" Energy consultant Bryan Leyland's appraisal of our current electricity supply situation is typically forthright.
"We are in deep s--- right now and we're going to be in deeper s--- in the future," he told the Star-Times. The state of our power supplies is "the worst I've seen it in 52 years".
The crisis has several causes but the biggest immediate problem in the South Island is lack of rain. Hydro lake levels are around 74% of average and tracking close to their levels in 1992, when the drought was so severe power cuts were enforced.
Worse, lake inflows are well below even 1992 and look likely to stay that way for several months. In the crucial Southern Alps catchment area, below-normal rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows are "very likely", said National Climate Centre hydrologist Alistair McKerchar. "That's about the strongest projection we ever make." "
And isn't it good to know that no matter how bad things get, we are bound into a contract to supply a couple of multinationals with 15% of our total national power generation at a fraction of the market rate. Nice work Meridian...
Joined: Nov 15, 2005 Posts: 154 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
I know it's too late for this winter, but didn't I read in the paper a few months back that they're planning to make more geothermal generating capacity? I think geothermal should be used especially as a stable back up when the lake levels are low.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 112 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:26 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Geothermal is going to be the way forward for NZ's baseload generation in the future.
As I understand it, there are no worthwhile hydro areas left, and 25% of our baseload power currently comes from gas turbines. Once gas drops off the cliff, we'll need something else.
The 5 big players are currently:
- Nuclear (illegal in NZ, but by far and away the best option)
- Geothermal - always-on
- Wind - not terribly reliable
- Solar - onlys works 1/2 the time and can't really be used as baseload
- Wave - still in early prototype stages - a new turbine is being installed in Cook straight
Out of all of those, geothermal is obviously the winner. My chemisty lecturer at Uni was deriding the Think Big! projects from the 80's. I didn't know what he was talking about at the time, but I've since read up about it. At the start of the 80's we had 1 geothermal plant in operation and several more were being planned and we had many world experts in the country working on it, then the Maui gas field was found. The government had the brilliant idea of taking the gas and condensing it down to sell as petrol. This has never really been done since in the world because it was a big commercial flop. They also built all the gas turbines because gas was seen as being easy and lasting forever. So we lost a good 20 years of progress in building geothermal plants, and now it's looking like we're going to have some serious power crunches between 2010 and 2015 or so.
How long before we permit nuclear power plants? IMO we should have had them already (it would certainly help USA to be happier with us).
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
We should be looking into OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). We have enough deep ocean around us, not too far from land.
Of course, ultimately, we need to work on reducing energy consumption outright. In the meantime, however, until this nation comes to grips with the idea that economic growth is unsustainable and that the pursuit of it is endangering our civilisation and many people's lives, we should be looking into such options as OTEC, geothermal, and encouraging homeowners to install solar and wind power (making them a requirement for new homes, with appropriate levels of financial assistance).
We need to stop advertising such energy-intensive and non-essential consumer products as widescreen HD televisions - eventually with a view of banning all advertising that encourages growth in consumption overall.
Of course, the chances of such policies being put into place by any government led by Labour or National would be zero - unless and until forced to by a clear and sudden collapse of resource supply.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4262 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
yeahbut wrote:
So maybe it's gonna be diesel generators in the CBD again this year...
...
hmmmmm...ya think? _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 4:36 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Temperedoil wrote:
We should be looking into OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). We have enough deep ocean around us, not too far from land.
No. That is what you "want" to do.
What we "should" do is powerdown and start living sustainably with what we have got. Afterall, when oil is scarce who's going to ship all the goods to little NZ? Great, we have power... but what will we use it for?
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 6:25 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
s0cks wrote:
Temperedoil wrote:
We should be looking into OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). We have enough deep ocean around us, not too far from land.
No. That is what you "want" to do.
What we "should" do is powerdown and start living sustainably with what we have got. Afterall, when oil is scarce who's going to ship all the goods to little NZ? Great, we have power... but what will we use it for?
I agree that we should be working toward reducing consumption and returning to a sustainable lifestyle, as I mentioned in my post above. However, looking realistically at politics in this country and at the expectations of the populace, our leaders and the general populace are not going to move in that direction unless and until circumstances force them to (such as through shortages forcing the government to introduce rationing and conservation measures). Until that happens, if we are (as is apparently the case) intent on building new power stations, we should be aiming for sustainability and renewable sources. That means replacing current thermal generating capacity with OTEC, geothermal, solar and wind.
I want New Zealand to adapt to the looming resource shortages through following the powerdown path, but I do not see that as being a realistic option in the current political climate. Labour and National are going to promise and try to give the people what the people want (or say that they want in polls), not what the country really needs. Roads being a prime example at present. We should be halting all new road building and planning projects, but the only parties likely to even consider such a move at present are the Greens and the Maori Party, neither one of which is likely to take a majority share of Parliamentary seats alone - until, perhaps, things get to be so bad that the voting public actually starts to listen to what they have been saying.
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 2:42 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
What is your point? We should build "green" power stations because thats all the government will let us do?
You're right though. What we should do and what we will do are two very different things. I fail to see how the government will be able to continue the shipments of goods from China, Tawain, etc... when that happens we will have no choice.
In the short term it is interesting to consider how the NZ economy may survive. We export a lot of food but will that be as profitable in the face of rising diesel prices (and will NZers still have to pay the "global" pricetag)? Will increased prices bring on inflationary pressure as almost everything non-NZ made will likely rise in price?
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Lanthanide wrote:
The 5 big players are currently:
- Nuclear (illegal in NZ, but by far and away the best option)
- Geothermal - always-on
- Wind - not terribly reliable
- Solar - onlys works 1/2 the time and can't really be used as baseload
- Wave - still in early prototype stages - a new turbine is being installed in Cook straight
Nuclear is by far and away the worst option. It is unsustainable.
The best option is to power down. We have a fair amount of hydro (not a great option, ecologically speaking, but there) and we get a lot of sun and wind. We probably have enough power now, for a stable society, but should move to whatever source proves to be the most sustainable and least environmentally damaging.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 112 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
If you're saying that nuclear is unsustainable, then you're pretty much saying that absolutely any form of electricity generation (except for putting up big metal spikes in the air connected to machines, waiting for lightning to strike) is unsustainable, because all types of energy generation require exotic (ie, not found in nature) materials.
Nuclear may perhaps have a shorter lifetime in terms of absolute fuel available - there are some 5 billion years left of sunlight after all, but that doesn't much help you if you can't build the cleanroom factory required to make the solar panels if you're missing all of the materials required for a cleanroom factory (copper, for example, may be at peak right about now, also).
So again, nuclear is the best option at present, and if you disagree then you really should be suggesting that we live without any generated power at all because otherwise we are being 'unsustainable'.
Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:24 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Lanthanide wrote:
nuclear is the best option at present
I'm sure there are a heap of threads at PO.com which explain in great detail why nuclear is the very best, cleanest and most wonderful/worst, deadliest, and most inefficient energy option available. I know very little about it, but one thought that occurs is cost. Surely the price-tag on construction, maintenance and decommissioning of a nuclear plant would be an issue for an economy our size?
Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
TonyPrep wrote:
Lanthanide wrote:
The 5 big players are currently:
- Nuclear (illegal in NZ, but by far and away the best option)
- Geothermal - always-on
- Wind - not terribly reliable
- Solar - onlys works 1/2 the time and can't really be used as baseload
- Wave - still in early prototype stages - a new turbine is being installed in Cook straight
Nuclear is by far and away the worst option. It is unsustainable.
The best option is to power down. We have a fair amount of hydro (not a great option, ecologically speaking, but there) and we get a lot of sun and wind. We probably have enough power now, for a stable society, but should move to whatever source proves to be the most sustainable and least environmentally damaging.
The comments above should be a little less biased, like so:
- Nuclear - works all the time but can't be used for peak load
- Solar - works during peak load times but can't really be used as baseload
Any known form of commercial nuclear, by itself, is worthless to meet peak loads. I would even go so far as to say (this is 100% opinion) any PLANNED form of commercial nuclear power is just as worthless for meeting peak loads as solar is for meeting nigh-time base loads. The two would actually get along rather well - too bad the argument is rarely presented that way by either side.
Edit: left out a word! _________________ Posted from a Solar/Pedal Powered Computer
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:47 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Lanthanide wrote:
If you're saying that nuclear is unsustainable, then you're pretty much saying that absolutely any form of electricity generation (except for putting up big metal spikes in the air connected to machines, waiting for lightning to strike) is unsustainable, because all types of energy generation require exotic (ie, not found in nature) materials.
No I'm not, I'm saying that nuclear uses a finite fuel source. Of course, opinions vary widely over how much fuel source can be produce at what rate over what period. Just like oil really. To go from dependence on one limited fuel source to dependence on another limited fuel source is, IMO, crazy. If it's use with the intention of bridging to a sustainable fuel source, used only at sustainable rates, then it could be useful but it is certainly not true that nuclear is far and away the best alternative.
Lanthanide wrote:
So again, nuclear is the best option at present, and if you disagree then you really should be suggesting that we live without any generated power at all because otherwise we are being 'unsustainable'.
That doesn't follow, although that may well be the best option. What we should certainly be doing is figuring out how to live within the limits of our habitat. This includes lowering our use of finite fuel sources (eventually to zero, in a planned way).
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
s0cks wrote:
What is your point? We should build "green" power stations because thats all the government will let us do?
You're right though. What we should do and what we will do are two very different things. I fail to see how the government will be able to continue the shipments of goods from China, Tawain, etc... when that happens we will have no choice.
In the short term it is interesting to consider how the NZ economy may survive. We export a lot of food but will that be as profitable in the face of rising diesel prices (and will NZers still have to pay the "global" pricetag)? Will increased prices bring on inflationary pressure as almost everything non-NZ made will likely rise in price?
Every day, as I work in this shop that hires out films recorded on discs of metal and plastic, I look outside and see a constant flow of cars, trucks, and the occasional bus. I have mentioned Peak Oil to a few of the customers. When I start to explain it, they say that they know about it, that everybody knows about the Global Warming happening in the future. Trying to explain that the two are not the same thing but that both do have a common tie in humanity's huge population gobbling up resources and living well beyond the capacity of the planet to sustain is - I have found - a fruitless exercise somewhat akin to trying to start a fire with a block of water ice on a cloudy day.
How will New Zealand be affected? Probably very similar to how people in the USA, Europe and Australia will be affected - to begin with. There will be disbelief; there will be a blind faith in "technology will take care of it"; the blame is already being laid at the feet of speculators, oil companies, OPEC, and other above-ground factors (but not ourselves, of course). Further blame will be laid on the shoulders of governments for not putting in the right policies for economic growth. Where paying global market prices for food is concerned - New Zealanders have embraced the Free Market with such religious fervour that any attempts at decoupling our prices from global market prices or having prices set rather than letting the free market determine them will likely be ridiculed and resisted until there is no free market left to take our price cues from.
With that said, I still think that New Zealand is the best place to be. Even when food prices do rise too high for ordinary people to buy, there will still be plenty of food available for everybody to eat. Some people already barter goods and services, and that is likely to become more in vogue as market prices drive consumers and producers to work together outside of the market. Trade with most of the world will eventually stop, but Australia will probably come asking for food (perhaps even water) later. The two big questions of the day will be: do we barter the food for something else (if so, what?)? and, what do we do about the refugees? We also have plenty of water here, which is shaping up to be a major issue in other parts of the world.
Where electricity generation is concerned, New Zealanders will continue to expect cheap electricity for as long as they can, will complain and blame when the powercuts start, and will then be forced to reduce consumption as they vote unstable governments into power. Why unstable? Partly because we will be changing our majority vote every election (until elections become irrelevant) in search of the party that delivers on promised growth, and partly because the coalition members of future governments won't be able to agree on who should be blamed - let alone what the right course of action might be.
Joined: May 07, 2007 Posts: 434 Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Temperedoil wrote:
s0cks wrote:
What is your point? We should build "green" power stations because thats all the government will let us do?
You're right though. What we should do and what we will do are two very different things. I fail to see how the government will be able to continue the shipments of goods from China, Tawain, etc... when that happens we will have no choice.
In the short term it is interesting to consider how the NZ economy may survive. We export a lot of food but will that be as profitable in the face of rising diesel prices (and will NZers still have to pay the "global" pricetag)? Will increased prices bring on inflationary pressure as almost everything non-NZ made will likely rise in price?
Every day, as I work in this shop that hires out films recorded on discs of metal and plastic, I look outside and see a constant flow of cars, trucks, and the occasional bus. I have mentioned Peak Oil to a few of the customers. When I start to explain it, they say that they know about it, that everybody knows about the Global Warming happening in the future. Trying to explain that the two are not the same thing but that both do have a common tie in humanity's huge population gobbling up resources and living well beyond the capacity of the planet to sustain is - I have found - a fruitless exercise somewhat akin to trying to start a fire with a block of water ice on a cloudy day.
How will New Zealand be affected? Probably very similar to how people in the USA, Europe and Australia will be affected - to begin with. There will be disbelief; there will be a blind faith in "technology will take care of it"; the blame is already being laid at the feet of speculators, oil companies, OPEC, and other above-ground factors (but not ourselves, of course). Further blame will be laid on the shoulders of governments for not putting in the right policies for economic growth. Where paying global market prices for food is concerned - New Zealanders have embraced the Free Market with such religious fervour that any attempts at decoupling our prices from global market prices or having prices set rather than letting the free market determine them will likely be ridiculed and resisted until there is no free market left to take our price cues from.
With that said, I still think that New Zealand is the best place to be. Even when food prices do rise too high for ordinary people to buy, there will still be plenty of food available for everybody to eat. Some people already barter goods and services, and that is likely to become more in vogue as market prices drive consumers and producers to work together outside of the market. Trade with most of the world will eventually stop, but Australia will probably come asking for food (perhaps even water) later. The two big questions of the day will be: do we barter the food for something else (if so, what?)? and, what do we do about the refugees? We also have plenty of water here, which is shaping up to be a major issue in other parts of the world.
Where electricity generation is concerned, New Zealanders will continue to expect cheap electricity for as long as they can, will complain and blame when the powercuts start, and will then be forced to reduce consumption as they vote unstable governments into power. Why unstable? Partly because we will be changing our majority vote every election (until elections become irrelevant) in search of the party that delivers on promised growth, and partly because the coalition members of future governments won't be able to agree on who should be blamed - let alone what the right course of action might be.
You have plenty of water now. In the future you may not. The wildcard is climate change. _________________ "That the cream cannot help but always rise up to the top, well I say, <censored by peakoil.com> floats"
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