His name is Lindsay Williams. Tell me why this guy is a nut. He's claiming that Alaska's North Slope has reserves adequate for the next 100 years and that if only we could drill that oil, our domestic prices would drop down to $1.50 a gallon.
Someone, knowing my stance on this, sent me this link as PROOF that there's plenty of oil and that all this peak oil business is untrue.
His name is Lindsay Williams. Tell me why this guy is a nut. He's claiming that Alaska's North Slope has reserves adequate for the next 100 years and that if only we could drill that oil, our domestic prices would drop down to $1.50 a gallon.
Someone, knowing my stance on this, sent me this link as PROOF that there's plenty of oil and that all this peak oil business is untrue.
HF
It's rare that I take the time to do this hope_full but I think it will do some good here.
You have to research the issue far beyond the scoffing retorts of your friend and acquaintences. The issue of peak oil which is no breaking into major global news has been studies by all of the leading people in the field and all agree it will happen this century. The debate then ranged around when for many years with a timeframe of between 2004 and 2012 getting the most attention.
Here is a portal that will help you do the necessary research to ask some of the important questions.
1) What happens when supply of remains flat for year sin the face of record high demand? Why would it do so given the consequences?
2) What is EROEI and what does it mean when the net energy density of supply drops dramatically as one high grade of oil peaks and we attempt to make up the difference with less energy dense or more energy intensive grades of oil.
3) What are the economies of scale and EROEI for all alternatives to light sweet crude?
4) How long would it take the US to change out it's car fleet to be 25% more efficient?
5) Understanding the EROEI of ethanol, why has the market for ethanol come into existence at all? What are it's impacts?
6) Why are Goldman Sachs and othe rmajor investors predicting $250 oil sometime in the next two years?
If you dig in and study, the dots pretty much connect themselves. I'm sorry that it is hard to understand this, and I know why that is for most people. Humans take things for granted. Before 9/11 we had a generation that took for granted that America would never be attacked. Who would dare? Before peak oil we have a generation that takes prosperity for granted. We are entitled to our lifestyle!
All modern luxuries are going to pass away from us because of peak oil. My prayer is that we find again what is truly valuable and I think many will. I hope you stick around and ask lots of questions. There are people here who can help you get your bearings and that is what this site is really for.
We are usually about 6 to 18 months ahead of the curve here. We predicted the housing bubble burst years before it happened. We knew the hedge funds would go down, we knew the dollar would go down, we also knew that in this time frame oil production would peak and that this would drive nearly everything we are seeing now, from the airline troubles to the diesel fuels shortage.
America danced to Pan's tune. Now the Swan Song is upon us and where do we turn? Is darkness going to promote us to the light which it hates? Every perspective on the issue suggests that we are living in the twilight of American hegemony and that Iraq was a clumsy effort at preserving it. Unless those who do evil intend to soil the sandbox completely American will lose strength in the next decade as Europe surges. Remember the Europeans do not need oil to grow their GDP nearly as much as we do, and they have a nice 75% gas tax they can trim down to bring relief if needs be. We have a $.70 gas tax and a cumbling infrastructure, bankrupt state, local and fedearl governments with accelerating inflation. We also have the baby boomer retirement to contend with which is all by itself a recipe for recession.
The illusion of entitlement in this nation is about to make an abrupt and decidedly uncomfortable stop. I pray God's grace for you and all others who would turn quickly to things like this video you have posted here. Denial is the first step to freedom, because you would not deny something that was not uncomfortably true. However, denial cannot save. Avoidance cannot save. Bargaining cannot save. Anger cannot save. Acceptance and wisdom can give you hope, real hope.
Others here do not agree with this, but I will also add, that alot of people who know about this issue are Christian or are considering God. I believe that prayer and faith in Jesus Christ are a great source of peace. As dark as it gets, God does have it under control. Finding a spiritual grounding point will probably be important. In a kind way I am suggesting you call out to the Most High God, who has revelaed himself to us in Jesus Christ.
And if you are a Christian, I think God's Spirit led you here. The 'church' in America is 85% of America, and the 'church' has not been completely faithful in it's stewardship. Fruit grows according to the type of tree that gives it life. What type of tree produced the invasion of Iraq and the current efforts to force the Iraqi's to sign a status of forces agreement that makes Iraq a US dependency? What type of tree produces fruit whereby we burn our food in our SUV's while people in foreign countries starve?
I've touche don every issue there. I hope you take time to consider them all, as I have sort of paraphrased for you the information you would find if you took a little more time to read the site before posting.
Also, If Alaska's north slope had the amount of oil Williams claims the US would have tapped into at least half of it instead allowing itself to peak domestically back in 1970. The utility of 100 years of good oil is far to large to keep all of it for a rainy day.
Question your reality from the safety of your couch, and even from there you might find something really surprising.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:52 am Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
hope_full,
I don't like knocking your hope but I listened to Mr. Williams speech. I've been a petroleum geologist for over 30 years. And, no, I haven't worked on the North Slope. But I do know a little about the work there. I won't try to contradict every statement he made except one: the 1 billion cubic feet of gas that BP is injecting into Prudhoe Bay. He makes this sound like some big secret to hide the fact we have so much gas up there. It's not a secret at all. It's been published in tech journals for years. They re-inject the gas in order to maintain reservoir pressure (just like shaking up a warm can of soda pop). If he has worked on the Slope then even a non-oil patch guy would know why they are doing it. The fact that he uses this story to prove there's a plot afoot tells me he's definately on a con.
I'm sorry but with that one big lie he has destroyed any credibilty he could have earned.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
Thanks for your thorough response, Peleg.
I've been at this site for about three weeks and in that time, I've done a voluminous amount of reading, primarily of the threads at this site. I've also read two "Peak Oil" books in that time and watched two documentaries (Crude Awakening and The End of Suburbia). In short, I'm doing the work and scrambling to learn as fast as possible.
I've noticed a tendency to send neophytes back to the forum with instructions to "search the site" and "do a little more reading" but speaking as one of those neophytes, it's daunting to undertake the task of reading each and every thread in its entirety. And many of these threads seem to take a life of their own and meander down wholly different paths than their title indicates.
This morning, an old timer suggested that another newbie "go do a search on psychology and learn about the mental evolution of someone who's just discovered Peak Oil." I went to the search feature and looked and looked and looked but couldn't find the particular thread that was being referenced - and I really wanted to learn more about that very thing!
This site contains vast amounts of info and sometimes, it's hard to know where to start - and STOP!! There's the "news items" and older news items and regular news items. In short, I'm getting up to speed but it's taking a whole lot of time. And I have zero support from the family and friends. They all think I'm crazy as a loon, but that's okay.
I suppose I'm asking that the experts and those who've been here for months or years, please be kind to us newbies. This is all new turf and we're scrambling to catch up and read up and learn a whole new language and become informed. Heck, I spent a couple hours just figuring out all the short-hand (such as EROEI), but I'm deciphering the code, slowly but surely.
And yes, I do believe that God's grace led me to investigate this topic of Peak Oil.
Thanks again for your wonderful post and thanks for taking time to explain this particular issue. And if anyone knows where that thread is about the mental evolution of a newbie, I'd love to read it.
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 736 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
Peleg
I agree with most of your post, superbly covered with one contradiction. Where Europe does better in such a situation is questionable. It may for the reasons you mentioned. But remember, with their huge tax they are even more dependent on entitlement than the US. If they reduce their taxes to compensate they have to reduce their entitlements. That brings folks to the street as we are seeing now demanding their entitlements back.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
Simple.
If someone is stupid enough to believe a YouTube video in which some nutty Baptist Preacher yaks on about a giant conspiracy to hide massive oil reserves based on - his stories he heard while proselytizing 30 years ago -
Then . . .
They deserve to be zombie food. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3434 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
Peleg wrote:
...
2) What is EROEI and what does it mean when the net energy density of supply drops dramatically as one high grade of oil peaks and we attempt to make up the difference with less energy dense or more energy intensive grades of oil.
3) What are the economies of scale and EROEI for all alternatives to light sweet crude?
...
Very important relationships that deserve deep scrutiny, if you haven't done so yet. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
hope_full wrote:
And I have zero support from the family and friends. They all think I'm crazy as a loon, but that's okay.
That's quite common at least at the beginning.
Quote:
I suppose I'm asking that the experts and those who've been here for months or years, please be kind to us newbies.
The main point is that there are no easy solutions. People here as well as many experts, think tanks etc have investigated this issue quite extensively and this is the one point which they all agree with. The old timers here tend to react with irritation when a new poster comes up with some childish all-encompassing answer to the whole thing. You will gradually discover yourself just how naive these "solutions" look like once one starts grasping the full ramifications of the problem.
You should be fine if you can avoid that behavior. _________________ only the paranoid survive
His name is Lindsay Williams. Tell me why this guy is a nut. He's claiming that Alaska's North Slope has reserves adequate for the next 100 years and that if only we could drill that oil, our domestic prices would drop down to $1.50 a gallon.
Someone, knowing my stance on this, sent me this link as PROOF that there's plenty of oil and that all this peak oil business is untrue.
HF
Send him this:
ANWR: How much oil is there?
95% Probability 5.7 billion bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 billion bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 billion bbls = 1.9 mbpd
Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.
From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.
.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand
Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.
And the clincher?
The Alaskan pipeline only holds 2 mbpd and is half full now with Prudhoe Bay output. Add in ANWR's output and you have no more export capability...period.
So, any extra North Slope production is, in effect, stranded or limited to 1mbpd.
EIA, best case scenario ANWR would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel. So, that means a gasoline price drop of a penny to a penny and a half. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: Gas at $1.50 a gallon, if only our pres would allow dril
MonteQuest wrote:
The Alaskan pipeline only holds 2 mbpd and is half full now with Prudhoe Bay output. Add in ANWR's output and you have no more export capability...period.
So, any extra North Slope production is, in effect, stranded or limited to 1mbpd.
Monte, Monte, Monte, you forgot the most important part of the pipeline limitation.
IT'S TIME TO REBUILD IT!!! _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
