Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
KillTheHumans wrote:
The ratio stayed the same on the way up as well. Since WWI. Its an interesting number in that it says something about what "inventory" the industry keeps on the books, relative to production rate.
Well, I can't say that I find that an interesting number.
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
TonyPrep wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
The ratio stayed the same on the way up as well. Since WWI. Its an interesting number in that it says something about what "inventory" the industry keeps on the books, relative to production rate.
Well, I can't say that I find that an interesting number.
Then I shall never mention it again. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA's BM-S-9 block, known as Carioca, may hold 33 billion barrels of oil equivalent, up to five times the size of the company's Tupi oil field, Folha de S. Paulo reported, citing Haroldo Lima, director of Brazil's National Oil Agency.
The block is 45 percent-controlled by Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, Folha said. British Gas LP Gas Ltd. holds a 30 percent stake and Repsol SA controls 25 percent, Folha said.
Carioca is to the west of Tupi, which is located in Brazil's Santos Basin, Folha said.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1034 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
^
Yup.
skyemoor wrote:
Piddling discoveries like the make this thread boring. It would be much more interesting if you posted discoveries that had at least gotten to a firm estimate point of at least a month's worth of global oil production, if not 3 months.
Well, I hope this one passes muster.
This is an unofficial, preliminary announcement by the head of the Brazilian National Petroleum Agency, but I can always edit the post later if the information changes.
Gotta put it in my format.
Size of discovery: 33 billion barrels - Petrobras tends to list its discoveries as recoverable, so this may or may not be recoverable barrels
Date: April 14, 2008
Company(s): Petrobras, British Gas LP Gas Ltd., and Respol
Name: Carioca (and/or Sugar Loaf?)
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: 27
Flow rate of test well(s): 2,900 bpd
Estimated production startup date: no information yet
LINK LINK LINK LINK
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2971 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
OilFinder2 wrote:
Name: Carioca (and/or Sugar Loaf?)
Alas (?), according to the Boston Globe Carioca and Sugarloaf are one and the same:
Quote:
If proven, the oil in the exploration area called both Carioca and Sugarloaf Mountain by analysts would also be five times larger than the Tupi oil field, whose estimated reserves of 8 billion barrels were announced by Petroleo Brasileiro SA in November.
Was puzzled by the new announcement of the same amount of Brazilian oil being discovered. Thought they were auditioning for OPEC membership by making crap up!
The Globe article also takes a dig at us Finiteists:
Quote:
However, it does cast new doubt on peak oil theory, which postulates that world oil demand will soon outpace supply.
It is impossible to say whether or not more 33-billion-barrel oil fields exist under the sea, Evans said.
"Nobody really has data on what's out there in the middle of the ocean," Evans said.
Yeah, we're pessimists for denying you can make liquid fuel out of basalt. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1034 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:57 am Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
For Tony:
OilFinder2 wrote:
This is an unofficial, preliminary announcement by the head of the Brazilian National Petroleum Agency, but I can always edit the post later if the information changes.
This field has been rumored since shortly after Tupi was announced - it does exist and it is large. I assume that the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency wouldn't have the gall to say such a thing if it was completely fictitious or not nearly as big as rumored. But it was big news - even TheDude posted it before I did - so I added it. If the information changes later, I can always edit the post.
Details were being discussed in the Brazil thread in the Energy News section.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:19 am Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
OilFinder2 wrote:
I assume that the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency wouldn't have the gall to say such a thing if it was completely fictitious or not nearly as big as rumored.
Wouldn't he? You assume a lot.
By the way, the word "completely" is redundant. The figure of 33 billion is either fictitious or it isn't.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1034 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:23 am Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
Tony, if the information changes I'll edit the post - I promise!
As we speak, Petrobras is drilling another well in the Carioca area, and Hess will soon start drilling their own well nearby and supposedly have some information by June. So we should be hearing some "official" word in the near future.
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
Yo Oil, I posted this somewhere else too, thought you might like the explanation on what the USGS did and how, with maps and slides and explanations and stuff. About the Bakken.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:24 am Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
Petrobras issued this "clarification":
Quote:
Regarding the information attributed to the general director of the National Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Agency, Haroldo Lima, published by the press today (04/14) regarding possible reserves located in the Carioca area, Petrobras clarifies that:
The consortium formed by Petrobras (45% - Operator), BG (30%), and Repsol YPF Brasil (25%) is still following its exploratory program for Block BM-S-9, in the Santos Basin. The Block is composed of two exploratory areas. Well 1-BRSA-491-SPS (1-SPS-50) was drilled in the largest of them, and resulted in the discovery announced on September 05 2007. On that occasion, the market was informed that more investments are required to drill new wells, the Assessment Plan for which is in its final preparation phase and is expected to be submitted to the NPA in the upcoming days.
Following the normal exploration schedule, on March 22 2008, the Company started drilling the second well, the 1-BRSA-594-SPS (1-SPS-55), which is located in the smaller area of the block, but it has yet to reach the pre-salt layer. The ongoing exploratory activities include drilling new wells, long-duration formation tests, and new geological studies to prove the range of the discovery.
More conclusive data on the discovery’s potential will only be known after the other phases involved in the assessment process have been completed, and they will be announced to the market in a timely manner.
It is on their web site It seems that the "announcement" is premature.
Gustavson assigns 2.987 billion barrels with 3.014 trillion cubic feet of associated gas as the P50 prospective oil resources in its oil with associated gas case. Gustavson notes that because of the depth it is possible that the prospects will hold natural gas. In its oil with a gas cap case Gustavson calculates the prospective resources to total 1.4 billion barrels of light oil and 15 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Gustavson estimates that in the event only gas is present the P50 prospective resource is 28 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Note that it gives different scenarios (presumably because it's a guess, at this stage). 2.987 billion is a P50 (also known as "possible") estimate under one scenario. It's also possible that there is no oil.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:44 am Post subject: Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries
Quote:
2.987 billion is a P50 (also known as "possible") estimate under one scenario. It's also possible that there is no oil.
P50 is not "possible" reserves in anyones vocabulary. Under new SEC/SEG/AAPG directives P1 or proven reserves can be equivalent to P90 (90% chance of the reserves being that size or larger), P2 or probable reserves can be equivalent to P50 (50% chance it will be that size or larger) and P3 or possible reserves can be equivalent to P10 (10% chance of the reserves being that size or larger). The same terminology can be applied to the resource category, the differnce between resource and reserves being an economic hurdle has been met (could be size or contractual). Resources are divided into two categories contingent and prospective, in this case you would be talking about P50 or probable prospective resources as the pool has not been drilled.
Note that prior to drilling prospects the P50 size estimate is actually somewhat pessimistic. Since reserve/resource distributions are log normal the best description of all the potential outcomes is the mean which in most pools prior to drilling sits somewhere closer to a P40-P30 range.
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