The article uses an optimistic approach. Perhaps they are correct.
And yet, the trend of oil prices has been up. We can look at global political allignments, and one interpretation is that they are driven by oil.
In the end, one places one's bets and one takes one's chances. My bet is more on the side of Peak Oil being at hand. You might wish to consider Matthew Simmons' views before you make up your mind. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
This guy seemed to originally believe in peak oil being imminent, and now doubts that this is the case. Again, pointing out that reserve figures are growing all the time...
These arguments and figures have been refuted at length here and other places. For example:
Quote:
The major media focus with myopic intensity on conventional crude reserves, ignoring stunning reserves of oil located in tar sands and oil shale. At best, this is difficult to comprehend.
Not too hard to comprehend if one does the EROEI work. That and the ability to meet or even match coventional oil production is woefully short, not to mention the enviromental costs and the huge requirements of water and existing energy required to extract it. It is not that we are running out of energy resources, it is that we are reaching our limit in the ability to meet demand no matter what we do or try to develop.
Quote:
But by far the largest potential reservoir of future oil is held in oil shale.
This has been shown to be an energy sink, in that it takes more energy to extract it than is there.
JD, do a search of this site for postings related and you will find a wealth of info.
MQ _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2004 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: Confused
JD wrote:
http://www.lesjones.com/posts/000863.shtml
This guy seemed to originally believe in peak oil being imminent, and now doubts that this is the case. Again, pointing out that reserve figures are growing all the time...
Inflated is a better word. Shell just got it's hands slapped and had to reduce their stated reserves by 20%. OPEC's quota system allows members to sell their oil based upon proven reserves. Many of the new reserve numbers came about following no known discoveries of new oil.
And even if reserves are increasing, demand is outstripping them. We are consuming 3 to 4 barrels of oil for every one we find. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Thanks, MonteQuest! You've said what I'd have said, and a lot of others, too, I suspect.
I, too, wish I could believe the optimists. But I can't. Too much fact in the way! And the wishers, gullible, and people with a stake in believing the skeptics (like corporate & government sorts), will keep insisting that all is well--or at least not as bad as all that--right through the crash, the die-off, etc. I've followed the battle for truth on Global Warming and Climate Change, too. The skeptics there make me see the skeptics here as deja vu all over again....
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:25 pm Post subject:
Unless theres a giant 500-600 billion barrel of oil just laying around, I doubt we will find anymore significant findings. As Campbell has said "There is only a finite amount of oil and the industry has found about 90% of it."
And we won't run out of oil ever. It's just that the production of oil will be in permanent decline and our industrial/financial machine requires 2% or so growth in oil to be successful. Thus, demand outstrips supply and bad things happen globally.
At the end of the article referenced above they give some links including one for the office of Naval Petroleum and Shale Oil Reserves-US Dept. of Energy.
The link has an article by this office indicating that they believe conventional oil will peak sometime before 2020, but oil shale can step in and make up the shortfall. Maybe it can or maybe it can't, but it's pretty interesting to see a US government agency endorsing the idea of conventional peak oil.
Maybe the deep-earth gas theory is correct after all. We've known for decades that existing Saudi fields are filling back up from somewhere, and the Russians have written about a thousand papers over the past fifity years arguing that oil doesn't come from primordial life but is merely trapped hydrogen and carbon like you'd find on any planetary body. I mean, you'd expect the first and fourth most abundant elements in the solar system to show up somehow, and the thermodynamically stable form of carbon and hydrogen a hundred or so kilometers down is in fact petroleum. All this may be true, or maybe not, but it's certainly interesting.
It's amazing that Saudi and Russian oil fields are filling back up, but US and North Sea reserves are in decline
An economy based on exponential growth, a fractional reserve banking system and an end of cheap oil is what the Peak oil problem is all about.
Unless theres a giant 500-600 billion barrel of oil just laying around, I doubt we will find anymore significant findings.
The World Nut Daily article essentially said that. How's this for hyperbole:
"since recent deep oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico has identified a huge vat of oil."
I'd like to comment on the following points in the article:
Move forward to the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which prompted the highly respected journal Foreign Affairs to publish an article on "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf is Here."
In many ways, the oil cris of the 1970s was a mini depression. How did we ultimately get out of this crisis? Eventually the oil embargo subsided and oil prices dropped to more reasonable levels and even reached an all-time low in 1998 (when you factor inflation), period known as the "dot-com Clinton New Economy boom".
Also, there's the fact that afterwards, many households required 2 incomes in order to maintain the same standard of living that existed in the 1950s when the "man of the house" could work in a factory for 40 hours a week safely secure in his job while living the "American dream".
In 1981, a respected textbook on economic geology predicted that the United States was entering a 125-year-long energy gap, expected to be at its worst in the year 2000 with dire consequences to our standard of living
Actually this prophecy came to pass in many ways. Oil prices started to go up around this time (2000) and the dot-com bust created a lot of economic hardship that still exists to this day.
The only thing wrong with that prediction is that the worst is yet to come. Yes, the economy might eventually recover giving us another brief period of prosperity that will prove all of us doomsayers wrong, but this will be a fleeting period at best (as it was in 1998).
It's fairly obvious to me that the economic and social trends of the past 35 years are all co-related to the rise in energy costs. In the 1950s lifting costs were 1 barrel used for every 40 barrels of oil produced. That number is down to 1 barrel for every 4 produced.
Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 892 Location: San Francisco, California
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:37 pm Post subject:
Do I know that oil is going to peak in 2005? Do I know that oil is going to peak in the next five years? Well, actually, no I don't. I'm not a geologist or an economist or a mathematician. I'm just a guy with a liberal arts degree and a better than average B.S. detector. Unfortunately, this issue, one that I am completely untrained to deal with, has the potential to affect my life and the lives of everyone around me.
I can tell the difference between solid analysis and political pronouncements. Claims like, "Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This estimate is very conservative," are political, not scientific statements. They are not backed up by solid figures, analysis, or explanation of where they expect to find that oil.
One contrast I find particularly convincing is that the folks who claim that oil is about to peak (Deffeyes, ASPO) provide detailed figures, analysis, and point out places where their numbers could be wrong. Those who deny peak oil tend to be rather fuzzy about where the extra oil is coming from. The calls for reserve transparency and better numbers are coming from folks like Matthew Simmons, who believe that oil is about to peak.
One contrast I find particularly convincing is that the folks who claim that oil is about to peak (Deffeyes, ASPO) provide detailed figures, analysis, and point out places where their numbers could be wrong. Those who deny peak oil tend to be rather fuzzy about where the extra oil is coming from.
Well now isn't that how it works tho'? "If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance (by refuting the facts), baffle 'em with bullsh**!"
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