800
x= 2.77%
So what you are saying OF is that there is a 2.77% margin of error between production and consumption. Doesn't sound as worthy of the confidence that you put into it...
at least I hope I'm never dependant upon a 2.77% margin of error
------------------
edit: not to steal your thunder Drifter... I missed your post until it was quoted.
Cur _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"A waste is a terrible thing to mind."
-Mama Cur
Last edited by wisconsin_cur on Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:46 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:42 am Post subject: Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
Drifter wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well let's see . . .
Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.
Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.
Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.
A 3% ton worldwide surplus of wheat between supply and demand not a very large buffer.
Once you add in a 1% world population growth rate the number just gets worse.
Does anyone have the stats for corn and rice?
50% of world human calorie intake comes from just those 3 staples: wheat, rice, corn.
cube's 333 theory
1) keep an eyeball on those 3 foods
2) production of all 3 will eventually drop
3) repeat this 3 years in a row
add this up == Cannibalism
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5Next
Page 1 of 5
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
