Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1855 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:11 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're Fark....except India and China who will rule the world. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:03 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Micki wrote:
I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're Fark....except India and China who will rule the world.
China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.
Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned. _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:10 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Concerned wrote:
Micki wrote:
I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're Fark....except India and China who will rule the world.
China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.
Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned.
Especially when you consider that it is the energy intensive green revolution which is allowing them (for now) to keep up with their food needs _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4542 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Quote:
As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.
Corn Grower's Association Whining About High Fertilizer Prices
1. yes you are right fertlizers are made from natural gas.
2. but there is still reason to worry:
and
Now this does not need to be a problem in the next few years but we still have a real problem. A problem of what gets cut first, a problem that creates winners and losers and is a great atmosphere for disgruntled losers to act out. Again as it has been discussed in the starving metaphor thread, we may not feel the brunt of that squeeze first. We have options that India and China do not.
Because the world is not going to end tomorrow (knocks on wood) does not mean that there is not a long term problem which will lead to a reversal of the green revolution. _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Tyler_JC wrote:
As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.
Fertilizer maker Agrium Inc. said Tuesday it will close its nitrogen fertilizer operations in Kenai, Alaska, laying off 100 employees.
The company cited a shortage of natural gas supply. Agrium (nyse: AGU - news - people ) said it offered "competitive prices and incentives" to encourage development of natural gas supplies in Alaska's Cook Inlet, but was unable to do so. It purchased 53 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2001, but this year could only purchase 10 billion cubic feet.
*************************************
West Europe is in strong Decline and Gasprom=Russia will be in 2010!
In Germany the natural gas price / kWh is allmost equal with oil price
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1855 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Quote:
China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.
Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned.
Hey, no need to tell me. I just translated. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Granted, this will mean more jobs lost in the soon-to-be fertilizer importing nations and more trade deficits between Saudi Arabia and its trading partners, but we are not suddenly going to run out of fertilizer just because we don't have the gas to produce it in the West. (even though we have plenty of gas to produce it and will for many decades to come).
I'm not trying to hijack the thread, I'm merely arguing against the relationship between Peak Oil and Peak Food.
The situation in Europe can be traced to unusually dry weather, market meddling (thank you CAP), and the push for biofuels.
I believe that over time, the world will see the economic impossibility of ethanol and abandon the entire program. Either that, or consumer protest will force governments to abandon it. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1855 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 8:03 pm Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Quote:
I'm not trying to hijack the thread, I'm merely arguing against the relationship between Peak Oil and Peak Food.
The relationship doesn't have to be entirely black or white.
First of all, with peak oil, transporting food and runnig agri business is becoming more expensive, so less of the food that is in the shops can be afforded.
In an extension this can lead to a negative cycle where expensive food isn't bought leading to farmers selling at loss, closing business or moving into something that can be produced cheaply.
In any case in the end there will be less to choose from.
Secondly, supply shortage of oil leads to higher demand for NG.
Given that Peak NG is only a few years after PO, we will see this further inflatting costs on food and at some point there will be competition for the NG for electricity etc. Especially from the European countries.
The trend therefore points towards higher costs and less selection and at some point less energy available for production.
If we can adjust to the changes by growing more locally/home it may not be as big of a problem as some think, but what is worrying is once again the lack of official debate about PO and it's possible impact, thus allowing people less time to adjust. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:32 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Judging by various reports and news snippets, the globe seems to have allready passed the Peak Food (global grain stocks falling down, falling down), at least demand-supply wise. Practically simultaneously with Peak Oil. Yeehaa!!! When will Peak Food demand destruction start really hitting?
Wife just back from Greece. 10-30% yearly "inflation" in basic groceries.
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:51 am Post subject: Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2
Years ago the EU produced too much grain that lead to a classic 'grain mountain' (along with butter and wine 'lakes' etc). One response to this was to have farmers take land out of production. This autumn in response to the dropping world-wide grain storage, the EU has agreed to temporarily suspend this programme of having land out of production...so next year expect more land in the EU to be given over to wheat production.
The winter wheat in the field I can see from my window is a beautiful shade of green now, spring-like in the midst of all the yellows of the autumn leaves and the browns of dead grasses. I have only been here a couple of years, but in neither of the two previous years did the farmer use that field for winter wheat [ie planted in the autumn, but strong enough to survive the snows and frosts of winter] _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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