Timeline for Grocery store food shortages..........

vision-master

Dig this. This morning my trucking broker friend calls and we touch base on PO, although He hasn’t been a believer in the past, he's starting to come around. We get talking about food prices (that’s what he’s runs, fruit from Cali). He goes on to tell me, theirs no money in hauling can-goods. Then he tells me about his brother who sent a truck down to Texas for some can-goods and made a total of $500. Fuel costs alone were $3,600. Not enough profit to cover tire wear. The big corporations are not willing to pay the current shipping costs. So, these independents will get squeezed so much that stuff will not get transported SOON! Anyhoo, he figures we will start seeing food shortages within three Months and or if fuel rises another $1 gal. And, on top of that, he say’s you better start stocking up. This is from someone who just bought an F-350 4 door. :Shocked:

dunewalker

I suspect that the JIT inventory system will start to crumble by this 4th of July holiday. By that I mean shortages of normal items in grocery stores as well as others.
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jlw61

This is very interesting information and I'm not surprised to hear it. I do however believe you will find that there will be shortages in certain kinds of things. For instance, while Virginia will be swimming in peaches, Wisconsin will be full of apples because, I believe, truck shipping plays a big part on the distribution of those items. How California will be able to ship all of its produce, I haven't a clue.

The north south runs will still have the railroads (FL oranges come up along I-95 by the train load) but the East-West migration of food is going to be a bit of a problem. I suspect the worst shortages will be, as you said, canned and fresh foods if it is traveling East or West. The railroads will still be hauling for a long time, but it takes longer and I don't know how well the railroads can ramp up on refrigerator cars.
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allmeyer

I've been to the local Wal-mart recently and I've noticed that A LOT of items had passed their expiration date and were still on the shelves. This hasn't happened in the past - older food is usually put up on a 50% off shelf for quick sale. I was a little upset because I bought some macaroni & cheese without looking at the expiration date and it was a week old. I'm wondering if this is a way to make the shelves look fuller.

dunewalker

Heineken

Maybe we'll get out of Iraq and Afghanistan when people start starving here in large numbers?
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Dreamtwister · Fission Joined: Feb 06, 2006 Posts: 2057

I don't know what it's like in Minneapolis, but several of my neighborhood grocery stores have had "temporary shortage" signs on the front doors for, literally, months.
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vision-master

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4957

MarkJ · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 25, 2008 Posts: 141

No shortages in my area of Upstate New York, other than the shortage of 75 cent 32 ounce Gatorade that I may have caused at Wal-Mart Super Center.

Wal-Mart Super Center, Hannaford, Price-Chopper, Mom & Pops and Convenience Stores all have plenty of food. Sometimes the summer tourism and barbecue crowd takes crowd takes an unexpectedly large bite out of the supply chain. Since more people are buying in bulk, sometimes the people stocking shelves can't keep up.

heroineworshipper

It depends on the food. Certain kinds of grain & chicken are always gone. Where in the 80's you could always have exactly what you wanted, people have gotten used to not always having exactly what they want. They're not going hungry yet.
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GeoJAP

As others have noted, I agree with the theory that as soon as JIT shipping is disrupted, you will start to see minor disruptions in the food supply at the point of sale to the public.

Listen to those involved in wholesale and the trucking/transporation industry. I have found that those who work at the point of sale don't have very much information.

canis_lupus

Buddy of mine has worked in truck transportation his whole life. Chatting yesterday he said that since January, 937 trucking companies have gone under, from mom-and-pops to Jevic, which had 1400 people. The 30% fuel surcharge they are passing on doesn't cover it anymore.

I have been looking for the paperwork on this stat: in the event of a truckers' strike, there is only three days worth of food in our supermarkets. Can anybody here refute this? I've been digging around the Net and can't find anything.

It is interesting how record fuel prices have shoved record food prices off the front page!

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4957

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

The 2000 refinery blockades pointed the way. It depends on shelf life and consequent frequency of rotation. Milk, bread and fresh convenience food is delivered every morning, so there is only ever two days' worth. Meat, cheese, other perishable goods, a day or two longer. Canned food and cereals, you are looking at a week or two. That is, assuming no unusual demand response, and there really wasn't any that time. There was a week of serious transport disruption, by the end of which there was little milk, bread and especially meat (restaurants were making apologies too), but plenty of boxed and bagged cereals. Because the protests were of such short duration and return to normal service so rapid (road tankers had been the only real bottleneck), everything was back to normal within days without any further stress testing.

Based on that, three days or even a week is not a problem provided people do not freak out and service is restored quickly.
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"The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush