How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 9:54 pm Post subject: how will the Empire die?
Provided that it is a given fact, that the US Empire dies, will the process be a peaceful contracting or an explosion of war?
What will happen before the elections or will everything happen after the elections?
No one of the candidates seems to me very promising for managing future foreign politics, but does it make any difference which candidate will win?
There are so many conflicts looming in which war will they run next?
Joined: Oct 04, 2007 Posts: 205 Location: Pskov, Russia
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:16 am Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
ohanian wrote:
It would be a very slow and steady death
agonizingly excrutiatingly unbearably slow
if your waiting for post-peak excitement i would seriously consider moving to a poorer country; they will see the fun times years before we will, decades maybe (the poorest are already basking in the glory of post-peak apocalypse) _________________ Tyler_JC:
"I love how every conversation on this website, given enough time, will turn into a discussion of cannibalism."
““Life is on the wire…the rest is just waiting””
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:28 am Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
Quote:
It would be a very slow and steady death
Quote:
Not with a bang but a whimper.
I, too, count myself among the "thousand cuts" school.
Not that this won't be dramatic, mind you.
Quote:
if your waiting for post-peak excitement i would seriously consider moving to a poorer country
oh, there will be plenty of "fun" here. And: it doesn't matter if you move or not. It could very well be catastophic overseas.
As an American, I feel like the caretaker of a dying parent.
that's enough. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:42 am Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
A few scattered thoughts:
The British superpower's decline was actually rapid and violent. After WWII, it is true that the transition of power to America was peaceful, but that is because the war itself depleted and indebted Britain, as well as most of the continent. Prior to the the first WWI, when the two countries were more equal, America had very serious plans to fight the UK, including contingency plans to overrun British-controlled Canada. That may have been the story of the 20th century, if the Germans hadn't existed to threaten British hegemony (and the US with the Nazi upsurge in Latin America).
How the US will decline will depend very much on a whole host of unpredicatble factors. As we approach chaos and tipping points, individual decisions really start to matter. Leaders and policies and crises become much more important.
So it could go in numerous directions. However, the historical lesson is that empires generally do not go out without some kind of a bang.
A lot depends on the culture of the empire too. Specifically, the one hope that the empire might 'die' peacefully would be if the social power of immigrants and women, who are generally more anti-war, continues to grow, and feel politically mobilised.
The Revolution in Military Affairs is a worrying development, along with the militarization of space and forward 'defensive' anti-missile basing. The plan is for the US to be able to win a nuclear war. In the current cultural climate, if they suceed in making the nuclear option non-risky for themselves, I do believe they will use it if their hegemony is threatened.
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
I can't see America going gently. It has a vast military which has been used for a lot more trivial concerns than national survival and unfortunately the momentum of violence will, I'm sure, not dissipate that quickly. As kaj said, Britain actually fought rather a lot of wars to hang on to its empire, even after it had been so emasculated by WW2. I suspect, for much of the world, things are going to be rather bloody and largely through no great fault of their own.
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
Dukkha wrote:
Britain actually fought rather a lot of wars to hang on to its empire
The UK had a real empire, with real colonies, not the least of which the 13 colonies in north america which broke away and became the US. The US does not. That's why I reject the notion that the US is an empire in a strict sense.
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:42 pm Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
Kaj wrote:
The plan is for the US to be able to win a nuclear war. In the current cultural climate, if they suceed in making the nuclear option non-risky for themselves, I do believe they will use it if their hegemony is threatened.
If you felt threatened by nuclear attack, you'd seek technology to protect yourself. It's been this way throughout the entire history of warfare. No country will intentionally leave themselves vulnerable to attack if technology is available to protect themselves. The ABM treaty was kind of an anomoly. The genie is out of the bottle.
The US will not nuke another country without some credible pretense. There is no way a US president is going to come on national TV and say "We are nuking China because our hegemony is threatened".
I know po.com is a haven for US-bashers, but this is ridiculous.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4043 Location: Memphis
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: how will the Empire die?
mos6507 wrote:
Dukkha wrote:
Britain actually fought rather a lot of wars to hang on to its empire
The UK had a real empire, with real colonies, not the least of which the 13 colonies in north america which broke away and became the US. The US does not. That's why I reject the notion that the US is an empire in a strict sense.
We have different kinds of colonies. Think of them as virtual colonies with veneers of self-rule. Every country with which we have a trade deficit is a colony. OPEC is one large unruly colony. Mexico is a colony. Iran used to be a colony, but broke away.
Look at where U.S. troops are stationed around the world and look at where U.S. tax and trade dollars go. Those are U.S. colonies. _________________
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