How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 2:52 pm Post subject: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Although I got this response a couple of years ago, I don't think the New Zealand government's peak oil policy has changed. However, those who have been following news here will know that Mallard may lose his job!
Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Quote:
Dear Graeme
Thank you for your email dated 24 March 2004 regarding peak oil and alternative transport fuels.
Putting a date on when oil production will peak is a real headache. It requires data we don't have and assumptions we can't test. Indeed, about the only thing that commentators on this issue agree on is that world oil production will peak and decline some time this century. However I would like to note that your sources of information represent some of the most pessimistic views of world oil supplies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considered to be one of the leading authorities on world energy projections and energy supply issues. In their 2004 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicts that global production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made.
My officials carefully consider a wide range of evidence and information but it should be recognised that mainstream opinion is that oil is not likely to peak this decade. Keep in mind that after the 1970's oil shocks, predictions were for oil to run out by the year 2000.
It is also important when considering the oil market situation, to account for the short term and long term nature of the causes of oil-price rises. The increase in oil prices since 2003 has been attributed to various factors including international political unrest, hurricane damage to refining capacity, demand growth in Asia, and a lack of investment in new capacity. Higher oil prices do not necessarily imply that global oil supplies are running out.
In your letter you call on the Government to establish targets for clean, renewable energy and to establish measures and policies to encourage the efficient use of energy. Promotion and development of renewable energy sources and uptake of energy efficiency measures are priorities for the government. The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (NEECS) sets out two targets, one for energy efficiency and the other for the uptake of renewables. The target for renewable energy includes a
sub-target for the uptake of renewable transport fuels. The Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) has responsibility for
implementing the government's objectives relating to energy efficiency and renewables. Transport sustainability, including the promotion of renewable transport fuels, is a key element of EECA's work programme. If you would like further information on EECA's initiatives and programmes see http://www.eeca.govt.nz.
As part of its climate change policy package, the government has developed the Projects to Reduce Emissions mechanism, which is intended to promote growth in the renewable energy sector and encourage business practices that are less greenhouse gas intensive. The initiative provides incentives for firms to undertake emissions reductions prior to and during the first Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012). The Government has also decided to introduce a carbon tax (on fossil fuels and industrial process emissions, ie. carbon dioxide and fossil methane) from 2007 to create an incentive to reduce emissions. Further information on the projects mechanism and carbon charge can be found at http://www.climatechange.govt.nz.
The New Zealand Transport Strategy sets out a direction for New Zealand's transport system. Sustainability is an underlying principle of the strategy. You may be particularly interested in chapter 6, which outlines our objectives for environmental sustainability including reducing fuel consumption and increasing the use of low energy transport options. For more information, or to view the strategy, go to http://www.beehive.govt.nz/nzts/.
The Government's recently released sustainable energy framework, a cross-government project led by the Ministry of Economic Development, is the best forum to look at overall government energy planning. A copy of the framework can be found at:
You asked specifically about the Government's programme for alternative transport fuels. Encouraging the use of transport biofuels contributes to a number of sustainable development and climate change policy objectives. For example, the NEECS, described above, includes a target for renewable transport fuels of 2 Petajoules a year by 2012. The sustainable energy discussion document recognises the importance of transport biofuels in promoting reliable and affordable energy and taking better care of the environment. In the context of these objectives, the primary transport biofuels currently being considered in Government policy are biodiesel and bioethanol. The Government is also examining further options to support the uptake of transport biofuels such as mandatory biofuels targets, developing appropriate quality standards and subsidies and other forms of financial incentives.
Some may be interested in the comments in this thread too.
The NZ government does have policies just recently announced in response to global warming. These include the gradual introduction of biofuel to gasoline, introduction of electric cars, and banning of future fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power stations. I will post any news I find on further developments on warming policies in this forum. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Sep 28, 2007 Posts: 22 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Tell you what, I would imagine there is a much more advanced understanding these days in the Beehive, judging by the speed at which alternative energy projects and things like rail electrification and biofuels seem to be happening; after literally decades of neglect.
Did you ever see the Kiwiblog (national party blog) debate on peak oil? Was pretty good, although many retarded comments as usual...
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 1:22 am Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
americandream wrote:
Do you actually take these people serious?
As you know, the Prime Minister, Helen Clark, is going to reshuffle her cabinet in a couple of weeks. If there is a new Energy Minister, I will contact this person and not only show Mallard's previous response but point out that even the IEA, whom they respect, has changed its position recently. They state that "growth in oil supply nevertheless fails to meet growth in projected demand by 2011" as pointed out here and here. If the new Minister responds, then I will post the response. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:35 am Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Graeme wrote:
americandream wrote:
Do you actually take these people serious?
As you know, the Prime Minister, Helen Clark, is going to reshuffle her cabinet in a couple of weeks. If there is a new Energy Minister, I will contact this person and not only show Mallard's previous response but point out that even the IEA, whom they respect, has changed its position recently. They state that "growth in oil supply nevertheless fails to meet growth in projected demand by 2011" as pointed out here and here. If the new Minister responds, then I will post the response.
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:58 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
It will be interesting to see their response, if there is one-it's been pretty amazing the way only the Greens have tried to draw attention to the IEA report-this is one conservative body, and it's pessimistic report on the future of our most important energy source has been almost completely ignored...still you have to keep in mind that this is the same govt that embarked on the largest road building projects in a generation just as oil began to peak...
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:20 am Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
The new ministerial portfolios were announced today. David Parker is still the Minister of Energy so I contacted him today. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
My message was referred to the Minister today. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Here is the response from the Minister of Energy:
Quote:
Thank you for your email dated 7 November regarding peak oil.
Since your last email, the Government’s position on peak oil has not changed. We continue to take this issue very seriously and we are committed to preparing for a sustainable future now, to lesson our dependence on oil and to ensure a smooth transition to alternatives when peak in conventional oil production occurs.
The latest reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) do raise serious concerns about the future of world oil production and officials are keeping a close eye on these developments. Of particular significance is the prospect of a “Supply Crunch” being caused by a rapid growth in demand by China and India, as outlined in the IEA’s Energy Outlook 2007.
While it is true that nobody seriously disputes that oil is a non-renewable resource and that a decline in production of cheap and easily accessible oil from traditional sources is inevitable, it is still uncertain when this decline will occur. Even following peak in traditional oil there are alternative sources of oil such as biodiesel and the conversion of tar sands to oil that could be used.
In October, the Government released the New Zealand Energy Strategy (NZES). The NZES is one of a number of initiatives that the Government has in place under the wider sustainability work programme and is designed to move New Zealand towards a more sustainable energy future with a reduced reliance on non-renewable resources, whilst maintaining a secure energy supply.
The transport sector accounts for around 85% of New Zealand’s total oil use. Reducing oil consumption from the transport sector will help to reduce New Zealand’s dependency on oil over the long-term. It will increase the resilience of our transport system and economy to sudden disruptions in oil supply, as well as addressing concerns about global oil supplies and price uncertainty.
A number of actions have been introduced to reduce transport oil demand. In October 2007, the Government introduced the Biofuel Bill to implement a biofuels sales obligation. This would require 3.4% of fuel sold by oil companies to be biofuels by 2012. Voluntary standards for biodiesel have already been developed and comprehensive specifications for biodiesel and ethanol are being developed.
The Government has set a target for New Zealand to be one of the first countries to widely deploy electric vehicles. An expert group on electric vehicles has been established to identify and suggest measures to address barriers to their uptake. The uptake of electric vehicles has the potential to greatly lesson our dependence on imported oil and is particularly suited to New Zealand’s high renewable electricity supply.
You may also be aware that the government is developing an Oil Emergency Response Strategy to ensure that New Zealand is ready to respond to any future disruptions in oil supply. The strategy will ensure that the effects of an oil supply disruption are minimised and that New Zealand meets its obligations as a member of the IEA. The strategy will outline options available when responding to an oil supply disruption, outline roles and responsibilities for action in an emergency and recommend a programme of measures to respond to various ‘levels’ of emergency.
More information on the Energy Strategy and Oil Emergency Response Strategy can be found on the Ministry of Economic Development web site at www.med.govt.nz
Thank you for your correspondence.
Yours sincerely,
Hon David Parker
Minister of Energy
I will post another response from the Minister of Transport later. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:25 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Here is the response from the Minister of Transport:
Quote:
Thank you for your email of 7 November about public transport punctuality and the management of the national and local road network. Your email has been forwarded to me for reply as the issues you raise fall within my portfolio.
As you may be aware, there have been two vital new pieces of legislation put forward this year. The Public Transport Management Bill 2007 and the Land Transport Management Amendment Bill 2007 are deigned to maximise the performances of both public transport services and the government land transport sector.
The Public Transport management Bill 2007, having passed its first reading on the 16 October 2007, is now before the Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee. The Bill will give regional councils greater authority to regulate the public transport services provided in their region, while operators will still maintain the ability to register such services on a commercial basis. The Bill endeavors to help regions to obtain the best value for money in achieving an integrated, safe, responsive and sustainable public transport system, while also enabling fair competition, and a competitive and efficient market for public transport services.
The Bill will enable councils to do what is needed, where it is needed. It will allow them to have a greater influence over commercial bus and ferry services, while ensuring better integration of services and modes. If you would like further information on this Bill, it can be accessed from the Parliament website: www.parliament.govt.nz
Another essential piece of legislation that will affect the management of the national and local road network is the Land Transport Management Amendment Bill 2007. This Bill will create a new funding and planning system for land transport and create the framework for a new Crown entity, the New Zealand Transport Agency. It will also introduce full hypothecation of fuel excise duties to the National Land Transport Fund from 1 July next year. This will ensure that funds collected from road transport users will be used to fund activities that benefit those same users, whether the activities concern roading or public transport.
The legislation will also enable the levying of a regional fuel tax. This will provide a tool regions can use for priority projects that would not otherwise get adequate funding within the desired timeframe. The tax can only be used to provide new public transport infrastructure and new roading projects. If you would like further information on this new legislation, it can also be accessed at the Parliament website mentioned previously.
Thank you for taking the time to write to me. I trust this information shows the positive impact these new Bills will have on our transport network. I am totally of the view that New Zealanders will use public transport if it is convenient and appropriate. Punctuality is an essential ingredient in improving public transport patronage.
Yours sincerely,
Hon Annette King
Minister of Transport
_________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Last edited by Graeme on Tue Jan 01, 2008 10:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Graeme wrote:
Graeme's letter to the minister of energy, november 2007.
Quite frankly, I envy you kiwis. My government is the one thumbing it's nose at Bali. At least your government is taking steps. Also, I can believe that electric cars could really function in New Zealand, with a decent range. _________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:25 am Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
The "steps" being taken, although generally in the right direction, are too little, too late. There continues to be the assumption made that we need economic growth, that we shall continue to have economic growth, that prospects for the future are strong for both ourselves and the world as a whole.
The mainstream media has been almost silent on the issue of Peak Oil over the last few years (almost, due to the exceptions of a couple of Campbell Live shows on TV3 and a BBC show on Prime a while ago). The general expectation among politicians, the media, the business community, and the general public would appear to be much the same as can be expected in any Western Industrialised nation. That, with the appropriate balance between regulation and freedom, greed and ethics, saving and consumption, economic growth is a nigh-on perpetual certainty (save for during periods of natural disasters or the wars that our major trading partners overseas may get involved in now and then).
Both major parties want to build roads. A lot of expensive, fancy new roads. They differ in that Labour want to spend money on public transport as well, whereas National just want roads. Lots of big, flash, fancy, expensive roads.
New Zealand and New Zealanders are planning and preparing for Peak Oil to only a slightly greater extent than the dinosaurs were planning and preparing for the asteroid strike. The "slightly" part being so minimal as to not be likely to make a noticeable difference.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 109 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
Presently. But we are taking greater steps against global warming, which is a part of the solution to PO as well.
I believe that once PO hits the global media, NZ will start to move towards sustainability faster than other western countries, simply because of our size and our lessor dependence on petrol compared to other countries, and because we are already part of the way there - 72% of electricity generation is renewable, and the government already has a goal of 90% by 2020 - that's only 13 (12) years away, hopefully they'll meet it. I also think that the cities here, at least CHCH (since thats all I have experience with) won't have the massive food shortages predicted suggested for cities in other countries (mainly the US here). Sure we have lots of appartments and some big buildings in the cities, but most people in the suburbs have some land, which could be converted towards food production. So could local parks and reserve areas. That's not even counting our existing large food production - most of which we currently export.
One thing you should also consider is that we do have some small local sources of crude oil - not enough for anyone to invade us over, but a good amount to keep us running for a while. There may also be reseviours in the billions range off the south-east coast.
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy
I agree with the positive attributes New Zealand has relative to the rest of the world where Peak Oil is concerned. Relatively low population, high percentage of electricity generation from renewable sources, combination of good soils, varied topography, good rainfall and sunshine leading to large food production surpluses. We should be able to maintain high levels of food production even without the various oil-derived agrichemicals.
All of these factors help to make - in my opinion - New Zealand among the best places to be in the Post Peak Oil era if one wishes to live a dignified life.
However, there are also negative factors which could lead us to having a very tough transition period. These have largely already been covered on these forums, but the most important ones are our very heavy reliance on long-distance international trade for earnings and manufactured goods, reliance on international tourism, and heavy national indebtedness to overseas banks. There appears to be no indication of the New Zealand consumer cutting back on borrowing to support an unsustainable lifestyle. Yes, that will come to an abrupt halt soon, but New Zealanders are not prepared psychologically.
In the USA there have been articles in various magazines and newspapers, reports on CNN and other news channels and websites, and occasional hearings and panels in the two houses of government. In Europe there have been warnings from various politicians as well as news reports through the media. In Australia, again, news reports, and the Australian Senate looked into the situation. Here, in New Zealand, almost silence.
There have been news reports of power companies looking into building more fossil fuelled generation capacity in spite of the government's legislation to the contrary. Discussions over how Whenuapai should be split between military and commercial use as an airport. Debate over how new road building should be funded (the Greens are the only ones speaking against new roads). Complaints from car importing and sales firms regarding the Government's plans to legislate for better standards for used imports. Expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates late next year as global growth prospects and a slowdown in the domestic housing market lead to lower inflation expectations (with little to no mention of the oil price factor). Statements made by car sales firms suggesting that new car buyers do not consider the price of fuel as a factor when deciding which car to buy. Protests from people who don't want to see more wind power generation capacity built. Statements by members of parliament on the need to build better trade relations with big overseas markets. Investments by some businesses in some of those big overseas marktets. Are these the musings of a nation aware of and preparing for the consequences of Peak Oil?
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