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ohanian
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 17, 2004
Posts: 1089
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 Posted: Sat Dec 11, 2004 12:59 am Post subject: |
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| nailud wrote: | | Markets always do surprising things on a short-term basis. The 200 day moving average of the oil price is currently around $42 and rising, so if it doesn't fall much below that, the uptrend should still be intact. As far as why individual traders are bidding the price lower, perhaps some of them are just finding out that there is some escess capacity TO cut. |
Is this infomation (200 day moving average) on a website that we can check? How do we get this information is we wanted to? |
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lowem
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
Posts: 1173
Location: Singapore
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| Posted: Sat Dec 11, 2004 7:20 am Post subject: |
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This is the site I usually go to :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC
You can play around with the controls to overlap various technical indicators on the same chart, or enter another symbol to look at another stock or index.
Among other things, usually I'll put in the 50dma, 200dma and RSI, these are the more "popular" indicators that people look at.
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Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes |
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0mar
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 1647
Location: Davis, California
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| Posted: Sat Dec 11, 2004 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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The way oil is made is probably a combination of both methods.
However, for our purposes, either method takes millions of years to produce any apperciable increase in petroleum reserves. And most exploration teams have a very good idea of where petroleum can form and under what conditions.
We are debating a non-issue. Either theory won't save us, simply because thoes processes happen on geological timespans, not human lifetimes.
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Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. " |
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Lurking
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| Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:30 am Post subject: |
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| Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did... |
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Lurking
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| Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did... |
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Lurking
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did... |
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Shannymara
Master
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5437
Location: Oklahoma
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| Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Yes, this has been hypothesized in a few threads on this site by several people. No way to know for sure until later, though. |
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smiley
Fission
Joined: Apr 16, 2004
Posts: 2126
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | As of Friday, 10 Dec. 2004, at 1PM CST oil futures are dropping substantially. Why is this happening when OPEC just announced a production cut? Anyone know? Thanks in advance. |
Shannymara. I had to wait to last Friday to be sure but it was "short selling". I'll try to explain that.
Oil is sold in contracts. Last Friday was the end of the January contract. That means that after that day all trading is stopped and all deliveries have to be allocated.
Say the price of oil is $50 today. Now I think that the price is going to decrease this month. You think that it is going to increase. What I can do then is draw up an agreement. I will sell oil to you at $50 and promise to deliver that oil to you at the end of the month. But I don't have any oil. I just gave you an paper I.O.U. Now suppose that I'm right and the price of oil drops to $46. Then I buy some real oil at the end of the month for $46 and give it to you. That would mean that I made a profit of $4 since you payed me $50. This is a very simplistic description of short selling.
On the other hand you can go "long". If I expect the oil price to rise I can buy oil. I don't really need oil but I expect to sell it again at a higher price. However I have to get rid of these contracts before the end of the trading month because otherwise I might end up with a mammoth-tanker in my backyard.
So the end of the trading month is a very important event. Those who went "long" need to get rid of their contracts and those who went "short" need to cover their short positions.
When oil was at $55 too many people were long. These people had to ged rid of their positions and the price dropped to $47 at the end of the trading month. When oil was at $41 too many people were short and they had to cover their positions at the end of the month. This caused the price increase to $46.
So while the price has moved back and forth $15 dollars not much has really happened in market fundamentals the past two months. It just reflects a shift in the expectations of the speculators. |
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