Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 11:03 am Post subject: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
The past 2 years at peakoil.com have seen a number of significant developments as we begin experiencing the first symptoms of oil depletion. Oil prices have risen dramatically during this period and we have seen the spread of this inflationary pressure into the most vulnerable markets and countries first, as one would expect. Agricultural products have begun their relentless march skyward as fuel-sensitive crops absorb higher fuel costs. Crops which can also be used as transport fuels have risen the most (corn etc...), but all produce and livestock products have outpaced overall inflation.
Oil production globally has been flat for almost the entire 2 years. Even with oil prices sky high at never before seen prices, no large production increases have materialized. It has become increasingly clear that the reason producers cannot ramp up production is because they simply don't have the supplies or infrastructure to pump more oil. Shale & Tar Sand projects have become profit centers. Super deep water fields become economically viable. Algae, Bio-Diesel, CTL. Surely the advent of these exotic technologies confirms that conventional crude oil has peaked in production and is beginning it's inevitable decline.
The mainstream media has also begun publishing about Peak Oil and depletion topics. What was “fringe” news before is suddenly legitimate front page news (ala The Wall Street Journal); among many notable others. So congratulations to our members and all the other people who helped make this awareness a reality. The job is not done by any measure, but it is where it is today in part, because of the interest & efforts of this web community. You have all earned a really big “I told you so...” moment with the whole world.
I recall Dr. Bakhitari correctly predicting $50/bbl oil, and the shocked impression that left on the oil analyst community. He was humble & polite in his email correspondence as always, even while the world stood speechless in the shadow of $50 oil. Special recognition is due this courageous man who educated and advocated for Peak Oil until the day he died. It is more than a little disconcerting telling this story now, with oil prices at historic highs.
A special note of thanks to our volunteer staff for all their efforts. We literally could not do this without you. You all make this place what it is, and for that I thank each of you.
We look forward to serving this community as we continue the journey down Hubbert's Peak in the coming years. Mother nature may very well have the last laugh on mankind... but it won't be because we stopped trying to spread the word.
Regards everyone,
Aaron Dunlap
Now... for some juicy statistics.
You will find us on the first page searching Google for Oil News. (http://www.google.com/search?q=oil+news&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS232US232)
You will also find us on the first page Googling for “oil”. (http://www.google.com/search?q=oil+news&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS232US232)
According to Google, you people have made PeakOil.com one of the most important resources on the web for understanding oil and current energy events.
Well done.
In links (69,600) (websites linking PeakOil.com)
Alexa Rank Peakoil.com has a traffic rank of: 133,432
Statistics:
Over 4 million visits.
Over 1 million unique visitors.
Over 22 million pages served.
An average of over 5 pages per visit, and around a 30% bounce rate. Almost 9 minutes average time on the site per visit.
We signed up 6,100 new members & had almost 13,000 news story submissions.
4,044,659 visits came from 217 countries/territories
United States
2,395,774
Canada
339,885
United Kingdom
279,224
Australia
130,765
Netherlands
90,918
Sweden
74,759
Germany
68,405
New Zealand
64,196
France
56,688
Finland
56,612
4,044,659 visits came from 17,480 cities
(not set)
347,058
London
83,473
New York
58,295
Tempe
52,173
Seattle
42,322
Chicago
40,963
Sydney
40,368
Toronto
40,148
Houston
37,781
Auckland
37,324
We have assembled an impressive on line resource base with many useful and interesting tools and knowledge base applications.
http://www.peakoil.com/journal.html _________________ "We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
I got into the whole thing by noticing a article in the toronto star while buying groceries. It was about the video end of suberbia and looking up peak oil on google landed me here. Going to make a real effort to get some gardening practice this year as things are starting to get bad now, for us in the 1st world countries anyway.
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
I was driving home from a wedding as Katrina was hitting NOLA. I knew of the ports and knew gas would spike soon. My imagination wandered, and I imagined a future without oil, and traveling down that same road on horseback. A couple days later, only out of curiousity and boredom, I remembered my fantasy, and I googled "how much oil is left?"... ... ... and then i joined the forums.
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
Upgrade the server. Speed up connections. Spice up the features. Keep the backward compatibility for slow users. Some threads are so slow than others. Why?
That's all we can ask for.
And oh, we need a nicer admins who don't stay behind the curtains. _________________ "Panic is not a strategy." - BigTex
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
Last_Laff wrote:
Upgrade the server. Speed up connections. Spice up the features. Keep the backward compatibility for slow users. Some threads are so slow than others. Why?
That's all we can ask for.
And oh, we need a nicer admins who don't stay behind the curtains.
Doing our best.
You can't mean me though... I mean I do have almost 6000 posts here after all. _________________ "We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
4 years and 15 days officially.
And not done harpin' on Doing For The Future yet!
Why I 'member when my stats said I had posted 20-30% of the total on the site - just trolling for Peakers so the site wouldn't die like some others I had seen. In fact I'd like to hear who else was posting back then, lots of us posted as guests, I know A., Pup and Matt were [posting then].
Aside from all the members who add their experience and research daily and the volunteers who try to keep us relatively in line, special thanks to Dan, Aaron, Shanny, and MD who have done a great job of keeping the site up and running. I have no idea about nuts and bolts but I do know there have been significant growing pains in the server/feature/hacker areas.
It is great to have a knowledge rich site with only one little Google ad window.
I was wondering when the site actually went live? I found post #5 from 3/9/04... _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5787 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
It's hard for me to admit this, but PO.com has become a pretty important part of my existence. It's a touchstone for me. I visit almost every day, and have done so for almost four years now (including a few months of lurking).
All of the horrible events I've feared continue to gather shape and momentum.
I cannot remember a time in my life (which goes back 52 years) when the outlook was worse.
I obtain some comfort from commiserating with sane, brilliant people here who see things as they are, and will be.
Deep thanks to the administrators and moderators (including the few I disagree with) for all they do to keep my "touchstone" intact.
Happy four-year "birthday," Aaron. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
I picked three years though technically today is two years 355 days.
Keep up the good work! I hope and pray this all turns out better than I expect it too!
As I have mentioned now and then I found this site while researching an article on Bio-diesel I was writing for a Ezine. Shockingly enough it will be out in hardcover this June for anyone interested in how much I screwed it up three years ago. Amazon Link
I hope this doesn't come accross as SPAM, I am just excited about finally acheiving dead tree status! _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
BigTex wrote:
...you see, people can talk doom anywhere. They come to peakoil.com for the attitude and the atmosphere.
It's all about the flare. _________________ "We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: Re: The Past 2 Years @ PeakOIl.com
It has been good times on here for about 4 years!
The whole time has been very, very interesting. I still truly believe that the vast majority of posters on here need medication. To check this place on a daily basis so you can commiserate about the tremendous horror that is sure to be upon us - I'm just not sure it's healthy. But hey, everybody has their own idea of a good time.
With that being said, I think this forum has provided me with solid information and a deeper understand of the issue at hand. Despite my opinions regarding people's response to this issue, I think there knowledge of the actual issue is tremendous. I have made a killing in the energy sector thanks largely to what I learned here, and I'm trust me I'm no investment genius. You guys have given me a very valuable perspective on the current state of things and I truly appreciate that.
For me, this place is kind of gem with a lot of crap all over it. If you can brush off the crap, there is a ton of value here.
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I recall Dr. Bakhitari correctly predicting $50/bbl oil, and the shocked impression that left on the oil analyst community. He was humble & polite in his email correspondence as always, even while the world stood speechless in the shadow of $50 oil. Special recognition is due this courageous man who educated and advocated for Peak Oil until the day he died. It is more than a little disconcerting telling this story now, with oil prices at historic highs.
