Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:16 pm Post subject: [Opinion] 5 Rules for PO Prep.
For a few years now I have been trying to distill my view of a few general rules folks can consider while preparing for the possibility of energy and resource depletion.
I have tried to make them as general as possible to fit as many situations as possible but of course they reflect my preconceptions and experiences.
Although resource depletion is about biology and geology – it's effect on each of us will probably be economic. Because PO will impact your personal economy first and foremost, for what it is worth here are my 5 rules:
Pops Five Don’ts:
Don't buy - Quit buying crap and learn to live on less.
Don't borrow - Get out of debt and stay out, things will go waay downhill before your creditors will quit looking for you - they will need income too and will always have the upper hand.
Don't specialize - Diversify your sources of income, it's easy to tell if your job will be hurt, but hard to be certain it won't.
Don't go hungry – Stock up and rotate necessities – not because they will become unavailable but because at some point (hopefully temporarily) you may not be able to afford them..
Don't be dependent - Try to become more independent from infrastructures of all kinds – especially those for which you have to pay.
Mine happen to be framed as Don'ts simply because they are opposite from the average American's typical life - they could just as easily be Do's.
Anyone else thought about basic guidelines for those about to rock?
{Edit to my typical spelling errors} _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Last edited by Pops on Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:56 pm; edited 3 times in total
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4112 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
For a slow grinding trip down..I would say spot on.
For a bone crushing thud I would say you have missed the mark.
My opinion - 500mph into a brick wall. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
roccman wrote:
500mph into a brick wall.
I really don’t understand how 5 words translate into 5 rules – but I guess that is my problem.
Actually roc, I asked if anyone has put some thought into useful guidelines for folks to consider, not for a knee-jerk critique of mine or some cartoon Doomeresque cliche.
But thanks for the reply. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4112 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
Ok Pops - your items covered what I considered a slow grind scenario.
For the "some cartoon Doomeresque cliche" - (I actually prefer Wiley Coyote over the cliff) here is my list:
1) get 3 days of food and water together
2) get handgun
3) pack bug out bag
4) Buy two books - Where there is no doctor; Where there is no dentist.
Did not mean to be crass, but those who lived through Katrina, the LA riots, Argintina, Russia, etc did not have the benefit of a slow grind. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4112 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
It's all good pops!!!
_________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preparation
Jack's Approach:
1) Don't buy crap. Do buy durable, quality equipment and tools that you can use in an energy-scarce world.
2) Learn to use your equipment. Whether it is a saw, a scalpel, or a bio-fuel still, practice using it now.
3) Get out of debt, unless you're prepared to default. Recognize there may be unpleasant consequences to a default.
4) Stay mobile. Don't plan on your home, your farm, or your retreat remaining secure. Or even remaining yours.
5) Trust few. People will turn on you. People will betray you. Don't give them the chance. Keep your preparations to yourself.
6) Don't buy in large or exceptional quantities. Rather, purchase bulk commodities in small batches from multiple suppliers. Use cash if possible. Use multiple payment streams otherwise. Spread the transactions out over time. Quantity discounts save a little money - but the supplier's records may target you.
7) Be friendly and smile. You don't need enemies.
8) Get weapons and ammo. Buy durable, quality equipment. Practice as if your life hung in the balance. It does.
8a) Get a quality semi-automatic rifle and automatic pistol. Get at least 1,000 rounds for the rifle, 500 for the pistol. Get a quality knife.
9) Get good, durable clothing. Do NOT look "tactical". Those who dress like a merc often reveal murky thinking. They are painting a target upon themselves.
10) Get good, sturdy footwear.
11) Get good, sturdy underwear and socks. These may be in short supply.
12) Exercise. Combine cardio and weight training. Work out like your life hangs in the balance. It does.
13) Network. Choose people who can advance your agenda. Cultivate them. Get to know them much better.
14) See your dentist. Get your teeth taken care of. Now.
15) Hang on to your job. If you're going to switch, make very sure that whatever you go to has staying power. Prepare for your job, hence your income, to evaporate. Consider carefully what you'll do if it does.
16) Have a first aid kit. Know how to use it.
17) Have at least 2 weeks full rations of food and water stored, preferably in an easily-transportable form that requires no equipment to prepare.
18) Keep additional supplies as funding permits - remember, mobility may require you to abandon it all.
19) Get some gold. Get some silver. Get at least $500 in cash. This is for emergency funds. Keep your hands off it in the meantime.
20) Enjoy the infrastructure while you can. Prepare to lose it without notice.
21) Don't get too attached to a place or community. Mobility is your friend.
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
Pops wrote:
roccman wrote:
500mph into a brick wall.
I really don’t understand how 5 words translate into 5 rules – but I guess that is my problem.
Actually roc, I asked if anyone has put some thought into useful guidelines for folks to consider, not for a knee-jerk critique of mine or some cartoon Doomeresque cliche.
But thanks for the reply.
Pops, I prefer your strategy but I also appreciate roccman's...
For example:
Lets say hypothetically there is a geology student named Roc studying in New Orleans. Roc takes classes and works at a diner in the city. He don't have a car, he just use buses or walks. Last month he got a credit card in the mail that he could use to cash out up to $6000! He figured might be good to have in the case of an emergency.
Then one day, Roc is talking with his geology professor about a big storm headed towards the city. The Geo Prof is predicting the city is going to become a fishbowl! In class he showed a video with the Army Core of Engineers talking about the problem and then canceled his classes for the rest of the week.
Roc was also talking with his friend named Dom. Dom is a business major, he suggests riding the storm out in the Superdome! Dom says it's going to be really cool! But Roc has a different plan. Roc takes his cash card and buys a used van, a mattress and goes on a road trip! Along the way he picks up a couple of hot babes hitching for a ride out of the city. And they live happily ever after.
Seriously though, there are circumstances where roccman's strategy can make sense. So I don't know how well it will work with this situation, but I appreciate it as a strategy.
Last edited by steam_cannon on Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2422 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
This ol' dog tries to put his principles in positive language.
Cur's Investment for Peak Oil:
1. Invest in infrastructure These are the durable goods other posters have talked about. A wood stove, good hand tools, food safe containers, insulated curtains, fruit trees and bushes. Whatever might be needed to live without the modern industrial complex.
2. Invest in knowledge Learn to save seeds, transfer an engine to run on alcohol, how to distill alcohol, reload ammo or whatever you think will be the needed skills to utilyze that infrastructure. If you can produce something that would be trade-able that is great also. Included in this principle is the purchase of some general homesteading books. We do not know what we will need to know so some reference to help with future problem solving (topics from geometry to field surgery to building snares) are invaluable.
3. Invest in freedom. This is the "get out of debt principle." What binds you to the system. If you do not want to go down with it you have to be able to cut yourself free as it sinks. This includes every thing that would keep you from "hitting the ground" if things blow up in our face.
4. Invest in security. For some this will be an arsenal, for others it will community building. Yet it also includes taking a lower paying but recession resistant job. I want to be able to ride the wave as long as possible.
In the real world I need to balance these. It would be great were I financially able to implement them all perfectly... if the peak holds off long enough perhaps I will. I use these principles to weigh each decision. Right now investing in infrastructure takes priority next will be the investment in freedom.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2624 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preparation
Jack wrote:
11) Get good, sturdy underwear and socks. These may be in short supply.
A few years back I discovered the joy of good socks. I had no idea that there is such a thing as good underwear. How much better then fruit of the loom can you get and what makes it better? _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:40 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
I'm west of the rockies so mine vary some, but I agree with Pops for the most part. It seems his idea in general is to hide in plain sight and live today like he would have lived before the jet age.
#1 Secure a water source.
#2 Store a years supply of food and antibiotics.
#3 Maintain first aid training
#4 Garden (verb)
#5 Join your local police reserve, or search and rescue group. _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
Jack wrote:
Jack's Approach: …
All good stuff Jack and they all make good sense – but they seem like tactics and not strategies to me.
Tell us your 5 Rules.
steam_cannon wrote:
Pops, I prefer your strategy but I also appreciate roccman's...
Naw the question is: what are your 5 Rules, SC – not who you agree with most…
Come on folks, lets not pick apart each others stuff or post crap just yet - - just put your 5 Rules out on the line. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: May 14, 2005 Posts: 2125 Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: 5 Rules for PO Preperation
Some of my top 5 have already been touched on, but ...
1. Get Healthy (or stay healthy if you already are)
2. Get out of debt (stay out of debt if you already are)
3. Cultivate a large circle of friends - you might be able to go it alone, but a tribe makes it more fun
4. Stay mentally flexible - the world of the future will be very different than today and probably very different than you think it will be
5. Simplify your life - you need less than you think you need _________________ “Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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