responding now?

liquid · Coal Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 5

I'll admit to being a newcomer to this idea of peak oil. I have very little in the way of knowledge about it, or the mechanisms and models through which it will work. Here are some questions I have if you dont mind:

1) If this were all going to pan out in the next 5 years, would policy changes not already be hitting the table? Would we not be seing fluctuations in the markets, and serious movement by Oil companies?

2) Do you really think the change will be such a drastic one? It doesn't seem plausible that we go from basically "unlimited" oil, to basically no oil within a matter of 5 years.

With that said, I do believe that PO will have a massive impact on our lives. Is there any way we can respond now, and be on the right end of the table when this happens? Everyone seems to say it would be a good idea to hedge the markets and so forth. If post WWI Germany taught us anything it's that money will be of no value anyhow.

kambei · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 31 Location: UK

pilferage · Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 2:26 pm Post subject:

liquid · Coal Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 5

This is what I'm not fully understanding. I'm looking at this more from a sociological and philosophical side, because I've never been much of a science guru.

However, the whole idea that Peak Oil will create this massive "destruction" of society.... views human beings as inherently irrational beings. People may be greedy, but they are still rational. If those in charge of Oil production saw this doom coming, would they not be the first to integrate themselves into other ventures, thus sustaining the viability of their company? A friend of mine is very into this "doomday" aspect of PO, and believes that massive populations will die, and only those with money will survive. First off, in that sort of a society, money would be worthless. Secondly, wouldn't those with knowledge of this be doing something to help themselves? What have you as "people in the know" done so far to prepare?

Guest · Guest

Guest · Guest

Ok, now that I have that off my chest, I'll take a shot at your questions. Don't expect me to have all the answers (remember we are all at heart, irrational Cool

)

1) If those in charge of Oil production saw this doom coming, would they not be the first to integrate themselves into other ventures, thus sustaining the viability of their company?

That's an easy one ... how many people do you know when faced with a difficult or impossible situation will simply ignore it and try to wish it away ? From my experiences on this planet, I would say most of them. If you feel you are not in this category, then congratulations, you might be one of the few with the intellectual apacity and psychological makeup to comprehend and accept the problem. I suggest doing a search on this site for INTP or INTJ, there is an discussion ongoing.

Remember Lincoln's quote about fooling all the people all the time.

2) A friend of mine is very into this "doomday" aspect of PO, and believes that massive populations will die, and only those with money will survive.

There are a number of people here who feel as your friend does. The part about money, though proves my point about the irrationality of humans perfectly, tho. What other organism would, ehen faced with the prospect of it's eventual demise, believe wholeheartedly that survival depends on whoever has the most pieces of paper ???

As for the timeline for problems, everyone has their own opinions. You read more, you'll see the gamut.

For preparations, that depends almost entirely on a person's beliefs in the timeframe and severity. Personally, I believe we have 10 to 15 years before the S hits the F, and I believe PO will be dieoff level severe. I am preparing by staying where I am, working hard at saving money to buy land and tools, and at the same time, working to learn as many skills as possible in the time allotted.

RonBonnell · Guest

Hmmm, I would say a reptile is rational. It would exhibit irrational behavior if it did something like jump into the water when it could not swim etc. Most animals exhibit rational behavior. We would think that whales don't when they beach themselves, but there may be a reason.

I would say rational behavior is based upon what they think the consequences are. Why is it irrational to kill 100M people? It is immoral but may not be irrational.

Its rational for democrats to continue to elect politicians who promise to take money from others and give it to them. Its greedy, immoral, and may be a detriment to society as a whole, but it may be entirely rational for those who don't want to work hard but still want to benefit from every one else's labor.

If people can come to grips that their actions can lead to the destruction of their society and the future of their children, then they can act like every other animal for self-protection.

What you are really dealing with here, is if people can think long term enough. Unlike perhaps some other animal, can they see beyond what they have lived with all of their life and envision some other consequence?

They probably can, but then it comes down to what you believe can happen, and it is much more pleasant to think that someone will figure out a solution then to think of how you are going to survive eating beetles and dodging bullets. It would not be irrational to think that someone else will figure a solution. People may come to a wrong conclusion skewed by their hope, but it is a rational conclusion.

All we can do is to offer evidence and argument. It may not even be irrational for them not to want to hear it. Because they know it doesn't do them well to hear pessimistic predictions and live in fear. People can act rationally. They need all the facts and they need to be convinced it is important to consider the facts.

Whitecrab · Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:44 pm Post subject:

The only thing peak oil can tell you for sure is that soon oil supply will fail to meet demand, and then begin an unstoppable fall. It does not mean "no oil," nor will it likely cause an instant collapse in society or anything. More likely, we will be taken by surprise, prices for many things will rise, and there will be great economic fallout, but there will be no sudden overnight destruction of anything.

As to why people are not preparing, well there are conflicting view from "experts." The reasons government agencies and members of OPEC overstate our abilities are a bit complex, but basically almost every politician and economist listens to "experts" who paint ridiculously rosey pictures. People just take a quick look at the amount of oil in the ground, at current consumption, and lead to believe oil depeltion is going to be a problem "someday" - decades away, and outside the timescale of most politicians and business leaders. So our leaders vainly drop some cash into hydrogen, but mostly assume the market will work itself out.
_________________
"Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003

0mar · Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2004 7:32 pm Post subject:

Individuals are rational. Groups of individuals are not.

Peak oil makes no claims about society, die-offs etc etc. All peak oil does say is that after 50% of the world's recoverable oil has been pumped, the next 50% will be harder and more expensive to obtain while production itself will decline terminally. Unless there is a massive oil project (by massive, I mean several billion barrel fields in the same year) coming online post-peak, we will never produce as much as we did in the peak.

liquid · Coal Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 5

liquid · Coal Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 5

Guest · Guest

If you can't comprehend this most basic of facts (the irrationality of humans in general), then we literally have nothing to discuss ... we dont have any common frame of reference.

And I find it enormously ironic that all of you here are so strenuously defending the rationality of humans on a message board devoted to discussing an irrational phenomenom (PO) created purely as a result of the irrational actions of irrational humans.

That's not rational.

Neither are any of you.

Guest · Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:39 pm Post subject:

TWilliam · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 1705

Hmmm...

Well, Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of Law defines the adjective "rational" thusly:

1 : having reason or understanding
2 : relating to, based on, or guided by reason, principle, fairness, logic, a legitimate state interest, or a consideration of fact

Considering my personal research over the years, coupled with my direct experience of some thousands of people, I would have to say that "rational" does NOT describe the vast majority of humans.

Human beings by and large are motivated primarily by their emotions. Rarely do principle, fairness, logic, and especially facts have much bearing on the choices I see people making on a regular basis. Most don't even want to consider any information that disturbs their comfort, let alone take any time to actually explore it's accuracy or implications.

Hell, just look at the outcome of the recent US elections. Rational my A$$... Rolling Eyes