Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Jsut what would the blockade do? Inspect every ship for items whcih couild contribute to a nuclear weapon?
Or, is the idea just to stangle imports in general from reaching Iran?
In either case, very ineffective. If push comes to shove, Iran can get nuclear materials overland. And, as long as Iran exports, it wil likewise import all kinds of goods.
Fighting Iran, if that is the outconme of an embargo, to provoke them, will be a monster battle.
I think its time for Isral and America to lay its cards on the table, define just what inexcusable actions Iran has done, to make a compelling issue worthy of a war. So far, my impression is that Iran, like some Christian fundamentalists of the west, sees the ultimate destiny of Israel its disappearance as a Jewish state. But, that is not the same thing as them saying they want to be the ones causing the disappearance.
Just what concrete evidence is there of Iran's plotting to destroy Israel? Or is the idea of a need for evidence considered just so 20th century these days?
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
DomusAlbion wrote:
The majority of the people of the region (those not in power) undoubtedly do not want this, however, the US is the current Hegemon in the area. This cannot be denied.
Well, I believe I just did. Rather than simply blowing your horn louder, why don't you try addressing the concrete points I made to back up my stand?
DomusAlbion wrote:
Furthermore the US (and I would think other Western powers) will do all it can to maintain that position as long as there is something there (i.e. oil) that it wants.
Japan stands to take a hit if the US dollar is undermined, because they've lent the US tons in recent years and they hold a lot of Yankee paper. And yet, when Iran told them they weren't taking that stuff anymore, and wanted yen instead, Japan took a month to consider the request and finally acquiesced. It was in their long term interests to do so, despite being best buds with the US and holding hundreds of billions of US dollars in cash, bonds, and other assets. The worm has turned. Not every country will sell oil in US dollars anymore (the standard since 1973), and even friends are having to face the realities of that. Consider this: even at the height of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran still denominated its oil in US dollars only. Not anymore, though. Think about that. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Apr 08, 2008 Posts: 115 Location: Montreal
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
The anti Iran Arab stance never goes past Colonial aided, supported, and funded govts, be it the Egyptian one or the Jordianian or the Saudi one. Those regimes are highly unpopular in the courts of the regional public opinion. What keeps them where they are is not their local legitimacy but foreign powers.
According to some recent poll the 3 most popular leaders in ME today are- Nasrullah, Assad, and Ahmadinejad. in that order.
Middle Easterners, like everyone else want whats good for them. There are currently two camps that have their respective prescriptions for the desired future of the region. They both promise same thing but propose completely different paths.
1-The Populist one, headed by Iran-Syria-Hezbollah camp, see a better future in achieving economic & political independence from the West. Thats why they are popular as its only natural. Hijab, women's rights, human rights, and monkey rights are not part of the real equation there at all. They are invention of MassMedia and for western consumers. This camp earn their legitimacy from the Islamic Republic or Hezbollah which are by far more efficient and useful to their people than Western installed repressive regimes- be it the Paskistani one or the Egyptian or the Saudi ones. The populist organizations are respected more and feared less, their leaders revered than hated.
2-The propagated pro colonialist ones are in absolute minority. They are mostly made up state (bureaucrats) employees and are detached from the greater public. They just dont want their paychecks to keep coming. Their prescription for the future of the region is to continue on Western tracks and with the status quo. Their organizations are spineless, corrupt, inefficient and irresponsible that are feared more than respected. Their leaders are liars and corrupt that care more about their own pockets than any real issue. They had some legitimacy prior to war on terror as the public saw some legitimacy in West/US. Not after the imposed war on terror.
During the pro independence movement in India there were those pro colonials as well. They used the same sorts of arguments and moral dilemmas. Majority prevailed because freedom is too sweet a fruit to consciously let go.
Joined: Apr 08, 2008 Posts: 115 Location: Montreal
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Denny wrote:
Jsut what would the blockade do? Inspect every ship for items whcih couild contribute to a nuclear weapon?
Or, is the idea just to stangle imports in general from reaching Iran?
In either case, very ineffective. If push comes to shove, Iran can get nuclear materials overland. And, as long as Iran exports, it wil likewise import all kinds of goods.
Fighting Iran, if that is the outconme of an embargo, to provoke them, will be a monster battle.
I think its time for Isral and America to lay its cards on the table, define just what inexcusable actions Iran has done, to make a compelling issue worthy of a war. So far, my impression is that Iran, like some Christian fundamentalists of the west, sees the ultimate destiny of Israel its disappearance as a Jewish state. But, that is not the same thing as them saying they want to be the ones causing the disappearance.
Just what concrete evidence is there of Iran's plotting to destroy Israel? Or is the idea of a need for evidence considered just so 20th century these days?
Israel, through this embargo, wants to kill the Iranian populist ideology that it sees as an existential threat than any pop bottle missile that Iran produces or might produce. Israel see fanatic organizations as Al Qaida or Hizb ul Tahrir as better enemies than rationalist organization like Hezbollah.
Israel has aligned its right to survive to regional chaos. They believe that the surrounding countries have to be mired in darkness and kept backwards for Israel to exist as a (Jewish) state. Its this irrational stance of Israel that Iranian govt and regional people are against. The rest is politics from both sides.
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1583 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
US intentions toward the Middle East and Iran in particular can be summarized by the following map of air bases: Hegemony is the word, at this point the US has it. The future will undoubtedly bring change, but what?
_________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
DomusAlbion wrote:
US intentions toward the Middle East and Iran in particular can be summarized by the following map of air bases: Hegemony is the word, at this point the US has it. The future will undoubtedly bring change, but what?
Given that the majority of those air bases exist not in willing, allied countries, but in the two nations currently subject to expensive, draining, and damning US military occupation, sapping the strength and resolve of a nation projected to have a $410 billion deficit this year, it's really not that hard to guess what the "what" will be.
As far as having "hegemony" goes, my, my, my... I see a whoooole lot of Russia, China, and Iran on that map... Interesting, too, that one of the declared US supporters, Georgia, is in fact partly occupied by Russian troops, isn't it? _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 5:13 am Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Quote:
Given that the majority of those air bases exist not in willing, allied countries, but in the two nations currently subject to expensive, draining, and damning US military occupation, sapping the strength and resolve of a nation projected to have a $410 billion deficit this year, it's really not that hard to guess what the "what" will be.
You're on a PEAK OIL site trying to claim that America's building of military bases within driving distance of 75% of the world's remaining oil, just a few years before oil is set to shoot up to ridiculously unaffordable prices, is "sapping our strength". I suppose we'd be stronger without all those tens of billions of barrels of oil, each the equivalent of 23 thousand man hours of labor. Yah
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
kam3Oen wrote:
You're on a PEAK OIL site trying to claim that America's building of military bases within driving distance of 75% of the world's remaining oil, just a few years before oil is set to shoot up to ridiculously unaffordable prices, is "sapping our strength". I suppose we'd be stronger without all those tens of billions of barrels of oil, each the equivalent of 23 thousand man hours of labor. Yah
Well, the Chinese seem to be doing alright getting what they want out of the world without shooting it up, bringing its boys home in boxes by the score, or spiraling into debt their great-grandchildren would still be paying for if not another penny was added. AND all the while, paying a good chunk of the freight for you to do those things. Draw your own conclusions. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Nickel wrote:
Well, the Chinese seem to be doing alright getting what they want out of the world without shooting it up, bringing its boys home in boxes by the score,
China is right there. They don't need an extra territorial base in order to launch quick reaction military operations into the mideast at will. Two hours and the skies over Tehran could be filled with PRC aircraft.
Quote:
or spiraling into debt their great-grandchildren would still be paying for if not another penny was added.
No one's great grandchildren will be paying off anything. You're on the wrong site for that sort of rhetoric. They're going to be too busy praying the thunderstorm over the hill doesn't kill their corn crop before its ready to harvest. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:11 am Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
AgentR wrote:
China is right there. They don't need an extra territorial base in order to launch quick reaction military operations into the mideast at will.
They don't need to launch quick reaction military operations into the mideast, period. The PLA stays at home and yet they still seem to be able to drink all the oil they want. Funny that, huh?
AgentR wrote:
No one's great grandchildren will be paying off anything. You're on the wrong site for that sort of rhetoric. They're going to be too busy praying the thunderstorm over the hill doesn't kill their corn crop before its ready to harvest.
How do you figure that? What, the US is just going to nuke anybody who comes knocking, wanting a corporation or a building or a land tract or port facility for the tons of pretty promissory paper you've plied them with now for generations? Gee, I wonder why the Russians didn't think of that when it was their turn to eat humble pie.
How long do you suppose the US dollar would remain in circulation and freely convertible if everyone else in the world finally understood it was like being paid a handful of plucked grass for a Toyota?
Now you may hope for the end of the world before then, but the rest of the world's operating on the idea that it's going to persist in some form, and it might be prudent to at least make provisions for the fact that it just might. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Nickel wrote:
How long do you suppose the US dollar would remain in circulation and freely convertible if everyone else in the world finally understood it was like being paid a handful of plucked grass for a Toyota?
I don't expect it will be freely convertible into anything of value. None of those buildings, land, resources, etc have a fixed dollar value; they are worth what a willing buyer *AND* a willing seller agree upon. If the willing sellers, are only willing... to sell their bushel of corn for 500 trillion dollars, then that is what 500 trillion dollars is worth.
Example to excess perhaps, but it makes my point; if the trillions and trillions of dollars that are loose overseas come back to US territory, looking to buy something tangible here; the inevitable result is that the price of those items rises to meet the available supply of currency.
Quote:
Now you may hope for the end of the world before then, but the rest of the world's operating on the idea that it's going to persist in some form, and it might be prudent to at least make provisions for the fact that it just might.
Hope is the wrong word. I just don't see how the conclusion is avoidable.
1) Our foreign debt is denominated in US dollars.
2) The debt vastly exceeds our ability to pay it back in current dollars.
3) The debt is increasing, rapidly. Not decreasing.
Now, whether the coming devaluation is done gradually (as I believe it currently is being done), or whether the congress (the ones in ultimately in charge of the currency), says "sorry folks, we goofed. So to fix it, we are doing a 1000 to 1 devaluation of the currency. New dollarettes will be available at your bank tomorrow.
Seeing as how our congress couldn't do anything definitive if its life depended on it; I stick with the first method; the supply of dollars will gradually but purposefully be pumped up at a high rate; and symptoms such as rapidly increasing prices of oil or other importables will be lamented and blamed on something else. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
AgentR wrote:
Example to excess perhaps, but it makes my point; if the trillions and trillions of dollars that are loose overseas come back to US territory, looking to buy something tangible here; the inevitable result is that the price of those items rises to meet the available supply of currency.
Yeah, or somebody buys Manhattan for 24 euros.
AgentR wrote:
1) Our foreign debt is denominated in US dollars.
That's what everybody holds. It's what they get when they redeem them that's at issue. And it's the growing realization that, as you pointed out, it's bound to be less and less that's limiting the horizons of the US, financially, diplomatically, and ultimately militarily.
AgentR wrote:
Now, whether the coming devaluation is done gradually (as I believe it currently is being done), or whether the congress (the ones in ultimately in charge of the currency), says "sorry folks, we goofed. So to fix it, we are doing a 1000 to 1 devaluation of the currency. New dollarettes will be available at your bank tomorrow.
All that really does is move the decimal ahead; the worth represented by a dollarette coming from 1000 is still the same, at least at the moment of conversion. It's not like it cuts the debt any... just saves ink printing zeros. It also lowers the bar psychologically for inflation.
If, of course, you are talking about the US refusing to honour its debt, except to the tune of 0.1%, then again, you're effectively resigning from the world economy, unless you adopt a currency controlled by someone reputable. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
Nickel wrote:
Yeah, or somebody buys Manhattan for 24 euros.
Not likely, or at least, not unless 24 Euros can purchase the sustained productivity (ag and fishing) of that Island (devoid of its current infrastructure). Its more likely that the value in Euro's would remain approximately as is (at least while world trade is relevant) , and the conversion rate would be on the order of 1 Euro = 1000 dollars.
Quote:
you're effectively resigning from the world economy, unless you adopt a currency controlled by someone reputable.
PO.com... There's not going to be a world economy worth spit to resign from. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1126 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: Israel proposes naval blockade of Iran
AgentR wrote:
PO.com... There's not going to be a world economy worth spit to resign from.
I remember reading an article from the late 1800s alerting people to the dangers inherent in New York's growth... that, among other things, it listed an impressive number for the depth of horse manure that would fill its streets by the middle of the 20th century. Surely distressingly inevitable from the perspective of, say, General-cum-President Ulysses S. Grant as he passed from this world. But the concerns of New York City were a little different by the time the country was under the administration of General-cum-President Dwight David Eisenhower.
There's no doubt in my mind that the transition from petroleum to less convenient forms of energy is going to be problematic and expensive, or that standards of living are going to suffer. But I also don't doubt that those changes will come, barring an apocalyptic war. I think that crawling with the other cultists into the cave and waiting for God to summon the righteous to Judgement is not the way to solve the issues that face us. If anything, it exacerbates them because it contributes nothing to the effort -- an effort we owe to posterity -- and it encourages the waste of what remains in the face of a future deemed non-existent. I think it's reckless to live life assuming the collapse of global civilization as opposed to its transformation into a new configuration, albeit one not entirely to our own preferences. It's the choices we make now that are going to shape that outcome. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
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