Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:19 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
It's a computer game in which you play the role of a hacker.
I guess the same guy that downloads a game in which he plays the role of a person killing others, would download it _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
It's a computer game in which you play the role of a hacker.
I guess the same guy that downloads a game in which he plays the role of a person killing others, would download it
Hmm, that is not quite the same. Down loading a file from a hacker website might be more like an off-duty US serviceman in Iraq going down to the local souk to buy the latest version of Call of Duty from a guy named Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
I do believe in PeakOil ... but come on people! What's with this exagerated doomerosity?
. . .
Tell you what will happen ... at least a quarter of the world's population that is not producing anything, just using up resources, will eventually vanish.
. . .
Look around you and do some math. We can cut our resource usage by 50% with zero impact on our lives. Just smart thinking
You accuse others of "exaggerated doomerosity" and in the same post say "at least a quarter of the world's population will vanish" due to PO? Let's see, you believe that more than one billion people will die but don't believe that qualifies as "exaggerated doomerosity?" Go ask any financial analyst, anyone with the CDC or like organization if more than a billion people dying will be good for world markets? If everything is measured by the value of the stock market, what effect would it have on world stock markets if over 1 billion people vanished as you predict? Many have predicted stock market crash with far less a death rate caused by a flue.
I think many would argue that you are the pot calling the kettle black.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
Let's assume that you and I, and another 998 people, are living on a small island that resembles the planet on a small scale.
750 of us are working, producing things we need, building things, etc ... just like a real economy.
250 are sitting on a beach, doing nothing, and waiting for us to put in some extra hours to serve them food, shelter, and few cold drinks.
Here comes a tsunami and blasts the 250 people that are doing nothing, from the beach. They vanish.
What happens the next day?
A) We get to go home earlier as we no longer need to put in the extra hours and the rest is business as usual
B) Our stock market crashes, riots start, we start killing eachother, and eventually we all die
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
You accused some unnamed posters here of exaggerated doomerosity, yet in the same post, said more than 1/4 of the world's population would "vanish" due to PO. Many people would argue that is an extremely pessimistic view, one which would collapse world markets. I'm pointing out that when you may be guilty of the charge of "exaggerated doomerosity."
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
Have you actually read my post above? Or you are the kind of person who just likes to enforce his oppinion on others, no mather what arguments are given?
And what has the stock market to do with people that have no economic input? The fact that 99% of people trade stocks based on media news and mathematical analysis, that is one thing. Those people sell and buy stocks based on any piece of crap irrelevant news.
If you are so wise, please do explain how come that our stock index (BET) lost over 30% this year, while the companies included in the index performed well? Profits were up, and everything looked good.
How come the markets are down and my portfolio is up 4.3% expressed in EUR and 7.6% expressed in USD for this year?
Let's say I own Microsoft. 1 billion people die who really don't make any difference for that company ... why would it crash?
A price crash on the stock market from a panic point of view, it's totally expectable. But don't imagine that if one stock falls 50%, it means the company lost 50% of it's value, or it's profits decreased with 50% ... _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 61 Location: middle of the USA
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
Let's assume that you and I, and another 998 people, are living on a small island that resembles the planet on a small scale.
750 of us are working, producing things we need, building things, etc ... just like a real economy.
250 are sitting on a beach, doing nothing, and waiting for us to put in some extra hours to serve them food, shelter, and few cold drinks.
Well, IF that were the case, yeah, economically, it would not have a negative impact. However, 1 billion people don't just disappear.
They die of starvation, because there isn't enough food. The lack of food makes prices extremely high for everyone. 95% of the people will be impoverished, the landowners get rich. Riots happen.
Or, they die of some epidemic. Then deaths will hit the productive classes too.
War is likely under quite a few scenarios. The conventional type wars take a heavy toll on young men and are ridiculously expensive. The nuclear type ... well lets just say it has even more drawbacks.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
@Daphne64:
Don't think vanish as in they die overnight. They won't even (have to) die. Just think of them as dissapearing from the economic circuit.
Think of low-end neighbourhoods, with no services, no heat, no nothing. It's what will eventually happen.
Riots over what? Yes, they will riot and burn down their neighbourhood even more. Who cares?
What do you think the average life expectancy under those circumstances is?
Don't be misslead by current riots. They have an economic issue behind it. Gas prices. Years ago the french poured milk on the streets.
People who will be pushed to live at the limit of existence, won't riot. How many riots have you seen in poor neighbourhods, versus riots for some economic reason, made by people that are not actually poor? _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:38 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
I do believe in PeakOil ... but come on people! What's with this exagerated doomerosity?
Ok ... reckless lending caused some banks to have some huge losses, but I look around. Our stock market index is down over 30% for this year, yet all the companies reported higher then expected profits, they have strong balance sheets, etc ...
IMHO, some people are no longer in touch with reality.
Tell you what will happen ... at least a quarter of the world's population that is not producing anything, just using up resources, will eventually vanish. That will cut down resource usage, and we will get along just fine.
I am a software developer. Writing software is pretty much like how the real world works. You develop until you get something going. Then you start optimizing and end up with code that uses 25% of the original resource requirements. Same with the real world. We made the "code", now it's time to "optimize".
Look around you and do some math. We can cut our resource usage by 50% with zero impact on our lives. Just smart thinking
Respectfully mrobert, if you believe that you can get rid of a quarter of the world's population, power down and be as you said along just fine, i got a beautiful big bridge that i would like to sell you. Income assured!. Do you have any idea of the scale of that transformation?, the changes in the society (and the pain included)? BTW, I work in software development too (internet related) and those are the first jobs that will go away. No need for flashyies websites with flash interactive content when you are unemployed and looking for food. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
@Daphne64:
Don't think vanish as in they die overnight. They won't even (have to) die. Just think of them as dissapearing from the economic circuit.
Think of low-end neighbourhoods, with no services, no heat, no nothing. It's what will eventually happen.
Riots over what? Yes, they will riot and burn down their neighbourhood even more. Who cares?
What do you think the average life expectancy under those circumstances is?
Don't be misslead by current riots. They have an economic issue behind it. Gas prices. Years ago the french poured milk on the streets.
People who will be pushed to live at the limit of existence, won't riot. How many riots have you seen in poor neighbourhods, versus riots for some economic reason, made by people that are not actually poor?
So you expect that people starving and unemployed that have to sustain families will just sit down and "vanish" silently? Well everybody is entitled to his opinion. That is going to be tested very soon, if things keep at this pace.
In the meantime check some precedents:
- Los Angeles riots
-Argentina riots
- Haiti riots
- Cameroon riots
- Indonesia riots
- France riots (video)
When a riot breaks, police and security is deployed to protect gov buildings, banks, politicians and essential infrastructure. You as a citizen are on your own. People will not sit down to philosophize over their destiny. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
It will happen. Regardless of what he think. And the final result will be the same.
Riot, or not riot, it will go down the same way to the same point.
Overpopulation is our major issue!
Let's assume for a moment that all resources are unlimited.
We would be unable to scale up their production, as long as for every 1 working person that is born, 3-4 more come that need to be sustained.
Just look around you for a moment. More and more taxes, to support more and more social programs. Take drugs for example. How many billions are being used to fight them? I wouldn't care about it. Wanna do drugs? Be my guest.
Smart people that care and work hard, get to make 2 children at most. Ignorant fouls who thinks that rioting and destroying things is the answer for every issue, get to make at least 2.
When I try and tell people about peak oil, here is what I say:
"Ever considered that we are a growing population using limited resources such as oil, etc, and very soon will either run out or not be able to produce as much as needed, and the prices will soar?"
Here are the answers I get:
1. You are absolutely right. I was thinking about getting a large SUV or some other resource intensive item. Wanna hear some details?
2. Don't worry. There are resources for hundreds of years. It's just those interest groups that ripp people of with high prices (oil companies, etc). Next I will vote for some retard who will impose even higher taxes.
3. Don't worry. There is technology to run cars on water and magic wands that can make everything appear. It's because of those arabs that they are yet unavailable for us.
and so on ...
Does it appear to you that the ratio of rational people to sheep, is below 1 to 10.000 ?
Make sure you move into a quiet and nice place. Take cover, and let it all happen. It won't be more then a few years. After that, whoever will be left, we will continue to drive SUV's, use the internet, and so on ... except do it in a sustainable way.
Where I am moving, there will be no riots. People still work their land like they did 50 years ago. Just a couple of miles outside the city, on a road that leads to nowhere, and where is really nothing somebody would ever be interested in.
Just be smart, and you will be fine
Remember this one from me: People that make riots and other distructive things, don't have to brains to organize, leave their ground and search for places where you might be, and get their hands on your stuff. Take the time and observe the habbits of hoards of people, rioting out of control ... they barely move 1 mile _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
I do believe in PeakOil ... but come on people! What's with this exagerated doomerosity?
Tell you what will happen ... at least a quarter of the world's population that is not producing anything, just using up resources, will eventually vanish. That will cut down resource usage, and we will get along just fine.
I am not sure who you are talking about here - poor people in developing countries (using few resources) who have limited opportunities or lazy people in your society(using relatively more resources) or both? Please clarify
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
@turner. I live in Romania. Which makes me between an undeveloped and a developed country.
This is a delicate subject to discuss ... but if you really want to know which people will vanish ... those that can't adapt, those that are dependent on the "system" to provide their welfare. _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: Royal Bank of Scotland warns of global stock market cras
mrobert wrote:
@turner. I live in Romania. Which makes me between an undeveloped and a developed country.
This is a delicate subject to discuss ... but if you really want to know which people will vanish ... those that can't adapt, those that are dependent on the "system" to provide their welfare.
You are a wise man. Will be interesting to see if things come to pass as you have foreseen. It sure makes me less doomerish in my outlook.
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