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NTBKtrader Intermediate Crude


Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 596
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Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2004 8:40 am Post subject: Oman's peak decline numbers |
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MUSCAT: Oman, which has battled to halt a drop in oil production, is estimating a lower daily output of 750,000 barrels next year, the national economy minister said in remarks published Sunday.
Estimated production for next year is 4.1 percent down on the figure for the first nine months of 2004 and 8.4 percent lower than output for all of last year, said The Times of Oman.
Oman exported 197.4 million barrels of crude in the first nine months of this year, 5.5 percent lower than for 2003.
Daily average production in 2003 was 819,500 barrels, down 8.7 percent from 898,000 the year before.
State-run Petroleum Development Oman, an exploration and production company, last week attributed the drop to a steep decline in its daily output from 840,000 barrels per day in 2000 to 660,000 bpd by the end of last month.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_id=10707 |
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NTBKtrader Intermediate Crude


Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 596
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3695
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Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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Oman had maximum production in 2001. They're depleting a little faster than the global average. If they follow the same path as Trinidad, their 2006 production will be about 70% of peak or 672,700.
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actual index Avg Trinidad UK
Peak 961,000 100 100 100 100
1 898,000 93 94 93 92
2 819,500 85 90 92 86
3 774,428 81 87 82 85
4 750,000 78 85 77 78
5 83 70 |
By the way, I predict that UK will report 2,082 thousand bbl/day (72% of peak) for 2005. Remember where you heard it first. |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3695
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Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:45 pm Post subject: my bad |
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that table came out terrible. Here is another attempt.
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actual index Avg Trinidad UK
Peak 961,000 100 100 100 100
1 898,000 93 94 93 92
2 819,500 85 90 92 86
3 774,428 81 87 82 85
4 750,000 78 85 77 78
5 -- -- 83 70 -- |
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slick50 Tar Sands


Joined: May 05, 2004 Posts: 85
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Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 4:48 pm Post subject: UK oil production 2004 |
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Here's data from www.economagic.com UK is declining at an alarming rate.
2004 01 2041.000
2004 02 1898.000
2004 03 2028.000
2004 04 1966.000
2004 05 1800.000
2004 06 1923.000
2004 07 1818.000
2004 08 1756.000 |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3695
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Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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woah, I am going to be wrong. I figured 72% of peak but it's going to be in the 60's.
Interesting. |
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clv101 Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
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Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: UK oil production 2004 |
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| slick50 wrote: | Here's data from www.economagic.com UK is declining at an alarming rate.
2004 01 2041.000
2004 02 1898.000
2004 03 2028.000
2004 04 1966.000
2004 05 1800.000
2004 06 1923.000
2004 07 1818.000
2004 08 1756.000 |
Those numbers are bouncing around quite a bit... sure the last number in the list is the lowest, but the next one could be back up to 1900+. |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3695
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Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:48 am Post subject: |
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thanks, slick50, for putting us onto that data source.
The even more interesting data is from the USA, which according to that source, is down almost 25% from last year and is now pumping at only 48% of peak, compared to 65% in 2003. |
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