How much oil do we REALLY have left?

Concerned1 · Coal Joined: Jun 06, 2008 Posts: 7

I've been thinking about this Peak OIl thing. The 'experts', including the oil industry, say we've used about 1 trillion barrels of oil since the dawn of human history. But if you look at their graphs of usage you can see even despite the industrial age and the advent of the car, the world only really started to use oil in quantity since about 1960. And most of that went to the U.S..

Well now, their saying we probably have as much as another 1 trillion barrels of the stuff left in the ground. Sounds impressive. But, aside from the fact that that would mean that we've already hit the peak (and who really knows), we have to look at the graph again and see that for most of the industrial age, we've actually used very little oil. The lion's share has been consumed since about the 60's. That means that we've used most of that 1 trillion barrels of oil in just the last 50 years. And conditions are far different now than they were then.

We had less than a half of the current worlds population in 1960. Population than was estimated to be about 2,981,659 people on earth. Now we have about 6,700,000. So human population has grown by more than twice what it was in the 50's and that rate is increasing exponentially - growing faster and faster because the base keeps expanding. Also few countries at that time could afford to even have a working automobile system. Unlike then, many countries today are quickly modernizing, big countries with hugh populations like India and China. China has about 5 times the U.S. population and India nearly the that many. And they want (and rightly deserve) the same access to oil that we've enjoyed for these last few decades.

So the rate at which the world will use that remaining oil must also grow exponentially. And the more we use, the lower the underground oil table goes, the harder it is to get out of the ground. Probably the last amounts will be near impossible to extract because of varying geological factors. It's not under pressure anymore, and it'll be recessed in underground caves, niches and whathaveyou. So then, barring some extraordinary new find (and like I said, who knows, anything's possible), how far will that next 1 trillion barrels of oil get us?

Not very far, I think.

MD

yull

The last half of our oil will have much less net oil energy than the first half as it will be of poorer quality will require more resources to access, so we've used well over 50% of our net oil energy (while around 50% in volume). Net oil energy is all that's important.

We've probably actually used about 60% of the total oil deposited, so theres's 40% of our oil left, in volume. Taking into account the above, there's probably only 25-30% of our net oil energy left. Taking into account net oil energy per capita, as the population has grown substantially then that is even lower. Suddenly that 50% of oil left at peak is effectively more like 15-20%, with 80-85% gone forever. Declining quality and declining EROEI should accelerate with time.

Basically, the amount of net oil energy for each person on Earth is going to fall off a cliff, we're talking double figures decline rates. Net oil exports also add a whole grim new layer.

It's a lot grimmer when you dig down deep.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

So dermatologists are the oilmen of the face?
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

Wren · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 30, 2008 Posts: 64 Location: Oregon

concened1 wrote:
Population than was estimated to be about 2,981,659 people on earth. Now we have about 6,700,000.

I believe we're in the billions now, not millions, but I think we all know what you meant.

And I think what's left in the ground is not as big an issue as "Energy Returned On Energy Invested" (I think that's right) or EROEI. Are you yet familiar with that? That made a lot of stuff more clear for me.
And the energy contained in oil is so great. There's really nothing to replace it and when you look at what all we do with oil, in what ways we're dependant on it... It's a swirling converging mess.

Thanks for your question. Good luck to you!

TheDude

JoeW

MonteQuest

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

TheDude

Dezakin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 09, 2005 Posts: 1360

hiperhiper · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 16, 2007 Posts: 44

Ludi

Dezakin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 09, 2005 Posts: 1360

Troyboy1208

Wow Freddy got banned...I missed that one. What did he do?