How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
BOSTON — He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. He predicted the explosive spread of the Internet and wireless access.
Now futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil is part of distinguished panel of engineers that says solar power will scale up to produce all the energy needs of Earth's people in 20 years.
There is 10,000 times more sunlight than we need to meet 100 percent of our energy needs, he says, and the technology needed for collecting and storing it is about to emerge as the field of solar energy is going to advance exponentially in accordance with Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. That law yields a doubling of price performance in information technologies every year.
Kurzweil, author of "The Singularity Is Near" and "The Age of Intelligent Machines," worked on the solar energy solution with Google Co-Founder Larry Page as part of a panel of experts convened by the National Association of Engineers to address the 14 "grand challenges of the 21st century," including making solar energy more economical. The panel's findings were announced here last week at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Solar to compete in five years
Solar and wind power currently supply about 1 percent of the world's energy needs, Kurzweil said, but advances in technology are about to expand with the introduction of nano-engineered materials for solar panels, making them far more efficient, lighter and easier to install. Google has invested substantially in companies pioneering these approaches...
BOSTON — He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. He predicted the explosive spread of the Internet and wireless access.
Now futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil is part of distinguished panel of engineers that says solar power will scale up to produce all the energy needs of Earth's people in 20 years.
There is 10,000 times more sunlight than we need to meet 100 percent of our energy needs, he says, and the technology needed for collecting and storing it is about to emerge as the field of solar energy is going to advance exponentially in accordance with Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. That law yields a doubling of price performance in information technologies every year.
Kurzweil, author of "The Singularity Is Near" and "The Age of Intelligent Machines," worked on the solar energy solution with Google Co-Founder Larry Page as part of a panel of experts convened by the National Association of Engineers to address the 14 "grand challenges of the 21st century," including making solar energy more economical. The panel's findings were announced here last week at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Solar to compete in five years
Solar and wind power currently supply about 1 percent of the world's energy needs, Kurzweil said, but advances in technology are about to expand with the introduction of nano-engineered materials for solar panels, making them far more efficient, lighter and easier to install. Google has invested substantially in companies pioneering these approaches...
Let the character trashing begin!
Err....I predicted the fall of the USSR, the rise of the EU/NATO/West, the failure of ecological politics (the green movement), the rehabilitation of Jewry, the demonisation of Islam after it's cynical use in defeating communism, the rise of the internet, wireless internet, the fall of the age of reason, the rise of cultural geo-politics (regional xenophobia)...and I predict that this civilisation will never reach its potential....I'm not Ray Kurzweill however, I'm joe public. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
It used to be that the mention of Kurzweil here would arouse an immediate reaction of vehement condemnation and ridicule. What happened to all the militant Luddites?
Kurzweil is the ultimate anti-Luddite. He is big exponent of The Singularity.
The technological singularity is a hypothesized point in the future variously characterized by the technological creation of self-improving intelligence, unprecedentedly rapid technological progress, or some combination of the two.[1]
Statistician I. J. Good first wrote of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences. Vernor Vinge later called this event "the Singularity" as an analogy between the breakdown of modern physics near a gravitational singularity and the drastic change in society he argues would occur following an intelligence explosion. In the 1980s, Vinge popularized the Singularity in lectures, essays, and science fiction. More recently, some AI researchers have voiced concern over the potential dangers of Vinge's Singularity.
Others, most prominently Ray Kurzweil, define the Singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress. Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue to other technologies not yet invented.
Critics of Kurzweil's interpretation consider it an example of static analysis, citing particular failures of the predictions of Moore's Law. The Singularity also draws criticism from anarcho-primitivism and environmentalism advocates.
Following its introduction in Vinge's stories, the Singularity has also become a common plot element throughout science fiction...
I don't see why nanosolar WON'T be a technology that will experience exponential growth. I hope the price of crude rises further quicker in the short term just so we will begin to see this particular substitute begin to take form. _________________ Documentary: "Oil, Smoke & Mirrors" Engineers Question 911
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
Schadenfreude, nano is no better than bio technology. It's a religion based on ignorance and false hopes. Granted, biotech fermentation bacteria are regularly used in pharmaceutical and the food ingredient industry but the hope of improved agricultural plants and products have been a bust. It's easy to screw with a lifeform that only has 20 genes. It's quite another to mess with one containing 10,000's.
I challenge you to name me three successful biotechnic (non-bacterial level) and three nanotechic commercial products that rest on their own merits and not government subsidies
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
pstarr wrote:
Schadenfreude, nano is no better than bio technology. It's a religion based on ignorance and false hopes. Granted, biotech fermentation bacteria are regularly used in pharmaceutical and the food ingredient industry but the hope of improved agricultural plants and products have been a bust. It's easy to screw with a lifeform that only has 20 genes. It's quite another to mess with one containing 10,000's.
I challenge you to name me three successful biotechnic (non-bacterial level) and three nanotechic commercial products that rest on their own merits and not government subsidies
dare you.
Most of this stuff is just barely emerging now. It's only been since 1998 that a barrel of crude was selling for $10. When crude is that cheap, no substitutes will be on anyone's drawing board. And oil has been selling at around the $100 level for only a very short while.
It seems silly to expect or demand science to instantly serve up an economic miracle. But I expect that once we are into expensive crude for some time, we will start seeing some tremendous innovation and we will see dramatic substitution begin. Human beings are so innovative and adaptable.
The doomers on the board claim to know with absolute certainty what the future holds. I don't pretend to know what the future holds; I just follow the news to see what the latest developments are. And nanosolar looks like one of the more promising and scaleable substitutes - but Nanosolar, Inc is not even at a broad economic stage yet with its product.
I've never really subscribed to the end-of-civilisation theme that runs through this site. But I have always thought that the peaking of world oil production would bring with it plenty of dramatic politics - including the violent kind. So oil geopolitics and that kind of thing is more what interests me. I link 911 to Peak Oil in the same way that Mike Ruppert did.
I would tend to agree that the human population is too large and too wasteful. It may be that it is in need of some pruning back. But I would bet that it will be people that will prune population back - not nature.
And I'm not at all on board the end-of-technological-progress wagon. I would bet that most of the people who DO subscribe to the end of civilization idea are quite young while most of the people who think that the end of the oil age will be somewhat wrenching but manageable (like Matt Simmons) are older. _________________ Documentary: "Oil, Smoke & Mirrors" Engineers Question 911
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1715 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 11:24 pm Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
I'm a looking forward to full speed ahead with nano-wheat, nano-corn, nano-fertiliser, nano-cotton, nano-meat, nano-frickin daydreaming. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 3:02 am Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
Schadenfreude wrote:
I would bet that most of the people who DO subscribe to the end of civilization idea are quite young while most of the people who think that the end of the oil age will be somewhat wrenching but manageable (like Matt Simmons) are older.
I think the older generation tend to be the type NOT to believe in peak oil or are reluctant to consider societal collapse because they have already lived their entire lives with an abundance of cheap energy. That's all they've ever known and they have absolutely nothing to gain in reshaping their model of the world in their twilight years. They've already built their nest egg brick by brick and by gosh they are gonna ride out into the sunset happily and quietly even if they have to actively insulate themselves from the world collapsing outside their gated retirement communities.
It's the younger generation who has to look a little farther in the crystal ball to see whether their future aspirations have a greater or lesser chance of coming to pass.
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
I remember this one guy who was locally famous for predicting a bunch of things over the course of a year. Correctly predicted a tornado, several major sports events, a flood.
Then he got hit by a bus and was killed. So much for divination.
Solar in 20 years? Or 19.98 as of right now? Good luck with that.
The world is definitely going nano. For example, I think that several billion people will be eating nano meals within the next 10 years.
Joined: Oct 03, 2004 Posts: 512 Location: Washington State
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:12 am Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
Solar and wind certainly have a "future" in the generation of electricity. They work pretty good right now.
I don't see much use for them as transportation fuels. It would be nice to see a return of electric busses and trains. _________________ This is where everybody puts profound words written by another...or not so profound words written by themselves
Highlander 2007
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:32 am Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
mos6507 wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
I would bet that most of the people who DO subscribe to the end of civilization idea are quite young while most of the people who think that the end of the oil age will be somewhat wrenching but manageable (like Matt Simmons) are older.
I think the older generation tend to be the type NOT to believe in peak oil or are reluctant to consider societal collapse because they have already lived their entire lives with an abundance of cheap energy. That's all they've ever known and they have absolutely nothing to gain in reshaping their model of the world in their twilight years. They've already built their nest egg brick by brick and by gosh they are gonna ride out into the sunset happily and quietly even if they have to actively insulate themselves from the world collapsing outside their gated retirement communities.
It's the younger generation who has to look a little farther in the crystal ball to see whether their future aspirations have a greater or lesser chance of coming to pass.
Yes all those old people have nothing to live for anymore and don't care what happens to their children or grandchildren or great grandchildren. I take it you have no children and if you do I feel sorry for them.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4043 Location: Memphis
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
Schadenfreude wrote:
And I'm not at all on board the end-of-technological-progress wagon. I would bet that most of the people who DO subscribe to the end of civilization idea are quite young while most of the people who think that the end of the oil age will be somewhat wrenching but manageable (like Matt Simmons) are older.
Technological progress will not end, it will just run into diminishing marginal returns as the tailwind of cheap energy fades. The gadgets will be ever more complex, they will just provide less and less additional utlility as a function of their additional complexity.
I am still trying to figure out who decided that increasing complexity was the ideal in the first place. How about finding simpler problems rather than more complicated solutions?
The smartest computer one can imagine still needs to be plugged in. _________________
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