How well placed is your area for Peak Oil?

electric_future

I'm in Wellington, which IMHO is going to be a good place to live post-oil for the following reasons:

1) It has the best public transport in NZ. It has a good electrified train network which being upgraded and extended for the first time in 30 years, and a fleet of electric buses which are also soon to be refurbished.

2) Being the capital, it has huge numbers of core government jobs which are presumably more stable than jobs in the private sector. It also has the best educated and highest earning population in the country. It has some skilled light industry, and a much-heralded 'knowledge economy' with loads of IT workers. Local politics are reasonably enlightened- there was even a peak oil candidate in the local body elections.

3) The city has a compact walkable CBD and a large apartment dwelling population- there is not the room for suburban sprawl due to geographic constraints. Much of the old city is considered very desirable- and priced accordingly, although rents are still cheap.

4) It is relatively socially cohesive, with a degree of tolerance and not as much scary gang violence as some other places in NZ. Politically Wellington is moderately left-leaning which will presumably help with the response to the new energy paradigm, such as reintroduction of light rail and fuel rationing. (The right-wing in NZ still denies global warming, and PO isn't even on the radar. They hate public transport with a passion, because it diverts money from roads.)

5) Long term, Wellington is close to trade routes, food production areas, fishing and forestry areas, and has ample hydroelectricity from the South Island, with the enormous potential of wind energy and even solar power to be seen in the future. It also has PLENTY of fresh water, too much sometimes!

While it won't emerge unscathed from an associated economic downturn, especially in the overpriced property market; historically the places which get hit worst in NZ have been the rural towns- I think Wellington will fare much better post-peak than small-town NZ, at least in the medium term.

(As for transport, in most of NZ you are STUCK without a car, even in the major cities and towns. Such is the lack of forethought and planning in this country Mad

)

So how do you rate your city/town/dot on the map?

(first post in the new forum! Cheers mods!)

dooberheim

I am in the Midwest US, near a lot of Amish (who unfortunately have become as dependent on fossil fuels for their livelihood as any of us). It's a moderately left leaning college town in the middle of Republican country. Decent farmland down by the river, but a lot of the rest of it has become depleted. Corn and soybean country.

The University would be a great resource. Hundreds of thousands of square feet of greenhouse space. Animal husbandry areas. Lots of deer and other game around. Problem is the council members are still hooked on economic growth rather than survival. I was going to run, actually, but due to threats and other personal issues I decided not to. I may still however, if certain things don't seem to be happening.

We can survive, especially without all the college students demanding services and infrastructure. Maybe mow down a lot of the student slums and put in gardens.

DK
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Cornelian

Great to see the Australian and New Zealand forum up! Smile

I live in Tasmania. I think we're pretty well situated ... well, yes, there are going to be some god-awful shortages for a while, but overall I am glad I am here (I moved from the Australian mainland 3 years ago). Overall the island is pretty hospitable - very good agricultural lands and a small population. Water is a problem in some areas, but generally if you live near one of the big rivers you'd do OK.

I live in Hobart - the capital city. As cities go it is very small and very compact. I don't have a car and manage easily with either walking or public transport - everything is close enough to get to via shank's pony. We have a good trainline that runs through the state between the major ports. We have lots of good ports - Hobart itself has a terrific deep water port and a thriving fishing industry. We are surrounded by good agricultural lands and an awful lot of wood if we had to revert to wood heating. (The majority of houses in Tasmania are still heated with wood, anyway. The infrastructure is already there.)

For my own situation, I live in the inner suburbs - and yet have half an acre. I have a good food garden growing and can live off that. I live in an old Victorian house that was built in the non-electric age and was built to make maximum use of solar heating via placement of windows and orientation of the house - it can be converted back to non-electric easily, although I'd love to be able to save up enough for off grid solar power (hideously expensive here).

I moved here because I was getting more and more uncomfortable about what was happening in the world. I hadn't heard about peak oil (the term) but I was worried about the oil future and the terrible vulnerability of western society to sudden shortages. I was also concerned about climate change which is currently wreaking havoc on the mainland. Climate change should have less impact on Tasmania (so far as anyone can make any predictions) than on the mainland. I am within 5 minutes of the beach, but the sea would need to rise 16 metres to reach my front door (and at the age of 50, I am fairly sure I won't live to see that Wink

).

So, I am fairly comfortable about where I am. It isn't going to be idyllic if things get bad very quickly, but I think (hope) we could adapt fairly quickly. I'm certainly better off here than in any of the huge urban centres on the mainland.

Judgie

Cornelian

LOL Judgie. At least we have lots of wood ... erm pulp ... erm ... Wink

Guest

Cornelian

Can one burn pulp? Eat it? Use it as mulch? Does anyone else know how scary those logging trucks are when one is behind you on a mountain road?

Enough rhetorical questions for the day. I am off to contemplate my food stores.

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 701

we're in Brisbane and I haven't got any idea if this is a good post PO place. It's not a walkable city, however we've plenty of huge roads which would be great for cycling but I think we must wait for years that Aussies give up driving. The advantage is that everybody has a garden and at least in our suburb people know each other.

roccman

The crashstead is geographically isolated.

Big game and fish.

Tons of firewood.

25' water table.

Very small and tight knit community of farmers.

Fully preloaded with preps.

Less than a tank of gas away from current location.
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We are going back to roccland - me

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 701

Hi Cornelian, Tasmania sounds good, but you have cold winters there you nead heating in winter?
House and land prices are maybe a bit lower than in Brisbane.
But work??

flametree · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 15, 2005 Posts: 52

Hi Cornelian,

I am from Hobart. My family is still there and like you I think it
will be ok. We are planning to move back soonish. Well I am, I just have to convince my significant other!

We have already looked at Molesworth, maybe rRchmond or New norfolk. (I went to school there).

Any thoughts?

s0cks

If the worst case scenario plays out then I don't think any city is going to be "well placed". I live in Auckland at the moment. Its got no hope.

Should oil supplies decline rapidly, so will GDP, and a depression will set in. Businesses will quickly go out of business and unemployment will rocket. In a city, this means a lot of people with nowhere to go. If you have a public sector job perhaps you will be OK for a while. But walking through streets of abandoned shops and cars while people sleep under doorways isn't really my idea of fun.

NZ's rural towns have suffered in the past because they have always relied on cheap energy for work. Out of city dwellers, farms, industry, etc. However, its less likely to be as bleak a place to live as a city. There is likely to be more community spirit and available land/water for basic needs. You may not be able to earn a wage, but at least you'll have friendly neighbours and be away from the rioting and violence of the city.

Of course this depends on your view of what peak oil will do. I honestly believe its far too late for any city to shift from oil without suffering and pain. Its so integral to the city design. You are only looking at the surface picture. If air, shipping, freight, international trade, etc starts to decline and/or stop then a cities life blood is cut off. It doesn't matter if you have electric buses if there's no jobs to get to, no shops selling clothes, and no cinemas showing films.

The question your really asking is. What location is "well placed" for high energy prices on the plateau of oil production? Wellington may survive longer than Auckland but eventually it too will be unsustainable.

s0cks

Double post. Slow internet Sad

electric_future

Socks- I guess I'm thinking on a shock basis of very little fuel being available at all- there will be plenty of work in the long term as all those labour saving machines are replaced with people!

Also I think the whole concept of pubic transport is foreign to the average Aucklander, hence your doom and gloom! whereas within Wellington, I can get almost anywhere in a reasonable time for a few dollars, often without using any oil at all thanks to electric buses/trains. Sure it's often faster to drive, but commuting is easier on PT. In Auckland it's just not possible- yet.

I also worry about the possibility of unemploment and violence etc, but it seems historically that the rural areas get hit with this much harder than urban areas for one reason or another, this is the pattern over the last few recessions.

South AK will be even more hellish than usual, but initially I think the cities will be better places for employment than small town nz.

One thing that will cause social strife is if/when property prices fall back to their long term average (i.e. fall about 40%) this will make a lot of people bankrupt overnight. Personally I won't be upset, I would love to own my own place! However this will affect the entire country and really destroy a lot of people, especially those who have been suckered into "investing" in property for their retirement. My generation is not going to be buying McMansions 100km from the city for $1M, I'm afraid.

s0cks

I'm actually from England so I know all about PT Smile

In Britain it was considered shocking. Now in Auckland, trust me, I know how diabolical PT is here. I agree, PT in Wellington is a hundred times better, but I still have my doubts.

The difference between you and I, is that you see Peak Oil as an inconvenience, a challenge, a stepping stone, and then we can continue life as normal. Business as usual.

I fail how to see how this can happen in a civilization built on oil for the last 150 years. I fail to see how those cities will get food and goods for their citizens. Foodtown and Pak n Save won't have shelves bursting with food from China. And local produce from farms using oil based fertilizers/pesticides, trucks, tractors, etc... won't be making full and timely deliveries to satisfy demand. Timely and efficient waste disposal services won't exist. No clothes from the US, no cheap electronics from Taiwan, etc..

Even if you can work on past peak oil. What next when you can't trade internationally on such a massive scale? There is no electric ship freighters. NZ will have to live of its local resources and import less and less. Then what? We strip our forests of wood, our land of ore and metals? Do you see? We cannot continue to live as we do on a finite planet.

Ah well I could go on for hours. I guess that cities may provide shelter, food, fuel, etc... in the short-med term but only by governmental rationing. It will be a depressing place to live. I would rather at least try and grow my own food on a bit of land away from the cities.