For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
Dezakin wrote:
Ludi wrote:
hiperhiper wrote:
I also believe that nukes will save the day in short term and in the log term we have fission and after that massive hydrogen on Jupiter.
I believe we will have flying Monkey Butlers.
Really after 100 years everything gets far to distorted to predict anything, especially if we develop human level AI. We very well could engineer flying monkey butlers, or tear apart entire stars for fuel. Who can guess at the limits and motivations of gods?
Imagine that, if we develop real AI that would change everything it would launch us into totally new era and OIL no longer would be problem
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
Dezakin wrote:
Really after 100 years everything gets far to distorted to predict anything, especially if we develop human level AI. We very well could engineer flying monkey butlers, or tear apart entire stars for fuel. Who can guess at the limits and motivations of gods?
We've peaked. Accept it. 100 years from now will look a lot like 100 years ago. There will just be a lot more intriguing ruins to explore. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2948 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
Troyboy1208 wrote:
Wow Freddy got banned...I missed that one. What did he do?
Freddy hasn't been banned.
Monte is stating that the rate we are driving species to extinction and destroying habitats will be so ruinous to the biosphere to eventually lead to a dieoff. Dez has stated that species diversity is purely of interest to humans on an aesthetic level and that biospheres are of no importance to humans in the end. Thus, you have two very assertive personalities basically talking past each other.
I'm sure if Monte checks in you'll see some fur fly. I do hold out hope for AI, humans are just inherently rapacious., and given the means will destroy any resource they see fit for gain. If we manage to upload ourselves and turn the whole galaxy into a cheesy strip mall...well, that's a bit out of our hands, isn't it? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:17 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
Dez is one of the best reasons for the ignore button in the Universe he seeks to grind under his heel.
Fortunately for us his misguided delusions will be ground to scatological dust under the inescapable weight of the immutable laws of nature. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
Really after 100 years everything gets far to distorted to predict anything, especially if we develop human level AI. We very well could engineer flying monkey butlers, or tear apart entire stars for fuel. Who can guess at the limits and motivations of gods?
We've peaked. Accept it. 100 years from now will look a lot like 100 years ago. There will just be a lot more intriguing ruins to explore.
And what leads you to believe this fantasy?
Seriously this meme is ever popular here without any grounding in facts. We have 160 trillion tons of fissionable material, 10^16 watts of solar insolation, and vast infrastructure.
Theres this notion of a die off because we're in overshoot for those who believe Catton is the next saint, but all these arguments are tautologous. This is not the apex of civilization, though perhaps this century the last chapter in merely human civilization.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
I'm glad someone made the connection of face oil and crude oil.
My teenage daughter told me that in earlier times, before the advent of (petroleum based) Chapstick, people used the oil on their noses and spread it on their lips for moisture and softness.
)should that have gone on the Planning forum?
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
PraiseDoom wrote:
[Some people do seem to be wildly enthused about killing off as many people who they don't like as possible, don't they?.
Some people?
You mean nature, don't you?
And it isn't about like or dislike, it's about the inability to tolerate such numbers.
Ever hear of limits? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
PraiseDoom wrote:
I certainly didn't, no. I was referring to a human concept which involves the hope that people will die off in some form or fashion so that the world will be better. I'm not sure quite how this concept works, but it is implicit in their statements.
Not in any of mine, it isnt.
Quote:
I hear of them all the time. Doesn't appear to have much effect on the human species ability to alter their environment to suite them though.
And that, is the definition of overshoot.
"By definition, overshoot is a condition in which the delayed signals from the environment are not yet strong enough to force an end to growth." _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
MonteQuest wrote:
PraiseDoom wrote:
I certainly didn't, no. I was referring to a human concept which involves the hope that people will die off in some form or fashion so that the world will be better. I'm not sure quite how this concept works, but it is implicit in their statements.
Not in any of mine, it isnt.
Maybe thats a disadvantage of high post counts, you forget some of the stuff you write.
I present....
Monte Says wrote:
You got to be kidding, you say? No, I am not. We either do it by design or by default. What's it gonna be folks. Do or die.
Can't be that bad, you say? Want to stake your life and the human race on it? Get ready to make some hard choices.
We must become our own predator.
So...becoming our own predator eh? Yeah, it doesn't sound like a cheerleader for human on human destruction either...what could I have been thinking, actually reading what you wrote.
I hear of them all the time. Doesn't appear to have much effect on the human species ability to alter their environment to suite them though.
And that, is the definition of overshoot.
I thought that was the definition of adaptation?
MonteQuest wrote:
"By definition, overshoot is a condition in which the delayed signals from the environment are not yet strong enough to force an end to growth."
Cool. By that definition, and humans ability to adapt their environment to their own ends, we don't have to worry about being in overshoot any time soon. Or until the sun stops shining anyway.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2948 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 1:56 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
PraiseDoom wrote:
TheDude wrote:
Troyboy1208 wrote:
Wow Freddy got banned...I missed that one. What did he do?
Freddy hasn't been banned.
He was locked out last weekend. Ask him, its how I found out, asking about a graph of his.
His profile doesn't indicate as such: FreddyH. Perhaps he's just having trouble logging on, eh? Has happened.
I hope he hasn't been booted - don't agree with his conclusions but he has interesting data to contribute. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:28 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
I read on the Oil Drum that we may have about 4200 gallons per person on the earth left. That's only enough to drive about 84,000 miles if your car gets 20 mpg.
That's not that much. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
PraiseDoom wrote:
So...becoming our own predator eh? Yeah, it doesn't sound like a cheerleader for human on human destruction either...what could I have been thinking, actually reading what you wrote.
Your inability to comprehend the reality of ecological overshoot and die-off causes you to fail to grasp what I write. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Jun 20, 2008 Posts: 48 Location: Wales U.K.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 5:32 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
Apparently, according to B.P., we have as much new oil under the north sea as has already been pumped. If this is true however where do we get the drilling rigs from, and will the next conservative goverment nationalise the industry to keep the oil in the country?
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:34 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
graham wrote:
Apparently, according to B.P., we have as much new oil under the north sea as has already been pumped. If this is true however where do we get the drilling rigs from, and will the next conservative goverment nationalise the industry to keep the oil in the country?
Hello, I am from Wales too.
The last time I looked at BP statistical review they said that the North Sea had 3.9 billion barrels compared to the 25 billion or so that have been produced. UK North Sea oil production has been declining since 1999 and has fallen from 2.9 mbpd to about 1.2 mpbd in that time. The north sea is all but finished.
Joined: Jun 20, 2008 Posts: 48 Location: Wales U.K.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:54 am Post subject: Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?
yes i know the existing north sea reserves are in decline, but there was an article on bbci business news in which bp were claiming there is as much oil still under there in untapped wells as has already been drilled. Does anyone know about this or is it all b.s.?Where in Wales are you?
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