Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Dude et al,
Here's a very current bit of news that came across one of my oil patch web sites....haven't seen it elsewhere...yet:
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has arrested 701 Islamists in recent months who it claims were preparing attacks on oil industry installations, the interior ministry said on Wednesday.
Security forces "carried out several operations against followers of the deviant ideology and arrested a total of 701 people of various nationalities," said a ministry spokesman quoted by the official Spa news agency.
Of those arrested, "520 are still being held for their implication in the organisational and ideological plans of the deviant ideology."
Deviant ideology is the term used by Saudi officials to describe Al-Qaeda.
Just one more thought to run through your mind while staring at the ceiling tonight....suddenly the inventories don't look very big at all. Perhaps it's best we assume they caught all the bad guys.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2472 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Heh, Deviant idealogy! Thats a good one.
It's just not going to take much longer before they figure out how to really hurt us. With all the news about how critical oil and it's price are becoming, it's really just a matter of time.
I've been thinking about this for a while Rock, a while. It seems it would be very easy to hit infrastructure here in the states.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
As well as maintaining stocks at lower levels these days, we seem more prone to letting inventory slide for longer periods - the early years show more micro-adjustments.
Another issue is the "number of days' consumption". Consumption is abou 15% higher now than it was at the time, but overall volume in inventory is lower.
This probably amounts to only a couple of days, maybe 20 days consumption in inventory now versus 22-24 10 years ago, but your point is quite correct: The inventory system is now more sensitive to any kind of disruption that might happen.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
So true flyboy....100's of thousands of easy targets. But I think that's our greatest protection. Ignoring the shock wave that would run through society, in truth, it wouldn't have a real material impact. As horrible as the WTC collapse was and the great loss of life, drunk drivers killed 3X as many folks the same year. That's not meant to minimize the personal loss so many more thousands endured, but there was very little practical negatve impact other than scaring the hell out of us all.
Our infrastructure is so great and dispersed they really can't do us much material harm here on our own soil. But knock out oil imports for a month...that's another matter.
I was always puzzled by the EIA including the days in inventory stat - who utilizes that? It's really alarming to look at, more like something you'd see on the front page of LATOC. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:48 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Everything is on track in the last weekly IEA reports, except for the crude imports.
I am a little surprised by the last 2 values, since they were significantly above my expectations.
However, I would be more surprised if I had not come to accept that these values are extremely difficult to predict.
I believe much of that difficulty is due to this: The values announced as weekly imports seem to include a strange component to adjust to newly available corrected values of inventory reports.
An example:
Let’s suppose that last week’s commercial crude oil inventories were announced as 306.0 Mb.
If the EIA data bugs receive better information and have to correct the previous week commercial crude stocks upwards by, say, 3.5 Mb (that is, to 309.5 Mb), they don’t have many adjustment mechanisms...
The announced (previous week) value is never changed/corrected in that week’s WPSR. That is, the wrong value is still used as a base to the change in inventory for the following week (in this example, the present week).
So, if they calculate the present week stocks as, say 306.0 Mb (the same value that was announced in the previous WPSR), the correcting mechanism is to consider that this week’s imports were 0.5 Mb/d bellow the crude inputs to the refineries…
In summary, I believe that the reported weekly imports are not the direct result of their better estimate for the actual imports, but a mix of that and of a correcting factor for previous reports' errors.
This approach allows the seamless correction of previous misreporting, but it results in reported import values that do not necessarily represent the real week’s imports…
In the present case, I believe that the increased “imports” reported for the last 2 weeks are partially due to downward revisions of previously reported crude stocks…
That would leave the real weekly imports closer to my prediction of 9.8 Mb/d.
However, it is also possible that a part of the announced 300 kB/d increase in the production of S. Arabia some 4 to 6 weeks ago is now filtering to the US…
Also, the small recovery of Mexico’s production in the last month can have helped with the last 2 week’s imports.
Overall, I would prefer to adjust my prediction of present imports to some 9.9 to 10 Mb/d.
This value should now be the average for the last 2-3 weeks, and will probably be maintained until the recent reduction in Nigeria’s production reaches the US (some 2 weeks from now…).
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
UncoveringTruths wrote:
I will reiterate fuel consumption is up 15.4% in Mexico. It would be interesting to find out how much of the demand is at the border.
The President of Mexico has set aside 20 billion for subsidizing Mexico's fuel.
Quote:
Pemex indicated that in January through May of this year the volume of imports of petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas increased 15.4 per cent, going from 438,200 barrels per day to 505,500 barrels per day.
The increase was due mainly to higher gasoline purchases, which went from 281,100 barrels per day in the first five months of last year to 323,300 barrels in the same period of 2008.
MEXICO CITY, June 24 (Reuters) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon vowed on Tuesday to maintain fuel subsidies meant to blunt the effect of inflation on consumers, despite mounting costs as oil prices soar.
Subsidies on gasoline, diesel and domestic gas have helped keep inflation lower in Mexico than in most Latin American countries, but surging crude prices mean the program will cost the government close to $20 billion this year.
"I know there are people ... who don't understand or who urge us to hike prices, and we are not going to do it because we want to protect the poorest families," Calderon said in a speech in Mexico's Caribbean state of Quintana Roo.
I'm working on a little algorithm trying to predict the unleaded production, distillate production and refinery inputs using the refinery utilization and the current ratio of unleaded to distillate production (the product mix).
At this point, the distillate production is about 50.5% of the unleaded production, and given the assumption that the refinery utilization will be about 89%, and knowing the crude oil inputs at about that level of refinery utilization, it back works to about 15.3 mbpd.
Anyhow after all of that, the key thing is the continued low level of refinery production, and there is no reason to believe that this will change this week. I usually guess the production pretty close anyway.
The chronic problem we have is trying to forecast the crude oil and unleaded imports. I still say the solution to this problem is to hire some young interns in bikinis to hang out near the unloading facilities and report back what the activity is, but since this is a low budget operation, we will have to be content with an eyeball guess, and since I am tired of being wrong, I will go with something around 10 for crude oil, and 1.2 for unleaded. I inspected the vesseltrax map last night and saw about 13 tankers in the gulf, so there is no big buildup in Houston.
The distillate usage balance has been slightly higher than the "products supplied" for the last couple of weeks, but last year, there was a decrease in distillate usage around July 4th, and I have estimated the same thing this year. The adjusted model we are using for unleaded demand has been pretty close, for some guy on the internet.
So, about even in unleaded and crude oil, and a build in distillates this week.
I have been personally monitoring the Gulf of Mexico surface temperatures this week. So far, no abnormal readings.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4460 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Nat Gas is $13.44... People up here are oblivious to the fact that the price has DOUBLED since last winter. It is going to be an ugly Christmas. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4383 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:03 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
frankthetank wrote:
Nat Gas is $13.44... People up here are oblivious to the fact that the price has DOUBLED since last winter. It is going to be an ugly Christmas.
I heard last week. Living in the big city I have little choice. I may be forced out into the woods soon where I can burn up the forests. Besides, these association fee's suck anyways. I'm looking at a full log (white pine) place next week by Walker MN on 2.5 aces. It's a small "high tech" cabin with off peak in-floor heating. Add a wood stove and I bet I could get by on 5 cords a winter. It's been for sale two years now. They wanted $198,000 in 2006 an now it's down to $150,000. I bet she could be had for $120,000. Maybe even less?
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. crude-oil inventories probably fell 700,000 barrels last week from 301.8 million barrels, according to the median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. It would be the sixth decline in seven weeks.
Gasoline supplies probably rose by 500,000 barrels from 208.8 million barrels.
"Any kind of neutral-to-bullish numbers means the market has enough strength to continue to $150 a barrel in crude oil,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 338 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
vision-master wrote:
They wanted $198,000 in 2006 an now it's down to $150,000. I bet she could be had for $120,000. Maybe even less?
It's a buyers market. The only way is down. Haggle like an Egyptian on crack. Laugh in their faces and walk away a few times. Don't be in any hurry. You should get a very reasonable price.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:32 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Analysts expect oil stockpiles fell last week by 1.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill (nyse: MHP - news - people ) Cos. For the week ended June 20, crude-oil inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, or 0.3 percent, to 301.8 million barrels, which were 14.4 percent below year-ago levels.
Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 100,000 barrels to 208.8 million barrels, which were 2.3 percent above year-ago levels. Analysts expect stockpiles of the motor fuel fell by 500,000 barrels last week.
Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended June 20 was 2.1 percent lower than a year earlier, averaging nearly 9.3 million barrels a day.
At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 88.6 percent of total capacity on average, a drop of 0.7 percentage point from the prior week. Analysts expect capacity rose by 0.5 percentage point last week.
Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.8 million barrels to 119.4 million barrels for the week ended June 20. Analysts expect distillate stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels last week.
The U.S. Energy Department will probably say crude inventories, 6 percent below the five-year average, fell 700,000 barrels last week from 301.8 million barrels, according to a survey of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News
Quote:
Gasoline supplies probably rose 500,000 barrels from 208.8 million barrels, according to Bloomberg's survey
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