Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 1:44 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
CrudeAwakening wrote:
The division of labour and its attendant specialization of skills may be a boon in times of economic growth and abundance, but it renders us supremely vulnerable to more difficult times. Ask yourself how well you would cope if you were forced to barter to support yourself. If you are unable to feed yourself, what can you offer someone else in return for food? It's a sobering thought.
This one of the best aspects of intentional communities a la ecovillage. City folks starting them and moving to them get opportunity to relearn basic skills by doing - together instead of trying to cope alone, worrying about bartering.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 6:16 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
Heineken wrote:
$250 oil would be accompanied by an unraveling the likes of which the world's never seen.
I respectfully beg to differ, Heineken. If you replace "world" with "white Americans born after 1940", then yes, most probably. I've traveled and lived in numerous countries. We well-to-do folks have no idea of disaster and unraveling. It will be a tough adjustment to us, Heineken, but to call the end of one large freshly painted suburban bedroom per kid disastrous is unfair to families who live in one shack ... by the way, right here in the majestic USofA.
MrBean wrote:
Work less for money? Is that what you really meant to say? If so, sounds good, so why not just work less?
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6470 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 7:06 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
"Disaster" is a relative term. Of course.
And, when it happens to you, the rest of the world sort of fades to gray.
At the core of my beliefs is a belief in dieoff, VMarc. Not everyone dying, but a plunge in population to carrying capacity, whatever that will be (greatly reduced from what it was when the earth was pristine). Peak Oil is just one of the many factors that will feed in to this.
So, that's my definition of "disaster" as used in this thread. Yes, maybe most of the world will come to resemble Niger---scattered, impoverished cells of humanity clinging to life in a harsh, damaged environment. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
Heineken wrote:
"Disaster" is a relative term. Of course.
Agreed.
Heineken wrote:
At the core of my beliefs is a belief in dieoff. Not everyone dying, but a plunge in population to carrying capacity, whatever that will be...
Same here.
Heineken wrote:
So, that's my definition of "disaster" as used in this thread. Yes, maybe most of the world will come to resemble Niger---scattered, impoverished cells of humanity clinging to life in a harsh, damaged environment.
That will be disastrous, my friend, but it won't happen at $250/bbl, especially if it comes gradually over the next 3-5 years.
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
Heineken wrote:
So, that's my definition of "disaster" as used in this thread. Yes, maybe most of the world will come to resemble Niger---scattered, impoverished cells of humanity clinging to life in a harsh, damaged environment.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6470 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
VMarcHart wrote:
Heineken wrote:
"Disaster" is a relative term. Of course.
Agreed.
Heineken wrote:
At the core of my beliefs is a belief in dieoff. Not everyone dying, but a plunge in population to carrying capacity, whatever that will be...
Same here.
Heineken wrote:
So, that's my definition of "disaster" as used in this thread. Yes, maybe most of the world will come to resemble Niger---scattered, impoverished cells of humanity clinging to life in a harsh, damaged environment.
That will be disastrous, my friend, but it won't happen at $250/bbl, especially if it comes gradually over the next 3-5 years.
Maybe you're right. Since we haven't been there before, we'll have to see how it pans out.
A frightening experiment.
Our positions aren't too far apart. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
Heineken wrote:
We must hammer away at reminding people of all the fantastically complex, crucial interrelationships and interdependencies that are balanced on cheap oil like an elephant on the head of a pin.
Thanks, Heineken. I think that there will be all manner of unexpected consequences as the first domino begins to fall. I was discussing PO with some of my more environmentally aware friends recently, and they said, basically, "bring it on"; that we had lived without oil before and we would do so again. Sigh..Well, yes, I said, but the transition may be a little messy, to say the least... _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6470 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
CrudeAwakening wrote:
Heineken wrote:
We must hammer away at reminding people of all the fantastically complex, crucial interrelationships and interdependencies that are balanced on cheap oil like an elephant on the head of a pin.
Thanks, Heineken. I think that there will be all manner of unexpected consequences as the first domino begins to fall. I was discussing PO with some of my more environmentally aware friends recently, and they said, basically, "bring it on"; that we had lived without oil before and we would do so again. Sigh..Well, yes, I said, but the transition may be a little messy, to say the least...
Strongly agree. The unknown (and unknowable) consequences are the ones I most fear, and that will probably be the most disastrous. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
I look at it as what happens to the third world at those prices or before even. I see the poor of the developing world uprising, I see less demand for their goods, I see inflation in the first world due to their cost increasing. The chaos wont start in the first world it will happen there. It will eventually travel here as first a shock wave and then the full blast shortly after.
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
So, bean, the US suburbs are going to turn overnight into an ancient tropical food forest? Nice fantasy. Yes there is a lot that can be done, but most of it takes many years to establish, and we spent those many years driving SUVs, scraping good agricultural land of all "organics" to plant McMansions on them, and buying lots of crap to fill them with.
The environmentally minded friends that want to "bring on" PO don't seem to have reflected that even in its earliest pre-peak phases, it has spawned wars that sink endlessly into quagmires, abominations like bio-fuels and tar sand fiascos that obliterate landscapes and kill seas, and many many promises of further massively destructive idiocies and the tragedies they spawn to come (oil shale, coals to liquids, nukes everywhere, more wars, more wars, more wars, famine, pandemic...)
Yeah, bring it on.
(Of course if you were talking to Jack, that attitude would be understandable, if not quite forgivable.)
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:51 pm Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
dohboi wrote:
So, bean, the US suburbs are going to turn overnight into an ancient tropical food forest? Nice fantasy. Yes there is a lot that can be done, but most of it takes many years to establish, and we spent those many years driving SUVs, scraping good agricultural land of all "organics" to plant McMansions on them, and buying lots of crap to fill them with.
The environmentally minded friends that want to "bring on" PO don't seem to have reflected that even in its earliest pre-peak phases, it has spawned wars that sink endlessly into quagmires, abominations like bio-fuels and tar sand fiascos that obliterate landscapes and kill seas, and many many promises of further massively destructive idiocies and the tragedies they spawn to come (oil shale, coals to liquids, nukes everywhere, more wars, more wars, more wars, famine, pandemic...)
Yeah, bring it on.
(Of course if you were talking to Jack, that attitude would be understandable, if not quite forgivable.)
Problem with us, we can't think or act beyond selfish short-term conditioning. It does not really matter how many generations "turning US suburbs to food forest" would take. What matters is, how long are you going to postpone starting the planting?
Unless of course, you prefer the other "choises" instead of food forests when thinking about future generations...
Joined: Nov 01, 2005 Posts: 834 Location: Euro high horse bastard on the run
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:52 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
threadbear wrote:
Serial_Worrier wrote:
I won't be able to afford $7/gallon gas.
What will you do?
How so? Do you reside in the U.S. ?
People are driving $7-9/gall overhere and sometimes long distances with no prob. There must be still something substantially wrong in the discretionary spending category that you can drop, possible list follows:
-cable TV
-sub 40-50mpg car
(get Geo instead + apply efficiency mods)
-Repucratic party donations
-Christian fundamental church donations
-recreational drugs (tobacco, alcohol, mj, gambling, ..)
-spendy wify, mistress, kids, relatives, dogs/cats
-eating out instead of cooking home
-various bigbox crap on multiple credit cards
-suburbia and other penis enlargements
(oversized house, pool, tractor sized-lawn mowers-ICE, garden mega-grill, quad-ICE ...)
-"entertainment" crap - incl. console/video gaming
-medical bills
..
.
PS Give it a thought, asort your own list,
might get you prepared for that $15/gallon tag in a heartbeat..
Remember you can always find new home at the Blackwater training camp home or abroad, good salaries and many extras.. _________________ DOOMerotron: at all-time high [8.1] out of 10..
Joined: Nov 01, 2005 Posts: 834 Location: Euro high horse bastard on the run
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil
cube wrote:
Heineken wrote:
...
I don't think the societal groupthink response to our problems (electric and H cars, thorium reactors, biofuels, all that other techno stuff) is good. Forget perfect.
Unfortunately I am fully confident society will throw whatever precious resources we have into dead-end technologies and ridiculous mitigation efforts. It will be a catastrophic misallocation of capital.
)
Well, the celebrities, and upper middle class smarties are driving 150mi range/150mpg electrics as of today and being mostly of Hollywood/Calif. residence they feed it from solar PV too! Think in the line of Scion-eBox from ACP ($65k), or Tesla($100k), Aptera($30k), Fisker($70k), Tango etc.
Is this corcnocupian "lifestyle" going to trickle down to the masses as well? Most likely not, this could have and should have been done 50-100yrs ago..
This discrepancy as the economy goes under due PO will be more and more visible to the underprivillaged class and they won't like it.. _________________ DOOMerotron: at all-time high [8.1] out of 10..
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
