Record ice loss in Arctic

Tanada · Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:31 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

While our current civilization might fall apart saying there will be no historians 5 or 200 years from now requires extinction of the species, which I firmly beleive is not acheivable.
_________________
Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov

anagami · Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:54 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

gnm · Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:58 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Tanada · Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Tanada · Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Just skimming along a touch above last year at this date. When do Ya'all think we will decisively cross over and have less ice by date than we had last year?
_________________
Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov

Troyboy1208 · Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Hard to tell. Could be June or so

dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1063

Last year had a high pressure weather system that brought in warm air over some of the arctic last year, if those conditions are not repeated this year may not break last years record. Breaking the 2005 record by a significant margin but not topping 2007 would still come close to confirming the trend.

While I would say that breaking the 2007 record is likely I would not comit myself to it.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 423

While the particular weather pattern in the summer of 2007 did contribute to the record ice cover loss it was not the primary factor. The change in the Arctic currents has been responsible for the massive loss of old ice. The flushing (which requires the old ice to be broken up during the winter when it usually binds) of the old ice this past winter has been dramatic and clearly has nothing to do with the summer weather pattern which did not persist into the winter. Even if it is a really cold (overcast) summer the new ice is going to be undermined by warm currents.

Too many media stories on the Arctic ice loss don't bother to even mention the role of the ocean circulation change. As such they are just more infotainment.

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1277

I agree with Troyboy that it could be June or even a bit earlier. Once you really start getting that albedo feedback working on that thinner-than-ever ice, I think the melting will become quite dramatic. But then again, maybe some unforeseen negative feedback will kick in just in time to save the day?

It's all pretty grim stuff to speculate about.

Troyboy1208 · Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

The fact that were talking about the Arctic is disconcerting enough. We need to get back to the mean surface area and fast if we are going to reverse this trend. This is uncharted territory. As the guy from NOAA said from Day After Tomorrow said "All our models are worthless" How do you predict something thats never happened before? There are so many variables to account for. This could be a good thing as maybe some variable will cause this whole process to reverse itself. However the last 20 years or so does not look good. The implication if the science is wrong just means that the scientists missed something and look a bit silly for panicking. But what if they are right? What is at stake if the predictions come to fruition?

Tanada · Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Monthly update from NSIDC is up today, a long article i am not going to quote much of here. NSIDC update

Troyboy1208 · Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

I was dismayed at the prospect of this summer. One of the things that disturbed me was really the lack of any piece of data saying that this trend is going to reverse. Worse, the situation in the arctic is changing so rapidly that their forecast models could be inaccurate. This is what strikes me as disturbing. Also based on research 50% of the current one year ice has to last the summer in order to prevent setting a new record minimum. Only 30% of first year ice typically survives. Although 75% of multiyear ice survives we saw a massive flushing of that ice over the last year. Barring some crazy weather pattern with a cooler ocean I feel this year will be worst than last years.
Thank you Tanada for this update. I am anxious to see what the month of May produces. Even a small slowdown in melting could help this acceleration towards and ice free arctic. Another disturbing estimate was that shipping through the arctic would happen 15 days earlier than in the past. Thats a huge deal. Great for shipping...but what fate for the planet?

Tanada · Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic

Everything about this just screams faster faster faster to me, despite the fact that the ice level has been bobbling up and down for a few days the overall trend of recent years is relentless.

Personally I think the Albedo shift has happenned and May will be a very interesting month. As someone pointed out (sorry not sure who) the thin first year ice is semi-translucent and allows sunlight to penetrate into the water below, causing heating from both sides. In the past this has always lead to a high melt percentage for first year ice, and this year we have a high abundance of just that. 2nd, 3rd and 4th year ice have all declined steeply due to the flushing through the straits, which in turn means even in the best case scenario it would take several years of low ice melt summers for things to move back to where they were in 2000. As it is, even if the current turns around tonight and the flushing effectively stops there is only about 1/3rd the 2nd, 3rd and 4th year ice there was in 2000. Barely any 2nd year ice survived the winter, and if we have a melt season on the scale of last year there might not be any left by the time winter freeze set in in October 2008.
_________________
Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov

Tanada · Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:16 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic