Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 04, 2004 Posts: 2337 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:44 am Post subject:
I love how you guys say just move in and start this business and that one etc. Businesses take a lot of time, energy and capital. They are hard to run and even harder to make a living with. There is a reason why sucessful well established businesses go under. WAL-MART. there is no way you can buy the ingredients to make your homemade things cheaper than walmart or any already established business.
you want to make a difference? start supporting the little guys. the mom and pop stores, drive right by walmart and all those other chains. I don't care if they are small chains or not. its these little guys who will special order in your peak oil items like cast iron grills or dutch ovens.
its these small guys who will order in the borax you need to make your soaps. yes, it costs more but you are buying into the community. don't let any more of these guys go out of business. these guys are also the ones who will give you info and mentorship for the business you want to start. they will be more likely to accept a local currency or barter. its better if there are already established small businesses in your small town. make friends with them, they will be one of your biggest assets.
im choosing where to shop too, my town is a tourism economy
the canary in the coal mine here is the hotels
WalMart owns the mall, so they will be the last to go
there are several independent food stores here, and altho they cost more than safeway and walmart, they are locals
they will be here when the big guys leave town, the co-op is currently being run as a hippie health food store, but my conversations there indicate that most of the staff is aware of peak oil, if not in name, then surely in concept
when i ordered some herbs recently, the women who helped me with my order were very pleased by my request to find them locally if possibly and they did so
im still buying my can goods at safeway, because that makes sense for my household right now, but when they are gone i am building a network of supply right here as close to home as possible
about 10k, nice town
not enough jobs for any of these guys
there are greenhouses/nurseries all over the place, but i dont know who owns em, they look expensive to me..i dont expect em to be here when the trucks stop coming up
im bailing on this yard, and buying some land that can sustain me close by
it will probably have to be terraced too
My plan is to buy a piece of vialble land and build. Regardless of what type of structures and the materials used, and how I power it, one thing for certain is that I will have extra room for hired help. I make the initial investment in the systems, trade room and board for labor. Assuming a self sufficient energy system, as well as a complete diet grown on the land, There would be no actual expenses associated with the support of the hired help. They grow their own food. They also work off my farm, saving their money for their own farm. When they have the money saved, the get their own land and repeat the plan.
If the first wave in PJFs plan were to establish a large farm with self sufficient systems, and raised their own food, as well as work off the farm for income generation, they would have the chance to make first contact without raising any suspicion whatsoever. Do it with 1 farm, do it with 10 scattered about the area, whatever the means of the group can afford. Get the kids into school, join the PTA, attend town meetings.
The entire plan rests on the shoulders of the first group. Getting more investors and members depends on their success. Splintering the first group into duplicaties depends on their ability to earn, save, get by with little luxury. They would already be acting as a small scale buyers group. They would register to vote. The first group has the biggest investment and the hardest time. It is the pioneers that take the arrows. They are the group that develops the initial farm to a level that it will support them and create surplus. They have to buy all the tools and build the initial systems.
Once the first group is able to splinter, food, seed, livestock is already available. Compost is already available. Running water is already available. A workshop, greenhouse, buyers group, even job opportunities are already available. There is no need to purchase new tools for construction, they are already on hand. The mistakes have already been made, leadership is already in place. The only thing not available is self sufficient housing, which may be as simple as a camper. Wave#2 can descend on the town quietly in the night or slowly over the course of several weeks.
If done correctly, supplies are on hand, food in storage, food production capacity is already in place to support the 2nd wave. Another prerequisite for wave #2 is the need for more people to expand industry and commerce. Hidden in the 2nd wave is the investment and manpower needed to open a country store/farmers market, diner, repair shop, maybe even a lawn care service.
If you go with GG3s Adopt-A-Town plan, this fits in as part of that plan.
In order to better swing the local interest in the group's activities, do some things Wal-Mart will never do. Carry the local residents products in the country store, and order items they want specifically. Have a dairy farmer in the town, use his milk, sell his beef. It is much easier making a friend out of someone with a herd of cattle than it is to raise your own herd. Assimilate the community into the group this way. If someone already raises chickens, you raise turkeys or ducks. Already have a butcher, use his product to make sausage or sell it in the diner. A sizeable vegetable farm with a wide array of herbs and spices will be a rare find. This will likely be the market niche the group can exploit.
If you were to go with the hostile takeover plan, I expect the time in which success could occur would be 3-4 election cycles, at best. It is difficult to move into an area, show how badly the people have screwed up their town, and then seize control of the government. Whats the cliche about bears and honey? _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Okay, I had an epiphany today. The un-requested takeover isn’t the best course of action. As identified by Pops, CarlinsDarlin and now gg3, it can and will breed hostility among the local population. Overwhelming them in sheer numbers will not be enough—the hostility would still remain. Sure we could still take political control—but at what cost? Poisoned relationships can last a lifetime and remaining individuals could still make life miserable.
I kind of had a suspicion that this would be a problem with my original plans but wanted others to voice that concern.
Now, I believe the formal agreements need to be a two-way street. The small town has to welcome us in with full knowledge of the group’s plans, just as much as the members need to participate in the planning and implementation phases, which includes site selection
It’s not a take-over. We will not seize control of the political process.
It’s not an adoption. We are not adopting a community to restore and fix up. They are not adopting us as new residents with a variety of skills.
So what is it? Simply stated, it is a union between two groups-the community and the project group. Each party has to be aware of the details and be accepting of them.
Of course, the small town union label is less catchy.
Perhaps I will call it the Small Town Project to reflect the accurate fact that it is a project geared to many cities and groups,
In any case, I back off the earlier takeover comments. Not because I do not think they wont work or that the other efforts are not useful but because of the costs of lost communication and bitter feelings likely to be engendered. Now I am inclined to keep a lot of the planning efforts, but plan to disclose the full nature of this project upfront. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
I would not be so quick to dismiss the concept, but it would need to be done in the right way.
If a small group was to infiltrate a small town with the intention of taking control of the political process in order to best facilitate their plans for development, education becomes a powerful weapon.
The community you wish to develop is already in place. It will be necessary to change the wayof thinking of the population. This is not an overnight project, it will take several months before they get to know you, several years before you are able to build up a level of trust and acceptance. In the meantime, as things gradually progress with the global economy and energy situation, all the ideas that you speak of from time to time with the loals will come to fruition. Small towns usually have a greater air of independence, as a result, they are less tolerant of fools: people with no common sense.
Developing a relationship with a small community is done one on one. Attend the town meetings, but keep yur mouth shut for a while, until you have a feel for the mindset of the community. Use local services where it is practical. Patronize the local establishments. Draw from the local work force for hired help.
In the background, you raise your crops, chickens, pigs, rabbits. build your solar powered home. Have a nice crop of cucumbers, give some to your neighbor or to someone you have met a few times. You might look at this as bribery, and it is, but it is also effective.
Small communities are often supportive of each other. Fitting in means emulating the behavior of the group. it does not necessarily mean you have to subscribe to their way of thinking. They are people just like you, who have ideas and opinions. These ideas and opinions can be swayed, it just takes time. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11880 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 10:32 am Post subject:
Quote:
Fitting in means emulating the behavior of the group. it does not necessarily mean you have to subscribe to their way of thinking. They are people just like you, who have ideas and opinions.
This is sound advice. My husband and I could hardly be more different from our neighbors in our beliefs and "lifestyle" but we get along with them because we don't flaunt our weirdness in front of them. We aren't secretive but neither do we talk about politics or religion with them.
I now envision two parallel recruitment efforts as part of the overall planning process on this project.
NEW RESIDENTS
The first recruitment effort tries to round up as many individuals/families that wish to transition to a low-impact, low-energy sustainable lifestyle. The recruitment net must try and capture a wide collection of individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds. A number of professional skills will be sought, some of which are currently in existence, such as dentistry, carpentry or education as well as those professions that have fallen by the wayside such as truck farmer, food preservationist (old techniques) or blacksmithing. Some retraining will be provided, because there are modern professions will have no usefulness (car salesman??) to their new home and those folks will need something to do. Other professions will need a little adapting like farming. But the bottom line is the recruitment will identify all of the theoretical tasks and duties required in the new community.
Once interest exists, financial and time contributions are solicited. Things won’t happen by themselves so the future residents need to back the planning efforts with time, money and supplies. For argument’s sake I will put forward the organization that forms will be a communal organization that pools resources for the benefit of all. (Same organization establishes local currency as well). If you do not like this collectivist approach, fine. Suggest an alternative arrangement. By the way, if it isn’t already obvious, potential members would be well aware of the shared nature of their invested money. As soon as the group hits a critical mass of participants and funds, the plan springs into action. (Details on the action will be fleshed out in a later post along the lines of past discussion. This post is on recruitment!).
By the way, up until the group springs into action I would imagine an “dissolve clause” whereby if action fails to commence, all participants would be entitled to refunds of their investment—less a pre-established administrative charge. (Serious planning activity would require some full time planning activities, and those services would need to be paid for) Once the plan springs into action, that’s it, you’re involved. No backing out.
EXISTING TOWNSFOLK
At the same time to slightly after initial recruitment for participants, recruitment for a new destination town would commence. The planning group starts recruitment efforts by trying to locate a potential town by consensus (identifying preferred states, regions, areas) and beginning the research process. Prospective areas would be ranked by climate, geographical attractiveness, natural resources, proximity to major population centers, current economic conditions, legal frame work, prevailing political conditions and cultural amenities to name a few. Once a clear goal is established, possible cities and towns are formally contacted by the group and the case/project proposal is laid out in its entirety to local government officials, the political leadership and other community leaders.
VERY IMPORTANT: This step requires a very good pitchman or woman.
Once the case is laid out to the establishment, it needs formal discussion by ordinary citizens. In some states, this is actually mandated by pre-established environmental legislation while others may not formally require this. But in any case, as was noted by gg3, the plan—and the communal arrangements must receive a majority approval by local citizens.
Once both the new citizens and the town agree, the plan is put into effect.
I believe if the group representing the incoming people convincingly lays out the case, the townsfolk may be welcoming upfront. In any case, they will at least be informed. The sales pitch has to include the underlying reasons for such a radical course of action on part of the incoming residents as well as potential benefits for the existing townsfolk. Some states require the presentation of alternatives, so the discussion should include discussion of other arrangements and the impact to the town if they reject the incoming group’s proposal (a discussion of peak oil impacts to modern civilization). Done correctly and most people should leave satisfied. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2005 3:07 am Post subject:
Much better!
Much better to do things in the open, build friendships and trade relations rather than suddenly grab for power.
Re. "communal" vs. "free enterprise" solutions:
History seems to show the pattern that communism is often a useful first step along the way toward a free market. With that in mind, you can start with a communistic arrangement and deliberately plan for it to spin off enterprises that are owned by individuals and small groups of various kinds. Call it a "business incubator" if you will:-)
Re. tools & equipment sharing:
Be careful to establish qualifications for the use of each item. You would be surprised how quickly unskilled people can destroy tools, *and* not even know they're doing it. This is already enough of a problem with small hand tools, but all the more so for anything with a motor or engine in it.
Re. telling the established residents about PO:
Carefully, slowly, and with moderate scenarios first. Don't walk in and say "we're terrified that civilization is going to collapse, tyranny will be imposed, and we'll all die miserable deaths fighting off mutant zombies!" Better to say something like, "we're concerned about sustainability issues, and we want to build a robust local economy that will continue to prosper." Leave it there unless people ask, and then tell them without trying to scare them. Better to be deliberately understated and let people connect the dots on their own.
Okay, now that we have established that mutual agreement must exist between the new inhabitants and the existing townfolk before any actions commence, the next aspect of this discussion should be to figure out what criteria would be sought after in a prospective town.
Selection criteria could range from the vital (access to resources, proximity to population centers) to the superficial (aesthetics of current settlement).
Here are some suggestions:
Access to (potable) water - Is the community located near an adaquate source of water? Are water sources at risk in the event of civil unrest or climate change?
Proximity to large urban areas - How near are the major population centers to this location? How much "spillover" will likely occur in a crisis?
Existing Transportation Network - What is the community situated on? Interstate? Rail line? Harbor? What should the ideal town posess? If the town is located on a freeway or rail line with passenger service, how far away should it be located from an urban center? (to avoid spill over). Is it possible to be located in a community with too little access to the wider world?
Climate - What is the prevailing climate like? Are there any preferences? Are temparate/four season climates ideal? Mediterranean? Tropical? How about humidity? Drier or wetter? What about hurricanes?
Resources (Non-Biomass Fuel) - What types of fuel for energy are available? Are they renewable (hint: they should be renewable)? Are there renewable resources nearby that are as of yet untapped (think wind, wave, geothermal, hydro)-or are they already well tapped?
Resources (Biomass) - What grows naturally near the community? Is there an opportunity to utilize the plant matter for fuel in a sustainable manner?
Resources (Non-Fuel) - What else is of use nearby? Access to raw minerals (Aggregate, iron ore, limestone etc)? Access to recyclable materials (built or deposited man-made materials to be recycled-think trash dumps or suburban developments)
Population (density) - What is the region's population like? Are the rural population levels at a high level (Central Valley in CA)-moderate (Great lakes) or Low (Great Plains). Did the area support more people in pre-industrial times than now, or is it still growing?
Population (composition) - How about its racial/ethnic/religious/political composition? Diverse or homogenous? Open to outsiders or insular in nature? How about past changes? Is this area changing in composition already? How about yourself-are you okay with diversity or prefer you own kind?
Aesthetics - Does the area have natural beauty? Does the settlement have attractive architecture? Are unattractive elements alterable or are you stuck with them?
Food - Does this area have fertile soils? What kind of ag can the area support (bear in mind there are alternative forms of ag that do not require fertile soil. All do require an adaquate growing season though (see Climate).
Legal / Political Framework - How about the existing legal and political framework? Can the area work out arrangements such as have been described above. Can a willing city or town be over-ruled by an unfavorable county or state? If the community is currently UNINCORPORATED, can it be incorporated with additional population?
Existing Economics - Has this area seen better days only to have fallen on hard times? Have the areas always been poor? Or are things good now? What about the future?
THats about it for now... add if you can think of anything else. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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