Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3639 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
medicvet wrote:
okay, so what I want to know is HOW FAST is this projected to happen? Faster than we can drill new wells on the west and east coasts? Faster than we can put windmills and solar panels everywhere?
Medicvet, at this point, nobody knows how fast this is going to proceed; logic dictates that it IS happening. Drilling new wells? That is like giving cough medicine to a lung cancer patient. You can suppress the coughing for a short time period, but the patient still is going to die of cancer. Elsewhere, on this website, you will find info on how long it takes to get a nuclear plant up and running; and, how much energy/oil it takes to make those windmills and solar panels (not to mention increasing scarcities as more people start to panic and try to acquire those items). There's also the unknown factors of depletion by other countries, especially China and India, just to name a few. And a lot of things could change in a hurry if Bush&Co succeeds in provoking Iran into war/nuclear war (ie: the proposed blockade).
medicvet wrote:
Or faster than we can do is reasonably and still remain somewhat of a free country?
Free country? And, just where might that be? Again, elsewhere on PO.com, there are discussions and lists of liberties that have been have already been severely curtailed or have been set up (needing only the stroke of the presidential pen) for the removal of many liberties.
medicvet wrote:
Or do we simply wake up one day and say hello to Mad Max?
No, I don't think we will wake up one morning and be in a Mad Max situation. I give it two to four years before restricted-everything is in place. It is a case of the slow-boiled frog.
You are in at the ground-floor, as the old saying goes. Either prepare for a vastly different world, in your lifetime, or become one of the "WTF is happening?!?" people who will be existing at the mercy and whim of TPTB (and the zombie hordes-had to include that! ) We are now at the stage of collecting information to fine tune our timeline of this event.
Variables that make it difficult to accurately predict the timeline with any high degree of accuracy at this time include climate change, possible nuclear war, the reactions of people & countries to the situation, and unknown remaining reserves of all resources.
Good luck to all of us..........
Edited to add: As PrairieMule stated elsewhere: "We have gone beyond Failsafe." _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:12 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:04 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
dohboi wrote:
EVs won't be ready on any significant scale over night. The '07 models of the Zenn didn't even sell out. There is growing interest, but also a lot of resistance to buying a vehicle with significantly lower ranges and mph than people are used to.
They won't need to be, at least from an economic perspective. Lets say oil reached ~$200/bbl and stayed there, then an EV might make financial sense, but if everyone suddenly jumps over to them assuming they were ready on a significant scale, then the price of oil would fall through the floor. What's happening is that EVs will be introduced gradually depending on local policies and secure a market share proportional to consistent fuel prices, which depend on oil prices and taxation. That's why Mitsubishi is bringing their EV to the UK, but not America. ~$10/gallon makes for a pretty wide margin of error even if oil prices drop. _________________
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:54 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
"EVs will be introduced gradually"
Right, that's what I just said. Somehow you seem to find that comforting. Do you think oil depletion is going to happen at a nice, stready, gradual pace? It may, but the people in the field are saying that every trick in the book has already been used to lengthen the plateau, so now when it crashes, its going to crash fast and hard.
Maybe it won't, but so far things have been developing faster than many on this forum thought they would. And this is about the doomiest crowd in town.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:11 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
dohboi wrote:
"EVs will be introduced gradually"
Right, that's what I just said. Somehow you seem to find that comforting. Do you think oil depletion is going to happen at a nice, stready, gradual pace? It may, but the people in the field are saying that every trick in the book has already been used to lengthen the plateau, so now when it crashes, its going to crash fast and hard.
Maybe it won't, but so far things have been developing faster than many on this forum thought they would. And this is about the doomiest crowd in town.
Yup, it will go from 85 bbd to 50 bbd in 24 hours.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:26 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
hmmmm. Did I say that? No, I didn't think so.
As I said, we can't know for sure, but many of the smartest posters here and over at TOD--posters who have been mostly right about longer term trends even when all of the very well paid pundits have been consistently 180 degrees wrong ( not newbies who seem to be able to rarely come out with anything better than snipes and innanities)--are seeing declines in the double digit percentages starting soon. Going from 85 to 55 bbd over two to three years after a long, fairly steady rise over the last century will feel pretty much like it was over night.
Maybe it won't happen that fast. Or maybe industry will suddenly and rapidly retool and consumers will rapidly readjust expectations.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I do have an EV. Do you folks? If not, why haven't you put your money where your happy talking mouths are?
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 5:07 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
dohboi wrote:
hmmmm. Did I say that? No, I didn't think so.
As I said, we can't know for sure, but many of the smartest posters here and over at TOD--posters who have been mostly right about longer term trends even when all of the very well paid pundits have been consistently 180 degrees wrong ( not newbies who seem to be able to rarely come out with anything better than snipes and innanities)--are seeing declines in the double digit percentages starting soon. Going from 85 to 55 bbd over two to three years after a long, fairly steady rise over the last century will feel pretty much like it was over night.
Maybe it won't happen that fast. Or maybe industry will suddenly and rapidly retool and consumers will rapidly readjust expectations.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I do have an EV. Do you folks? If not, why haven't you put your money where your happy talking mouths are?
I think that things are always later than you think. The time to dump the SUV was a year ago. Now they won't even take them as trades. I talked to a friend in NJ who told me that all the car dealers rejected a 2 year old Toyota SUV as a trade.
I would say that those 2007 Zenn's that didn't sell are the thing to get now. Grab one before everyone else realizes what's going on. This peak oil thing is like a window into the future. Even if the Zenn doesn't work for your lifestyle just yet, wait a couple of years. It will.
I think we'll be getting around our communities in smaller cars, and riding the bus to get to more distant places. I see this happening really soon.
The other thing to do is to get to know the bus schedule.
It's later than you think. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
medicvet wrote:
So what I want to know is HOW FAST is this projected to happen? Faster than we can drill new wells on the west and east coasts? Faster than we can put windmills and solar panels everywhere?
Yes, way faster. It takes 3 years to install a wind turbine generator. I do that for a living.
medicvet wrote:
...remain somewhat of a free country?
It will be free, alright, just not the way we're used to.
medicvet wrote:
Or do we simply wake up one day and say hello to Mad Max?
It won't be overnight, but gradually over the next 5-10 years.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
VMarcHart wrote:
medicvet wrote:
So what I want to know is HOW FAST is this projected to happen? Faster than we can drill new wells on the west and east coasts? Faster than we can put windmills and solar panels everywhere?
Yes, way faster. It takes 3 years to install a wind turbine generator. I do that for a living.
Do you mean construct/fabricate/transport/install, or just install like you said? _________________
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
I'm not so sure there is any magical price at which the world economy is in ruins. A fast rate of increase is what will likely get us, and keep in mind the devaluation of the dollar.
Ex: If the US dollar were to loose over 50% of its value in a month, oil would be near $300, the US economy would look like the 70's, but for the rest of the world oil would be no more expensive than today.
If their is a true sudden shortage or panic (say due to Iran war, attack on Saudi facilities, etc.), oil could triple or worse overnight against all currencies. The third world is then completely priced out. Most auto manufacturers and airlines are toast within months. Suburbia real estate collapses. Banks and hedge funds collapse. Global depression is a real possiblity - which would fairly quickly decrease demand and bring back balance to supply/demand. Even once oil prices declined back to 'reasonable' levels in the 1XX's, demand would not pick up for years due to the global financial devastation - 30-40% unemployed would not be buying much gasoline or heating oil.
However, if oil 'slowly' rises to $300 over say the next five years, the financial impact will be less as it will allow time for global finance, individuals and the governments of the world to react. They will keep the system going for yet a few more years. (who among us can honestly say that 5 years ago they would have believed we could have $140 oil in 2008 and still have relatively low unemployment and, at least on the surface, a fairly healthy global economy). A slow rise in oil prices is thus actually far worse for humans in the long run - people/socitieis won't change their behaviors fast enough to avoid an eventual total catastrophe (in say circa 2020-2030). The old slowly boiling frog analogy. Pray for a true oil price shock if you want humanity to survive; pray for a slow rise if you want to stay employed and enjoy the "good life" for a few more years but at the price of billions dying of starvation in the decades ahead.....
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
One thing that is not mentioned often is the fact that for the last 18 months we have basically been draining worldwide oil stockpiles. This can only continue for so long. At some point stockpiles get drained and MOL's begin to be breached. This will basically be the start of the next stage to the Peak Oil saga, where countries that have SPR's like the U.S. start to release that oil while beginning to institute rationing of some form. I would also expect a rapid rise the price of oil at this time as a supply shock occurs as a result of the loss of the stockpile "cushion".
The answer as to how long until this occurs, of course, no one really knows. I cannot imagine barring a major economical collapse in a short time scale that worldwide demand could drop enough to prevent this from happening.
This is what will be the death knell to the economy, as fuel limitations combined with rapidly rising prices disrupt the normal flow of business.
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
dohboi wrote:
"EVs will be introduced gradually"
Right, that's what I just said. Somehow you seem to find that comforting. Do you think oil depletion is going to happen at a nice, stready, gradual pace? It may, but the people in the field are saying that every trick in the book has already been used to lengthen the plateau, so now when it crashes, its going to crash fast and hard.
I don't see any indication it's going to crash fast and hard. While it certainly is profitable to insure some measure of conspicuous consumption, I doubt there would be any point to a "crash" in the sense that it has around these forums since profit would also "crash". That's not even looking at common sense limitations on oil production, eg refinery capacity, which for a company involved in oil has to be maximized in order to justify a decent ROI. Either oil production will plateau, or lots of new refineries would only operate for months maybe a few years.
Similarly, alternatives to most current oil use such as cycling, public transit, and more efficient vehicles like mopeds and the like present alternatives that are far less costly initially for consumers looking to enter those markets. Not to mention the dreaded "D" word in the US of A. The VMT is down in the states for the first time in three decades. No one knows what will happen, but given how people have behaved in the past I wonder if/when the rate decline in consumption will out pace the rate of decline in production and vice versa.
dohboi wrote:
Maybe it won't, but so far things have been developing faster than many on this forum thought they would. And this is about the doomiest crowd in town.
Compared to some on this forum, people over at TOD are downright realists, and even they come up w/ some pretty big numbers. At least we still have ~5 months to make up for lost pricing eh? _________________
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 6:15 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
When one brings up the decline in VMT, one then has to ask the following question: Does this number ever increase again? If it does, using what form of vehicle? Barring a rapid increase in mpg of vehicles available on dealership lots, more fuel efficient vehicles will not do it (i.e 30 vs 20 mpg is obviously not enough, just do that math. Assume both vehicles allow 300 miles driving distance. If I am replacing a 3 yr-old vehicle, it is still costing me 50% more to fuel my vehicle on $4 vs $2 gas. This fact combined with the amount of time it takes to turnover the automotive fleet, says that VMT wil continue to decline.
PHEV tech is clearly still not progressed to the point where a vehicle with a high enough driving range, capacity, and low enough cost has any plans to make it to the average showroom. Many will be unwilling to buy a vehicle that cannot make the 2 hour highway trip to the relatives OR costs >$50,000 dollars.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 6:45 am Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
yesplease wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:
medicvet wrote:
So what I want to know is HOW FAST is this projected to happen? Faster than we can drill new wells on the west and east coasts? Faster than we can put windmills and solar panels everywhere?
Yes, way faster. It takes 3 years to install a wind turbine generator. I do that for a living.
Do you mean construct/fabricate/transport/install, or just install like you said?
Yes, the entire cycle, from the day you "think" you found the site to Commercial Operation Date. Even if you doubled the tax incentive, eliminated interconnection hurdles, eliminated permits, mandated sharing of wind data, etc, it would still take 2 years. But that's so far fetched.
Revi wrote:
The average house uses around 800 gallons around here. That would be over $8000 just to heat the house. Fuggedaboudit!
People will heat their houses to 60F, bundle up, insulate more/better, do the snow-bird, give up their 300-channel TV, soda, cup cakes, etc. Life is a bitch, isn't it?
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) We are now at the stage of collecting information to fine tune our timeline of this event.
