Influx of expatriats?

Lanthanide · Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:43 am Post subject: Influx of expatriats?

This entirely depends on how fast the decline of civilisation occurs, and whether international travel is still possible and affordable, but it seems to me that NZ, and probably to a lesser extent Oz, could be in for massive influxes of expatriates once the going gets tough and NZ and Oz are seen to be 'safer havens' than other countries in the world (most people on these forums seem to regard them as such).

Population of NZ is currently 4.1 million, and there are an estimated ~475,000 living in Oz, with possibly another 600,000 citizens living elsewhere around the world (I just guestimated that number myself). Say that 10% of those (100,000) choose to come back over the course of 2-3 years, we're looking at 33k-50k population increases each year, compared to the current annual immigration of 45,000 of foreigners. Add in the foreigners seeking our greener pastures and you're looking at potential increases of up to 90-100k over several years, probably accellerating as time goes on (while travel is still affordable, of course).

What do people think the ramifications of this could be? Would this help to prop up an economy in the face of PO, or could it place excessive strain on already tight infrastructure?

Mudpuppy · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 31, 2006 Posts: 33 Location: Japan

Hmmm..... interesting question. I am an ex-pat kiwi here. I grew up in Wellington (Wainuiomata), and lived in Christchurch for 10 years, before moving to Japan where I have lived for the last 4 years. My current plans are to spend another 2 - 3 years or so in Japan, before possibly emigrating to Canada. However I will never rule out a return to New Zealand as a home in the future.

For now, employment opportunities, taxes, as well as cultural issues and other issues keep me away from N.Z. And I have never missed it in the 4 years I have been away (been over three since I last was back for a visit). But I see that due to milk prices our economy is booming back home.

But just one issue .... although we are a temperate nation, so not bad off for winter heating, and firewood is still commonly used for heating (well not in Christchurch due to the by law prohibiting the use of wood as a fuel for heating, but elsewhere it is popular such as my parents place), much of the electricity comes from hydroelectricity, and the narrow thin nature of our islands makes having a a long thin train line feasible. (It can be made dual fuel and run on the electricity, and if flights become expensive then there will be the demand for it). Commuting distances are shorter than many parts of the world, we have abundant, as well as abundant local agriculture (which in a bad scenario post peak world no one can afford to have shipped to them, so more for us). But,...

That one issue is we don`t produce much. Everything comes from elsewhere. We are a primary producing nation, but one that has always paid expensive fuel prices, and has a high welfare state. When that welfare state has to end there will be massive social upheavals. So...

I am a middle of the road post peak believer. In the sense I believe in peak oil, and believe it will be a bumpy ride, but we will get through (N.Z and Australia that is). But mostly that is because we have always had high energy prices, so we have never developed a `cheap gas is our birth rite` attitude.

Just one thing about your number though..... According to what I understand. There are actually 6 million New Zealand citizens in the world, and only 4.1 million live at home as 1.9 million will always be out of the country somewhere. So that makes 6 million being home if things get tight. But there is no reason to believe that those kiwi`s across the ditch will come back as Aussy may not fear too bad.

P.S - when last I was home, petrol (gasoline) was $1.65 a liter I think ($5.00 USD precisely a gallon when converted into USD and into gallons). What is the price per liter now back in Christchurch?

As for ramifications of these kiwi`s returning..... well, it seems to me that N.Z may not have a need for the type of kiwi`s that want to return. I mean, the type of kiwi`s that leave N.Z and live oerseas are usually young professionals (ia m talking of the long termer ex-pats, not just the ones on a 1 year O.E). And currently what N.Z seems to lack is people for the land. I see on last nights t.v news (I get it via xtra.co.nz), they mentioned that as much as 20% of our apple crop this year will go to waste as there is no labour to pick it. What N.Z seems to need is labour, and most of those kiwi`s who have left are skilled young professionals, but with skills that a post peak world may not require (E.G - Computer analyts, accountants, etc, when what maybe required is more practical based workers). 1.9 million young skilled professionals moving back home if they are skilled in an area where there is now work, may not help things.

Lanthanide · Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:45 pm Post subject: Re: Influx of expatriats?

I just used the Oz numbers to get a gauage on total world NZer population, as I couldn't be bothered looking for a number anywhere. 6 million is more than I would have guessed, though. But it just makes it even worse.

As for petrol, it wouldn't have been 1.65 3 years ago - it is 1.709 right now.

And as for the people returning - if you are a young professional stuck in a country where you just lost your job, and are not likely to get another one (because your industry is imploding), and you see the food supply in that country is drying up, wouldn't you want to return to NZ because you know we've got plenty of food, and you'd be able to get a job working on the farm if nothing else?

I too work in the IT industry and I'm really not expecting that to last much longer than the next 5 years - if I'd known about PO when I started my degree I may have seriously considered forestry or some other agricultural degree. Oh well, too late now, and at least I'm making lots of money (especially for someone my age).

Temperedoil · Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Influx of expatriats?

How many Kiwis return to New Zealand may depend on how quickly events transpire, and how quickly the individuals concerned realise that this is not a short term phenomenon.

So long as those people seeking better prospects overseas have reason to believe that they shall continue to have better prospects overseas, they will not be interested in returning to New Zealand. If the realisation that New Zealand offers a better future than (for example) London or New York comes before the great global economic collapse (that one might be a little too long to be catchy) sets in with the vengeance of a spurned female dragon, then we shall see potentially hundreds of thousands (I doubt that they would all return, as many people will be likely to stubbornly hold onto optimistic views of the future even as their feet are being dragged into a wood chipper) returning. Once here, if they have come back due to a realisation that the old way of life is no longer viable, they are likely to be prepared to pitch in and help.

I think it is worth noting that returning to New Zealand from half way around the world requires effort, expense, planning, time. Anybody who is prepared to do so is likely to be aware that further effort, etc, will be required upon returning.

Having said that, although I feel that New Zealand is likely to be the best place to be in the Post Peak era, it will still be tough here to begin with. I actually have a feature length screenplay in mind set in Post Peak New Zealand, and am hoping that I can save enough to buy a new computer to write it on (my current one is hopelessly unreliable) before the great collapse ensues. Will people who have left for economic reasons have the psychological toughness to be able to make it in an environment of (to begin with) chaos, despair, and a failing economy with all which that entails?

electric_future · Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: Influx of expatriats?

As an ex-pat who has returned, I'm finding life OK here. It's not always paradise, but NZ has caught up with the world in a lot of ways- the Internet has enabled the cultural cringe to evaporate. There is (was?) a sense of 'freshness' about NZ that I've always liked- not being burdened with 1000s of years of depressing history or an entrenched ruling class helps. The downsides are the usual urban rat-race, low pay and ridiculous (albeit temporary!) housing speculation- a main reason why many young people do move.

I am on the fence on the whole doom-fest that exhibits itself on this board, I think the greatest challenge in the next 10 years will be recession, and oil depletion/climate change will not affect us for maybe 20 years, depending on the world response.

With the economy soon to be moribund, it might be the other way around- you will get an ever-larger number of young mobile people leaving NZ due to lack of opportunity. It is possible that places like China and Europe will be the places to go to, the Anglo-sphere might have major economic trauma which won't bode well for employment prospects in the FIRE economy (finance, insurance, real estate).

Australia will of course remain a magnet for kiwis...