Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:26 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Alcassin wrote:
Energy Unlimited:
I'm an "agressive atheist", I think that religion is irrational motive to explain things, but moreover it is an excuse for commiting atrocities. No matter what religion offers it is pain in the ass.
Poles are religious. This really stinks, and makes me single, each time I choose, each time I hear, feel and suffer from catholic bullshit.
I am also atheist, albeit not an aggressive one.
If I am left not bothered by religious folk, I really don't care what they do.
However, if I am coerced to practice religion, I would pull out some pretending game and meantime exploit feelings of believers to my own, often cynical ends.
That is what large proportion of church hierarchy is probably doing in any case.
You are probably realizing by now, that transparent secular society is to collapse with PO arrival.
Peoples will close ranks and refer to their irrational beliefs once real troubles are felt.
Clergy will also provide explanation, that all those pain arrived, because peoples had turned away from God, so now they are facing God's penalty...
So you may not have to worry about Inquisition, but your grad-grandchildren - who knows?
Quote:
But anyway - feudalism is rather a system where peasantry belongs to land, they cannot be expelled but also they cannot move without permission of landlord.
So in political theory you propose agrarianism. (But if you like to call it "feudalism" no problem) Sure, I think this will be inevitable, but I think that city will have some industry - like chemical, biological and so on, during wars - the need or culture will be much deeper. It will be also great time for newspapers.
OK, we may call it agrarianism.
IMO many peoples will be essentially bound to land and will have to suffer abuse of those more powerful, but not because they will have no legal right to leave, but because there will be literally nowhere to go for huge majority of them.
So being formally free, they will be still subjected to neofeudal exploitation.
Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bioman wrote:
-kicking out the anti-European Brits; they are an American colony and they want it to be so
Kicking out the strongest military power, the financial capital of Europe and second strongest economic power in Europe - good idea.
Although we are close to the US- and rightly so, they are our former colony and supported us in two world wars against Germany - we are hardly an American colony. US imperialism is disliked as much in London as Paris. The 'close relationship' is over now Brown has taken office and Blair’s only intention was to try to change the US from the inside. Given he got them to drop the 3rd world debt and, finally, admit to climate change, he did ok. Schroder and Chirac would have not achieved this in a million years.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3687 Location: over here
Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
mkwin wrote:
Bioman wrote:
-kicking out the anti-European Brits; they are an American colony and they want it to be so
Kicking out the strongest military power, the financial capital of Europe and second strongest economic power in Europe - good idea.
I don't agree with it either. The argument Bioman makes is born out of a similar emotion that makes some Brits scream against the EU; it doesn't have much to do with reasoning. That being said, the English tabloid headlines about Europe haven't gone unnoticed in Europe over the years and I guess those haven't helped the way "continentals" look at Britland. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 4:12 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
mkwin wrote:
Bioman wrote:
-kicking out the anti-European Brits; they are an American colony and they want it to be so
Kicking out the strongest military power, the financial capital of Europe and second strongest economic power in Europe - good idea.
I don't agree with it either. The argument Bioman makes is born out of a similar emotion that makes some Brits scream against the EU; it doesn't have much to do with reasoning. That being said, the English tabloid headlines about Europe haven't gone unnoticed in Europe over the years and I guess those haven't helped the way "continentals" look at Britland.
The EU has a bad perception among the public because the Franco-German alliance built the EU around themselves. There have been some attempts to rectify it by the use of the 'E3' strategy in diplomacy and other matters but the perception is ingrained. Might I also remind you the French and Dutch rejected the constitution.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3687 Location: over here
Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
mkwin wrote:
The EU has a bad perception among the public because the Franco-German alliance built the EU around themselves. There have been some attempts to rectify it by the use of the 'E3' strategy in diplomacy and other matters but the perception is ingrained. Might I also remind you the French and Dutch rejected the constitution.
Not sure what you meant by the rejection of the constitution. I do think (as I have stated repeatedly) that the EU should focus on economic matters, or things that really warrant a European approach, like immigration (arguably this is not as important to England, it being an Island).
Also, Brittish politics have always kept a distance from Europe themselves, it's not like they were kept out, so the French-German axis is more the doing of English than anything else in my mind. Also, the whole French-German thing has been of diminishing importance ever since the UK joined and more and more so with every expansion of the Union. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
mkwin wrote:
The EU has a bad perception among the public because the Franco-German alliance built the EU around themselves. There have been some attempts to rectify it by the use of the 'E3' strategy in diplomacy and other matters but the perception is ingrained. Might I also remind you the French and Dutch rejected the constitution.
Not sure what you meant by the rejection of the constitution. I do think (as I have stated repeatedly) that the EU should focus on economic matters, or things that really warrant a European approach, like immigration (arguably this is not as important to England, it being an Island).
Also, Brittish politics have always kept a distance from Europe themselves, it's not like they were kept out, so the French-German axis is more the doing of English than anything else in my mind. Also, the whole French-German thing has been of diminishing importance ever since the UK joined and more and more so with every expansion of the Union.
The EU constitution proposed in 2006 (I think) was rejected at referendum by the French and the Dutch. The UK and Poland would have probably rejected it as well but the point is we are not the only ones. Immigration is a very important issue to the UK as we have one of the highest immigration rates in the EU – approximately 500,000 per year. Being an island is irrelevant when you have ferries, the channel tunnel and cheap planes. While the France-German block has definitely weakened and, as I said before, the focus is now on including Britain in the power-bloc i.e. the E3, but the impression in the minds of the public is ingrained from the 70’s and 80’s when this wasn’t the case. This is where the Euro skepticism comes from and I think European leaders recognise that.
Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Today 1 Euro is worth 1.3473 U.S. dollars
As long as the Euro has value the EU will survive.
If the Euro loses all value then the EU will die. _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 819 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:16 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
mkwin wrote:
The EU constitution proposed in 2006 (I think) was rejected at referendum by the French and the Dutch.
I don't know what issues the Dutch had with it, but as I recall the French rejected it on the basis that it gave far too much protection to corporations, which they considered an Anglo-Americanization of the Union, shifting the locus of rights from actual persons to virtual ones. On that basis, I applaud them. That nod to Britain's nod to the United States effectively killed the constitution, and I'm not unconvinced the Britons who argued for it didn't plan it that way.
mkwin wrote:
Although we are close to the US- and rightly so, they are our former colony and supported us in two world wars against Germany
Come on; they came in the last five minutes of the first one, just long enough to run up a vast pile of Allied corpses, plant their flag, and claim they won the thing, and they were dragged into defending democracy in WWII by being bombed by the Japanese, over two years after the war started. Whether or not they would have actually defended Britain with the rest of us even then is debatable; Hitler declared war on them and forced the issue. Meanwhile, you were in the thing from the start with the French, the Poles, the Czechs... why favour the US in this regard?
mkwin wrote:
Given (Blair) got them to drop the 3rd world debt and, finally, admit to climate change, he did ok. Schroder and Chirac would have not achieved this in a million years.
Yeah, they also wouldn't have jumped up to help Bush murder 100,000 Iraqi civilians in a million years, either. I wouldn't crow Tony's batting average too loudly when it comes to appealing to the better angels of the US's nature if I were you.
Britain needs to get serious about being in the first tier of Europe instead of the second string of the American Empire. Canada's not as deep in the US's back pocket as Britain is, and we've been living next to them for 250 years. What's your excuse?
Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Quote:
That nod to Britain's nod to the United States effectively killed the constitution, and I'm not unconvinced the Britons who argued for it didn't plan it that way.
It was not a 'nod' to America. We got rid of that stupid socialist nonsense in the eighties and since then Britain has been one of the most successful economies in Europe. We are not free market orientated to please our supposed overlords - in fact the original free market theories were developed in the UK by Adam Smith. If the lazy French want to work 35 hours and have a nanny state fine. But I’ll be damned if some bureaucrat in Brussels is going to tell me how I can live my life and restrict my ability to generate wealth and security for my family.
Quote:
Come on; they came in the last five minutes of the first one, just long enough to run up a vast pile of Allied corpses, plant their flag, and claim they won the thing, and they were dragged into defending democracy in WWII by being bombed by the Japanese, over two years after the war started. Whether or not they would have actually defended Britain with the rest of us even then is debatable; Hitler declared war on them and forced the issue. Meanwhile, you were in the thing from the start with the French, the Poles, the Czechs... why favor the US in this regard?
They still supplied the allies from day one with everything from food to planes. If it wasn't for the US supporting Russia and the allies with aid and eventually engaging in combat, I would be living in the Third Riche now.
Quote:
Yeah, they also wouldn't have jumped up to help Bush murder 100,000 Iraqi civilians in a million years, either. I wouldn't crow Tony's batting average too loudly when it comes to appealing to the better angels of the US's nature if I were you.
Drop your Arab propaganda. The majority of the dead in Iraq since the end of the war have not been killed by the US but by extremists 'heros' blowing themselves up in packed markets.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Europe is an extremely weak position, and pitifully in denial.
Here's why:
1. European integration didn't lead to any coherent governing structure, and the proposals for a EU constitution are ridiculously unworkable.
2.There is no European vision or pan-European identity.What does the EU live for ? It was created to avoid inter-european war, but this
isn't sufficient as a destiny
3. While worrying about integrating the east (which it treats with undeserved condescension and even chauvinism), it has miserably failed to create meaningful EU-wide organizations to support major projects in science, technology, space-exploration and development.
There is no EU-wide infrastructure which would make the EU a viable political-economic-military block. Think about the lack of unified EU-wide transportation networks, the current patchwork of national networks is maddening.
4. It is clear that Europe can be powerful only if it becomes more in its organization like the United States (no, I am not American). By this I mean that it needs a federal system, federal police force, federal army, federal military and hi-tech industry, federal level educational structures, a president and parliament elected on non-national basis (through direct vote) and with sufficient power
to devise and implement EU-wide policy.
5. The EU needs a united army and unified military institutions, including a EU-wide military-industrial complex. The army need not be as large as in the US, but it needs to be lean, mean, hyper-fast, hyper-lethal and extremely hi-tech. The EU needs EU-wide military academies in place of the current network of local schools, with their ideosyncrasies. The EU also needs a continent-wide eduaction system, with clear and universally recognized structure and standards.
6. The EU needs a major program of hi-tech expansion, major development of continent-wide hi-speed data network (a well-devised, well-architected european version of Internet 2),
massive development of GPS facilities well-beyond those planned
with Galileo; continent-wide vehicle telematics, a massive crash program to building a continental network of advanced nuclear reactors, intensive research into and implementation of renewable energy sources; massive electric grid development and decentralization, a serious space programme.
7. The EU needs a massive robotics program aimed at improving manufacturing competitiveness with China and India; a massive crash program in nanotechnology and genetics.
8. The EU needs a common official language; a continent-wide news industry and journalistic education etc.
This are only a few of the things the EU would need to achieve in order to compete successfully with the US, China and India in the coming century, and to make it though the coming energy crisis.
Btu
Notify me when a reply is posted _________________ only the paranoid survive
Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:07 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
btu2012 wrote:
5. The EU needs a united army and unified military institutions, including a EU-wide military-industrial complex. The army need not be as large as in the US, but it needs to be lean, mean, hyper-fast, hyper-lethal and extremely hi-tech. The EU needs EU-wide military academies in place of the current network of local schools, with their ideosyncrasies. The EU also needs a continent-wide eduaction system, with clear and universally recognized structure and standards.
6. The EU needs...
7. The EU needs a massive robotics program...
8. The EU needs a common official language;
Far more important question is "Do member states of the union really need EU?"
You are talking much about competition with US, China, India etc.
In energy declining world such competition will hardly be relevant, sufficient time given.
You are refusing to accept simple truth that era of globalization and global competition is about to end.
Mentioned entities will largely disintegrate following relatively short period of resource wars, perhaps all out atomic war on the end etc.
Healthy stockpile of nukes will assure territorial integrity of certain member states (number of these states can easily grow soon if need arise...).
In optimistic scenario entire european scene will peacefully convert into more sustainable system, perhaps feudal/agrarian in nature while nukes will slowly "rust" (deteriorate) until they are largely unusable and irrelevant.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 153 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:46 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
I think we are missing the point of the EU really. Firstly it was dreamt up to avoid another war.
The reason Germany and France got so friendly was they were always the two countries right in the middle of the wars so logically making sure you are allies minimises this happenning again
Its all change a bit now especially with the expansion. the euro has helped a lot and (even for italy) will give long-term stability.
Everyone thinks things can get agreed in a few years. this never happens (even the US which has evolved over 250 years and had little of the centuries of baggage other countries have). To think oh well the EU will fade as it hasn't happened in 50 years is myopic.
It will take another 100 years before you get to a landing on a proper EU united under a single flag. the reason is it is a patchwork of countries with eveyone very proud of their past and need time to forget the past. eg the Dutch generally hate the Germans, the poles distrust the Germans the Brits v the french etc etc it will take several generations for the population to forget the reasons why and realise they can still keep their local customs. eg German was not a real country until fairly recently but a bavarian still says he is a Bavarian and then a German so it will be with the EU.
so it will be very short steps over many decades.
How does this link to PO. If PO happens dramatically could cause some strain. However my sense is given the more energy efficient approach the EU, it aging/dropping population etc I think the EU is one of the better placed areas to ride out the downward slope of PO.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:18 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Far more important question is "Do member states of the union really need EU?"
You are talking much about competition with US, China, India etc.
In energy declining world such competition will hardly be relevant, sufficient time given. You are refusing to accept simple truth that era of globalization and global competition is about to end.
Mentioned entities will largely disintegrate following relatively short period of resource wars, perhaps all out atomic war on the end etc.
Healthy stockpile of nukes will assure territorial integrity of certain member states (number of these states can easily grow soon if need arise...). In optimistic scenario entire european scene will peacefully convert into more sustainable system, perhaps feudal/agrarian in nature while nukes will slowly "rust" (deteriorate) until they are largely unusable and irrelevant.
In my opinion the global competiton for energy resources will be dominated by large players, such as the US, China and the
EU, in fact smaller independent players are likely to loose out due to lack of military, political and economic power.
Assuming that we survive the crisis somehow, we will still have a globalized world at least in terms of information. I do not believe that communication technology will regress, in fact I think
we will rely on it to reduce our transportation needs. I also expect that we will rely on GNR technologies to clean up the planet and reform the economy. I think we will not have feudalism on small scales, but on a global scale (the overlord will be one powerful nation), and it will be a hight-tech feudalism though of course with a lower global population and not based on fossil fuels.
You seem to expect that there will be wholesale return to local polities as a result of PO, but I find that unlikely. Instead I expect the crisis to produce a new global hegemon, and for the reasons I mentioned I think this will not be Europe. It is likely that we will see planned population control in the developed nations, and
a switch towards a controlled and rationed economy , independent of the stockmarket (it won't be capitalism in the current sense). The Mad Max scenario will only happen if we end up with nuclear war, however I think it more likely that the conflict will play out in much more insidious ways.
Regarding nukes etc, they are unfortunately the only option for any
polity (state or group of states) who wants to have a credible deterrent for the medium term future. I think that the rich nations will make a major push towards nuclear energy and robotization (robots powered by electricity) including military robots, and towards large scale teleworking.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Smudger wrote:
How does this link to PO. If PO happens dramatically could cause some strain. However my sense is given the more energy efficient approach the EU, it aging/dropping population etc I think the EU is one of the better placed areas to ride out the downward slope of PO.
Actually the EU has high population density and ecological footprint,
so it is not in a good position regarding PO. The patchwork of nations is also a serious problem. PO could act either as catalist (uniting these nations in the face of a threat to their survival) or as impetus for bickering and dissolution.
I am somewhat pessimistic about Europe's future since it has been my impression that Europeans, though better informed on average than Americans, tend to be in denial about the problems they face. In my opinion this is mostly due to the direction taken by the European left wing, which simply holds unrealistic assumptions about the situation we are facing. Because a few generations of educated people have imbibed leftist ideology after the second world war, this will make it very difficult to reach a consensus about what can be done -- an awful lot of otherwise smart people will first have to be convinced to drop their cherished illusions about what is achievable at present.
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