How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:40 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
Maybe the denizens of NZ should try to reinstate their previous formidable reputation for cannibalism? Or have the folk lost their touch along such lines. Such reputational measures can be surprisingly effective as a disincentive to outsiders.
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 9:13 am Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
I seriously don't think invasion is going to be a problem for NZ.
I takes enormous amounts of oil to build and power a war machine. Read your history books and see what happened to the Japanese and Germans in WW2 when they ran short of fuel.
A bit of trivia about oil shortages in WW2 was the use of Kamikaze aircraft. The reason for their use was that there were more pilots and planes then there was fuel to operate them. Pilots and aircraft therefore became expendable.
Peak Oil will be bad news for those countries that share land borders as millions of starving refugees criss cross borders in search of food and water.
The numbers of refugees that have the resources to sail ships and boats half way around the world to remote places like NZ will be negligible.
Joined: Dec 28, 2005 Posts: 294 Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 6:38 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
ohanian wrote:
auscanman wrote:
Given Japan's precarious situation the rise of WW2 style militarism there within the near future seems inevitable.
Have you actually been to Japan?
It's a country filled with old men and old women.
Do you really think they will send their precious young ones
to die in an invasion?
Yeah, I've been there. I'd say that if anything their supremacist ideology will make my above comment even more likely.
It's true that Japan has a large number of elderly, but that doesn't detract from the fact that their population is MASSIVELY over what Japan's carrying capacity is.
I take it that you're suggesting the Japanese will willingly see their standard of living plummet over the course of time, and not make any attempt to secure the resources necessary to maintain some semblance of their current lifestyle???
The 'precious young ones' may well be the ones pushing hardest for doing whatever is necessary to secure resources, thinking it unfair that they should not enjoy the same quality of life that their parents did.
Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 24 Location: Queenstown, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
I'd have to agree with the refugee camp on this one. But in saying that, it still seems rather idealist.
For Indonesia, Australia is far closer and easier to access. Same goes for Japan and China. If you are going to invade, choose somewhere with some sizable real estate at least.
And besides, its cold here anyway, and we eat people. _________________ Well Flickr me...
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
Definitely refugees. The thing we see in the US with Mexicans is going to happen worldwide. Everyone's going to abandon dying nations for perceived greener pastures and totally disregard immigration law unless enforced by gunpoint. This will put "civilized" society to the test for how far they will go to avoid this de-facto invasion scenario as it is in the US.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
LastManInEurope wrote:
Maybe the denizens of NZ should try to reinstate their previous formidable reputation for cannibalism? Or have the folk lost their touch along such lines.
Certainly not. There's a big cultural revival going on in this country. And I just realised how well some of the old ways will tie in with this little issue:
essex wrote:
It's not aggression so much it's REFUGEES - a few boats , eg oil tankers on their last "run" could easily carry 100,000 people. So they run aground on the west coast of the North Island , what are you to do , shoot them ???
Shoot em, club em, whatever-just keep on coming people, we need a feed...
Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 24 Location: Queenstown, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
essex wrote:
eg oil tankers on their last "run" could easily carry 100,000 people. So they run aground on the west coast of the North Island , what are you to do , shoot them ???
Meh. it's only the North Island. As long as they stay there, it's fine with me _________________ Well Flickr me...
Joined: Jan 29, 2005 Posts: 362 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
I will not discount the possibility of an invasion of NZ grounds by the Japanese, Chinese, or Indians, or even the Indonesians. There are way too many resources here that are really juicy.
Water, food (arable land), and shelter (wood -- it takes 25 years compared to 45 years of growing Pines in Canada -- 1x reason why this place is lucritive business for timber sectors!) are a-plenty, even in the north and south islands.
Invasion also may not come in terms of physical invasion (e.g. refugees, armed invasion, etc). It could come in terms of financial and legal means. Anyone keeping tabs with the immigration department in Wellington would probably reveal the ramp up in human and paperwork traffic for the past 1.5years, and the resultant backblow of immigration procedures to STEM the folks coming in. True -- officially they will try to keep the "cream of the skilled crop" by rejecting the "lesser skilled" folk, but increases are across the board, skilled or not.
The amount of forex reserves and national debt + trade deficit (been negative since 1970) makes certain entities here vulnerable to buyouts from the Chinese or Asians if our side gets really desperate. You don't really have to go through the RBNZ or treasuries or even the bond markets to tell how desperate we are for non-debt lending/financing : just take a look at the desperation in keeping personal and corporate taxes as high as possible (and so much delay in reducing taxes lol!), as well as the delinquencies in upgrading 20-30 year old infrastructure around the country : resource pipelines, transportation webs, communications infra. The gap between NZ's infra still is WIDENING from the nearest neighbour : Australia, let alone Japane, China, Singapore, Malaysia, etc.
This is it. Whatever resource and infrastructure we have right now to tap the former -- we're just going to make do for the slope ahead. There is nothing but promises for improvements -- it's just a matter of how well this country can slow its slide by the rubber on its shoes ... or none at all. This currently is one place folks coming here can rape the current infrastructure for prepping to go fully feral WTSHTF. _________________ regards,
Rostov
"Some {} are more equal than others"
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
Jack wrote:
What if the invasion is by large numbers of starving, desperate Japanese, Chinese, Indonesians, and so on and so forth?
They get to your shores in battered boats (nothing worthy of the name ship) and vomit forth upon your shores.
What do you do?
I don't know about the Indonesians. However I have a feeling that a Chinese or Japanese invasion would happen somewhat differently.
Let's see... One night at about 3 AM New Zealand's skies are teaming with 5-th generation stealth bombers. The North Island is surrounded by a flotilla. A few hundred cruise missiles take out all major military targets. Supersonic missiles destroy all sizeable RNZN ships. Electromagnetic impulse detonations (or maybe an EMP generated by a high-altitude nuclear blast) take out the electric network and all civilian communications. Massive precision bombardment follows taking out all strategic targets. Finally, a few tens of thousands of highly trained paratroopers invade Auckland and the few other major cities, with massive air, helicopter and unmanned drone support. The proud people of New Zealand is tagged, herded and pacified through intensive use of advanced nonlethal weapons. Resisters are executed on the spot together with their families. Recalcitrant towns are subjected to extermination bombing.
For the time being, enjoy fantasizing about boat people. And pray that the Japanese and Chinese never develop a serious interest in the place.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
btu2012 wrote:
Let's see... One night at about 3 AM New Zealand's skies are teaming with 5-th generation stealth bombers. The North Island is surrounded by a flotilla. A few hundred cruise missiles take out all major military targets. Supersonic missiles destroy all sizeable RNZN ships. Electromagnetic impulse detonations (or maybe an EMP generated by a high-altitude nuclear blast) take out the electric network and all civilian communications. Massive precision bombardment follows taking out all strategic targets. Finally, a few tens of thousands of highly trained paratroopers invade Auckland and the few other major cities, with massive air, helicopter and unmanned drone support. The proud people of New Zealand is tagged, herded and pacified through intensive use of advanced nonlethal weapons. Resisters are executed on the spot together with their families. Recalcitrant towns are subjected to extermination bombing.
Btu
Crikey. Wipe the drool of your chin there matey. As kokoda pointed out, why would they? So they can get our sheep? That's a hell of an expensive operation you're talking about. The pay-off on a military exercise like that has got to be massive- oil , minerals etc. I think we're far more likely to be a target for refugees than the military operation you so lovingly describe.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
yeahbut wrote:
Crikey. Wipe the drool of your chin there matey. As kokoda pointed out, why would they? So they can get our sheep? That's a hell of an expensive operation you're talking about. The pay-off on a military exercise like that has got to be massive- oil , minerals etc. I think we're far more likely to be a target for refugees than the military operation you so lovingly describe.
Got a short fuse yeahbutt-boy ? I mentioned that they currently have no interest in the place. Better pray that this doesn't change.
Now go on enjoying your compatriots' rants about "boat people" and such. Just don't expect the Chinese and Japanese to fit that racist profile.
Btu _________________ only the paranoid survive
Last edited by btu2012 on Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
btu2012 wrote:
Got a short fuse yeahbutt-boy ? I mentioned that they currently have no interest in the place. Better pray that this doesn't change.
Btu
So your point is that China or Japan could militarily overwhelm NZ in about two minutes? Wow, that news is a terrible shock down here I can tell you...only a few decades back the Japanese were bombing Australia and supposedly there were subs off NZ also. We grow up here knowing that anyone bigger than Fiji could wipe us out(whenever a military plane flies overhead the standard gag is "there goes the airforce")- so what was the point of your post if not to have a little war-porn fantasy?
Oh and congratulations on your cunning wordplay there, so clever! You have now joined the illustrious company of golem and roccman in that witty jibe...your short fuse, and abusive turn of phrase, has been demonstrated time and again whenever someone has the temerity to question one of btu's decrees.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: NZ - Sitting duck for Japan or others?
btu2012 wrote:
yeahbut wrote:
.....
Don't get so angry man. It's bad for your health. Now go back to enjoying your refugee porn.
Btu
Angry? that's pretty ironic. It's a rare post from you that doesn't have a snide, arrogant quality. It's like reading Monte's posts- even when the point is well-made, and in your case that is often- the way it is phrased is so unpleasant that for me it loses a lot of credibility. I have no idea what the state of mind is that causes this condition(anger? impatience? scorn?)but I doubt it's good for your health...
And now- over to btu for that all-important last word. If he hasn't insisted on having it in a thread somewhere, I'd love someone to point out where...
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Such reputational measures can be surprisingly effective as a disincentive to outsiders.
