Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1971 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 5:17 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
The program for mitigating peak oil is not that hard, just think direct action in the form of a crash course in smartely done alternative sources, plenty of information about relocalization so that food can start being shipped no further than say 200 miles. Massive lifestyle changes to increase efficiency Powerdown to zero is an apocalypse anyway you slice it, wrath of God or no.
That sounds hard to me when a lot of the economy is based on not doing what you say would be needed. I don't think we need to kid ourselves that the way forward will ever be easy, under any circumstances. However, I think it's better to do what is necessary (whatever that is), in a planned way, rather than in a reactive and chaotic way. But it will be harder for some than for others.
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
TonyPrep wrote:
Do you think anyone is even considering any detrimental effects of harnessing a whole lot of wind power? Do you think the mix of species that has arisen, and how the environment is carved out in an area dominated by wind might be affected by diverting part of the wind to other uses? I don't know, but I think it might. Those who look for just energy solutions tend not to consider the environmental, or other impacts.
On scales of this magnitude, you can't really know the answer until after the deed is done. And usually several decades after the deed is done at that. We could spend the next 5 decades studying the possible environmental effects of harnessing a large share of the wind's power, with trillions of dollars dedicated to this monumental study, and still end up with a model that has predications that are completely wrong with actual empirical evidence. I'm asking the question about the environmental impacts, but the answer is not there. And I don't think the answer will be there until the system has been in place(on the scale we are talking about) and operating for a considerable amount of time, all the while taking detailed readings about planetary weather and such forth. Even then it is hard to isolate what effects are caused by actual wind harnessing, vs. effects caused by natural cycles, and/or other activities of mankind. I don't think an adequate answer could ever be given for this question beforehand. Even after the fact its difficult to get a grip on. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1971 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
If you paint the situation correctly then I'm not sure we should risk that particular solution, unless the experiment is very limited, so that the effects can be monitored, before large scale use is contemplated. That begs the question of whether large scale use might have severe impacts that can't be determined from a limited experiment.
So should we take further risks with our habitat, or should we aim to power down and get to the lowest level of resource use that is feasible? We can't live without impacts, nor should we try, but we must try to ensure that those impacts don't severely affect our own lives, or those of our descendants.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Thinking on possible environmental disruptions caused by harnessing large amounts of wind energy with turbines is an interesting concept.
I have to think that large scale global deforestation has freed up a great deal of wind energy in the past few thousand years that had once been captured by the forests.
If anything large numbers of turbines would only go a small way back to whatever normal wind was back before agriculture.
One only has to be walking in a large field or along a lake on a windy day and walk into the woods a short distance to see the effect of trees on wind. In Labrador the wind blew almost constantly and getting out of it was a relief. It was so noticeable that we called the edge of spruce along the lakes and rivers "wind eaters".
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
The increased strain on the grid only happens if we decide to, instead of charging out EVs when we're asleep, all decide to do it over the space of a couple hours at say... 3-5PM, since we enjoy wasting time and infrastructure. It's as or less likely as everyone in some area going to get gas over the same minute during the day.
We don't need to do it all at the same time for there to be a problem. Even if it is feasible for everyone to do it at night (different people work and play in different ways and drive different amounts) that would still put a strain on the grid. Having the grid run at constant peak load is not something it was designed to do, nor is it capable of doing it.
It's not constant peak load, or even close. Given battery costs, PHEVs would have to be fairly efficient, or the commutes of their users fairly small, in order to be viable, which consequently places a relatively small draw on the grid. The only way we could max out the grid using off-peak charging would be to power every single vehicle now on the road with a pack that would allow similar driving distances, at hundreds of thousands of dollars per vehicle. There's just no way we could strain the grid by charging off-peak given economic constraints regarding electric vehicle design.
TonyPrep wrote:
I once read a well argued calculation, I think it was on The Oil Drum, that the capacity of the grid would need to increase by at least a third, just to cope with everyone charging their cars at night.
Link? The only way I've seen calculations like this are via pie in the sky assumptions about battery costs/owner income. We simply can't afford enough in the way of batteries to put a significant strain on the grid assuming reasonable charging.
TonyPrep wrote:
However, every car owner/driver won't, or won't be able to, charge only at night. So a larger increase in capacity would be needed.
So... They're going to go where at night? For those who do lots of traveling and need range greater than ~100 miles, there's no point to getting an EV. For those that have an EV and want to travel farther than ~100 miles, there are rental cars. I don't see how we would need anything other than marginally larger grid capacity given likely constraints. _________________
Professor Membrane wrote:
Not now son! I'm making...TOAST!
Last edited by yesplease on Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
How would you make consumers aware, when additional wind power is available?
It may be literally at any time.
They could sleep this time, they could work, they could be away.
The same way yer postin'. The internetz. The whole point of networked appliances would be to allow more control over demand side stuff, ie demand side management. If they couldn't manage demand, it wouldn't be demand side management. Clearly within reasonable bounds, since I don't want the fridge turned off for a day, but I don't really care when during the night my fridge compressor cycles, dishwasher or washer run, etc... As long as they do, especially if I can save money doing it.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
RE. solar thermal:
Applicable only in hot countries. California or Spain could benefit of it, but UK or Germany - I doubt very much.
California's a state. Granted, it's favorable in areas with lots of sun and cheap land compared to areas with less sun and more expensive land, but given the externalities associated with fossil fuels, based on what I've read even if large scale projects don't see the .6-.10$/kWh cost over the life of the facility that's supposedly available in the desert, they still may be economically viable in areas with more expensive land and less energy/m^2 compared to fossil fuels. Compared to fission, it depends on regional policies/expertise. That being said, they aren't very popular because they need lots of time to amortize costs, so if over their lifespan some cheaper thin-film/battery combo, or widespread adoption of cheaper fission, or something else cheaper, takes place, then their owners wouldn't recoup costs nearly as quickly. _________________
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Heineken wrote:
My days as a doomer will be over when doom takes me.
Yep. No matter what solution is offered, theres still pessimism. Eventually we'll die of old age and we'll be prophesizing the end of civilization just a couple more years out.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:59 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Many people will be gone from this earth by 2012. Their souls will be in some other body somewhere in the universe. The people that are left will have to live simple. Might as well start now, or get ready to hit the rocks at the bottom of the cliff.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1971 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:12 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
yesplease wrote:
So... They're going to go where at night? For those who do lots of traveling and need range greater than ~100 miles, there's no point to getting an EV. For those that have an EV and want to travel farther than ~100 miles, there are rental cars. I don't see how we would need anything other than marginally larger grid capacity given likely constraints.
I'm not sure why you ask the first question. The US covers at least 4 time zones. That alone extends daytime travel and electricity use. Work and leisure goes on round the clock and long journeys are common (same here).
I still can't find that TheOilDrum post but I remember looking at this report (PDF) a few months ago: IMPACTS ASSESSMENT OF PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES ON ELECTRIC UTILITIES. Though it was generally positive on the ability of the present grid to cope with PHEVs (not all-electric vehicles), it's pertinent to point out that the study concluded that 73% of the light duty vehicle fleet, as PHEVs, could be serviced by the current grid if they were charged in off-peak hours. This implies that for PHEVs a significant increase in capacity would be needed to cope with 100% of the LDV fleet. Even then it raises concerns about running at heavy load for long periods, though the report thinks those concerns could be alleviated to some degree. Remember that this is PHEVs (with an electric only range of 33 miles, I think), not fully electric vehicles and not all internal combustion engines.
I think the point is moot, to some extent, because it will take a long time (possibly decades) to move to mainly PHEVs and, by then, fuel savings may be overtaken by oil production declines, so a further move to all-electric may be needed putting a strain on the grid that it may not be able to take (if it had not already succumbed to 100% PHEVs).
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
I wonder how much of grid load could be freed up just by switching from incandescents to CFLs and other technologies? I think it's substantial but can't find a figure. _________________ The shovel with a wheel - The Wovel.
http://wovel.com/
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6089 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Haven't you heard? CFLs are loaded with deadly mercury. Drop one and your house becomes contaminated. To say nothing of the environment when the dead ones get thrown out.
The electricity that is saved just gets used elsewhere to keep the growth juggernaut moving. Jevon's paradox. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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