Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 8:49 pm Post subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
jerry_mcmanus wrote:
Apologies for the confusion, but I thought that mathematical modeling of future trends based on observed statistical data is about as empirical as it gets, then it occured to me that most of the current depletion modeling, with the notable exception of your shock/dispersive model, is completely dependent on shot-in-the-dark SWAG's as to URR.
Cheers,
Jerry
I think the problems with economics is why most of the mathematicians have split to econometrics.
"Econometrics is concerned with the tasks of developing and applying quantitative or statistical methods to the study and elucidation of economic principles. Econometrics combines economic theory with statistics to analyze and test economic relationships. Theoretical econometrics considers questions about the statistical properties of estimators and tests, while applied econometrics is concerned with the application of econometric methods to assess economic theories"
And this gets very deep and obscure very quickly. Fertile ground for Nobel prizes based on recent selections.
Like you say, the statistical predictors are strongly supported, but without a firm model basis, it turns into a crap-shoot.
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